Well well was I to checky/lucky to sell around the top for the moment being?

Has gone down as low as 24.875p, a few games being played, but order book has gone weak on the bid side after the buyer was filled

You can analyse a stock like this to kingdom come. However, the fact is that production is years away and the most significant risk is a (massive) cost overrun in creating the mine infrastructure. Whatever the company is touting as its expenditure from here to production is highly speculative. Think Channel Tunnel.

and no, blackdown is not my alter ego :-)

re - I would dispute the overbought - 80 RSI does it for me.

The RSI was over 80 for a few days, I would advise you to look at others charts

And I can confirm that Cynic is not my alter ego

big article on this on front page today's ST Biz section
headline makes it all sound wonderful but read properly

1) cash call for £1.5bn will be needed, which is about 1.2x of the current market value of the company at 25/26p

2) the mine isn't even scheduled to start production for another 4 years and full production will not be reached until a few years after that

3) polyhalite is not straightforward potash ....... A report by AMEC two years ago called into question the commercial merits of polyhalite, as the consultant claimed there was ‘no market’ for the fertiliser product, which is something of a new entrant and had not been sold in huge volumes


so i ask again, is this really the time to be piling new money into this stock?

MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Sirius Minerals digs deep to mine in the Yorkshire Moors - Joanne Hart - The Mail on Sunday - 30 April 2017

Sirius Minerals is more than just another stock market-listed company. It is an adventure – a blend of British pioneering spirit at its best, mixed with thoroughly modern technology and a large dose of Australian perseverance.

Sirius is developing a 200-square mile mining project in the middle of the Yorkshire Moors and just a few miles from Teesside.

The site is home to the largest and highest-grade polyhalite resource in the world. Polyhalite is a top quality, multi-nutrient fertiliser that appears to have significant advantages over most conventional alternatives.

Ambitious: Sirius Minerals raised £940m last year for the 200-square mile mine near Whitby

The scheme is the biggest mining project in the UK in decades and has been compared to mine sites developed during the Industrial Revolution, in terms of its ultimate scale, national economic contribution and regional social impact.

Run by Australian former banker Chris Fraser, the company has made huge strides since Midas last looked at it in 2012, when the shares were 25p.

First, the company has quantified how much polyhalite it will be able to mine from just a small part of the overall site – 2.66billion tons or around 10million tons annually for more than 260 years. Second, it has secured full planning permission, after agreeing to more than 90 conditions, ranging from road and rail upgrades to funding for tourism.

Third, it raised $1.2billion (£940million) last November to finance construction and development costs, from a mixture of new shares, a convertible bond and a royalty agreement with an Australian company.

A group of banks is already in place to provide more cash via a loan of up to $2.6billion, supported by the Government’s UK Guarantee Scheme, which backs big infrastructure projects. And last week, the group moved from AIM to the main market of the London Stock Exchange – an unusual step for a business that will not make any money until some time after 2021. Construction has started too, so the project is really under way.

Sirius’s efforts have been extensive but the shares – having risen to more than 50p last year – are now virtually unchanged from 2012 at 25¼p. The current price certainly reflects last year’s fundraising, which involved the issue of more than 1.8 billion new shares at 20p. But there are other factors that may deter investors.

Free investing guides
The project’s sheer size and complexity may not be to everyone’s taste. Six banks, including Lloyds and RBS, have been appointed to arrange the debt facility, but they will need to bring in contributions from other lenders. Assuming they succeed, billions of pounds will be poured into the site to move it to production and, in the meantime, the company will remain loss- making.

Construction incurs further risk. The polyhalite is a mile underground and almost the entire project is being built below the surface to ensure that the mine does not become a blot on the landscape. Fraser is extremely capable, but mines are notoriously accident-prone during the construction phase.

Then there is the polyhalite itself, which is rarely seen outside North Yorkshire. The mineral provides four essential ingredients for crops – potassium sulphur, magnesium and calcium. It also appears to reduce root disease, enhance the amount of nutrients absorbed and benefit the soil.

Fraser believes he can sell his product around the world, particularly in huge crop-producing countries, such as the US, Brazil and China. Discussions are under way and some customers have already said they will buy the company’s polyhalite in the future. But Fraser still has some persuading to do.

Sirius has been testing polyhalite on 26 crops ranging from corn to cabbage since 2013

Polyhalite is cheaper than most fertilisers but it is not widely used today, so the global farming industry will need to be convinced that it does the trick. To that end, Sirius has been conducting trials since 2013, testing polyhalite on 26 crops ranging from corn to cabbage in 14 countries. So far, the results are encouraging.

