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The Forex Thread (FX)
hilary
- 31 Dec 2003 13:00
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qwento
- 02 Jul 2007 22:15
- 8221 of 11056
For users of the Dr Clearly's Patent Forex Spectacles which enable you to display and view the entire content of the Oxford English Dictionary on one monitor an extract from today's Rockefeller Briefing :
Y e n S a g a : While the market is swaggering around all but boasting that it has more money than the BoJ, it is at the same time mindful of actual money flows. Bloomberg reports this morning that The yen also rose on speculation Japanese investors will bring back money invested in German Bunds. Germany will pay more than 16 billion euros ($21.7 billion) in coupon and principal on government debt July 4, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In our experience, these giant payouts in various bond issues, including American ones, have only the most fleeting of effects, so we are not convinced--but you never know when a seemingly small event gets built into a bigger Event. The yen was already rising Friday afternoon from 123.50 at 10 am ET in New York to 122.95 at the close, and it proceeded to 122.38 after Europe came in (after a flat Asian session). This is only about 100 points but clearly the US and European traders see something that Asian traders do not.
In Japan, they take the too-weak yen more seriously. Major exporters are complaining to Bloomberg that they see trade friction ahead, meaning complaints from the US, particularly car-makers. The head of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry and chairman of a petrochemicals company, Mr. Yamaguchi, had said last week that The yen's excessive weakness could lead to instability. One possible response would be yen-buying intervention.'' This is the first press report of the word intervention that we have seen. Also, Japanese traders see the BoJ raising rates in August regardless of Fridays drop in even the Tokyo CPI. According to Bloomberg, 14 of 31 economists are predicting the hike then--after the Parliamentary elections but before the end-Sept half-year results. We say that if the BoJ does raise rates in August, it means a new spirit of cooperativeness between the MoF and BoJ and evidence of focus on the yen. Historically, every time this happens we get a big yen move. Carry-traders can be accidental by-standers.
Y e n S a g a : While the market is swaggering around all but boasting that it has more money than the BoJ, it is at the same time mindful of actual money flows. Bloomberg reports this morning that The yen also rose on speculation Japanese investors will bring back money invested in German Bunds. Germany will pay more than 16 billion euros ($21.7 billion) in coupon and principal on government debt July 4, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In our experience, these giant payouts in various bond issues, including American ones, have only the most fleeting of effects, so we are not convinced--but you never know when a seemingly small event gets built into a bigger Event. The yen was already rising Friday afternoon from 123.50 at 10 am ET in New York to 122.95 at the close, and it proceeded to 122.38 after Europe came in (after a flat Asian session). This is only about 100 points but clearly the US and European traders see something that Asian traders do not.
In Japan, they take the too-weak yen more seriously. Major exporters are complaining to Bloomberg that they see trade friction ahead, meaning complaints from the US, particularly car-makers. The head of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry and chairman of a petrochemicals company, Mr. Yamaguchi, had said last week that The yen's excessive weakness could lead to instability. One possible response would be yen-buying intervention.'' This is the first press report of the word intervention that we have seen. Also, Japanese traders see the BoJ raising rates in August regardless of Fridays drop in even the Tokyo CPI. According to Bloomberg, 14 of 31 economists are predicting the hike then--after the Parliamentary elections but before the end-Sept half-year results. We say that if the BoJ does raise rates in August, it means a new spirit of cooperativeness between the MoF and BoJ and evidence of focus on the yen. Historically, every time this happens we get a big yen move. Carry-traders can be accidental by-standers.
Seymour Clearly
- 02 Jul 2007 22:37
- 8222 of 11056
Bloomin 'eck. I can't read that.
ptholden
- 02 Jul 2007 22:37
- 8223 of 11056
Anyone got a bigger pair of binoculars?
Seymour Clearly
- 02 Jul 2007 22:40
- 8224 of 11056
That's better - found my specs. I recommend them.
I have, of course, no connection with the supplier of the specs, well, not much, oh alright, quite a lot really.
I have, of course, no connection with the supplier of the specs, well, not much, oh alright, quite a lot really.
foale
- 03 Jul 2007 07:53
- 8225 of 11056
Some selling into the highs this am on Cable...
hilary
- 03 Jul 2007 09:14
- 8226 of 11056
Agreed, D.
Delboy,
I emailed you yesterday in reply to your email. It's been returned undelivered this morning as it seems to be queued on your server.
Delboy,
I emailed you yesterday in reply to your email. It's been returned undelivered this morning as it seems to be queued on your server.
MightyMicro
- 04 Jul 2007 01:46
- 8227 of 11056
Hil, Mail sent. Power outage at IST Galactic HQ knocked out our Sun servers and delayed mail -- we may have lost some, although I don't think so.
MightyMicro
- 04 Jul 2007 09:27
- 8228 of 11056
Now that Hil has remembered her little attachment, a new, non-eye straining calendar has been stuffed and mounted.
Seymour Clearly
- 04 Jul 2007 10:10
- 8229 of 11056
How am I going to make a living now?
hilary
- 04 Jul 2007 17:34
- 8230 of 11056
Selling your body?
:o)
:o)
foale
- 05 Jul 2007 06:46
- 8231 of 11056
Bit of currency drift evident yesterday. Hopefully the 12:00 noon rate announcement will spare us more of that today...as we wait for NY to reopen this pm...
hilary
- 05 Jul 2007 10:34
- 8232 of 11056
Worth bearing in mind that 1.3666 was the fiber high from a couple of years ago. Could be a bit of stalling around there. We'll see.
DocProc
- 05 Jul 2007 23:02
- 8233 of 11056
foale
- 06 Jul 2007 07:37
- 8234 of 11056
cant access it at the moment...how is the dollar index doing ?
Wondering if we might be seeing a stronger $$ at least enough to get us back to test $2 to see if it now acts as a short term support level.
Wondering if we might be seeing a stronger $$ at least enough to get us back to test $2 to see if it now acts as a short term support level.
hilary
- 06 Jul 2007 09:13
- 8235 of 11056
I'm not sure if it's "intuition" or "into wishing", but it looks to me like cable might be trying to get it up.
hilary
- 06 Jul 2007 11:14
- 8236 of 11056
The jury says "into wishing". If it's to be a $2 retest, then bring it on.
MightyMicro
- 06 Jul 2007 23:52
- 8237 of 11056
OK, folks, I've posted next week's Calendar as best I can for the moment. Seymour Clearly slipped me a tenner to help out his business again. If he doesn't keep the payments up, I'll post an improved version later.
qwento
- 07 Jul 2007 00:03
- 8238 of 11056
Roll up, roll up for Dr Clearly's Patent Forex Spectacles (not that I have received any back handers or anything). Extract from the Rockefeller briefing :
Yen Saga
Attention is turning to the July 29 parliamentary election in Japan, which comes less than a month before the Aug 22-23 BoJ policy meeting where the market expects the BoJ to act.
The NKS has a front page story today that if the two coalition parties (but mostly the LDP) fail to get enough votes, Abe may feel he has to resign. This has happened twice in recent years (1989 and 1998). The bare minimum number of seats Abe needs is 40. The story says that if the LDP fails and Abe resigns, the FX market is poised to trash the yen. Its not a totally silly idea, since the LDP leads on a consumption tax hike and other fiscal measures that have real economic impact.
Meanwhile, the BoJ meets next week and while no action is expected then, all it will take is a single voice calling for a hike to provide temporary yen support. As we keep warning, the yen is not a one-way street.
Yen Saga
Attention is turning to the July 29 parliamentary election in Japan, which comes less than a month before the Aug 22-23 BoJ policy meeting where the market expects the BoJ to act.
The NKS has a front page story today that if the two coalition parties (but mostly the LDP) fail to get enough votes, Abe may feel he has to resign. This has happened twice in recent years (1989 and 1998). The bare minimum number of seats Abe needs is 40. The story says that if the LDP fails and Abe resigns, the FX market is poised to trash the yen. Its not a totally silly idea, since the LDP leads on a consumption tax hike and other fiscal measures that have real economic impact.
Meanwhile, the BoJ meets next week and while no action is expected then, all it will take is a single voice calling for a hike to provide temporary yen support. As we keep warning, the yen is not a one-way street.
MightyMicro
- 07 Jul 2007 19:33
- 8239 of 11056
Dr Clearly failed to keep the bribes coming and Hilary has sent me a legible JPEG of the Calendar, so I've put that up. Sales of reading glasses will plummet.
Seymour Clearly
- 07 Jul 2007 22:44
- 8240 of 11056
And to think I gave you all the proceeds from the sale of my body. For a few short hours the forex specs business was booming.
Some people are so fickle.
sulks in corner
Some people are so fickle.
sulks in corner
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