If all goes well, Sirius’s polyhalite project could prove extremely rewarding for local people, British exports and investors. The company is already funding regional apprenticeships and will probably create at least 1,000 jobs once the site is up and running.

Around 500 landowners, ranging from small, Yorkshire farmers to the Crown Estate own the land on the surface of the mine and will also receive royalties once production starts.

On a national basis, polyhalite could prove to be a valuable export commodity – a top-of-the-range British fertiliser sold all over the world.

And for shareholders, a successful project and global demand would translate into profits of hundreds of millions of pounds, a soaring share price and robust annual dividends.

Midas verdict: Sirius Minerals is not a share for the faint-hearted, nor for investors seeking income in the short term. But for those who are prepared to take a risk, Sirius provides an opportunity to be part of one of the most ambitious industrial projects to come out of the UK in decades. An adventurous, long-term buy.

Sirius Minerals plc joins the main market. What should investors expect next?
Mootley Fools - Paul Summers | Friday, 28th April, 2017

At 08:00 today, shares in polyhalite miner Sirius Minerals (LSE: SXX) moved to the main market and (although still to be confirmed) a place in the FTSE 250. As the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) loses one of its nine companies valued over £1bn, what does this huge step mean for the firm and its investors?

Raised profile
Of course, the instantaneous suspension of shares on AIM and admission to the main market won’t make a difference to holders of Sirius Minerals in some respects. No new shares are being issued to coincide with the move, nor does Sirius have any intention of raising capital in this way. The company’s ticker also stays the same. That said, there are some things that definitely will change.

First, Sirius will be getting a lot more attention from fund managers both in the UK and overseas. As a result of rules preventing them from investing in any shares on the junior market, they were previously denied the opportunity of buying into the North Yorkshire success story. Even if access was previously permitted, the move to a market where corporate governance and regulation are more stringent is sure to inspire confidence in institutional investors keen to avoid career-ending decisions.

Second, the fact that index trackers and exchange traded funds will be forced to buy the stock ensures that some uplift is likely over time. This will happen regardless of how risky the company is regarded as being by those running these passive vehicles. And with that comes even greater liquidity.

Third, the move is likely to raise the company’s profile in a more general sense and beyond the investment community. Indeed, CEO Chris Fraser and his management team were keen to stress that entry into the main market would not only provide the company with a “more appropriate platform for its growth” but also be in keeping with the “nationally significant nature” of its project.

Of course, none of the above mean that the share price must soar. That will be dictated by the company’s performance and, for the next few years, progress with the construction of the Woodsmith mine. On this front, however, all seems to be going smoothly, explaining why shares in Sirius have jumped 49% in only a month. Investors will be hoping for more of the same after the next quarterly update, due at the end of June.

Of course, a successful move to the main market is never guaranteed. While some companies have thrived, a number have faltered. Falling firmly in the former camp would be Domino’s Pizza, self-storage mid-cap Big Yellow and online betting company, GVC. In the latter, you might include clothing retailer Bonmarche and Gulf Keystone Petroleum. Some companies have even returned to the junior market over the years.

One thing that investors must also be aware of is that they will now be required to pay Stamp Duty Reserve Tax whenever they purchase stock in Sirius. Right now, this is calculated at a flat rate of 0.5% (rounded up or down to the nearest penny) based on how much is paid. Buying £5,000 worth of stock in Sirius today will therefore set you back £25 more than it would have done yesterday (£5,000 x 0.05%). As always, commission costs and the bid/ask spread also need to be considered.

mentor - i see you voice no view :-) ..... can't say i blame you

no question that SXX is a very interesting stock, but as i have said previously, with so many major unknowns is this really the time to be piling new money into this stock?

it certainly would not surprise me to see sp at half the current price before production starts, not least because there is further heavy dilution on the foreseeable horizon

The Sunday Times article - Yorkshire moors’ hidden harvest

The Mail on Sunday article - MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Sirius Minerals digs deep to mine in the Yorkshire Moors

i wrote about the ST article yesterday

my view remains constant

cynic
I'm still here from under 19p still looks a good long term play to me..

if you're already in at 19p then there is reason to stay put
my comment was about throwing in new money

Have topped up twice since at 22.58p and 24.75p

I think it's a case of "an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?"......:o)

Unstovable. New word with many interpretations, a bit like the future of SXX! I am holding for the long term.

i shall just put on my watchlist and try to remember to look occasionally

Seems the 200 DMA was too much of a barrier.

Anything that goes up more than 50% must go down eventually, and that was the case last Friday.

Yesterday movement up was an opportunity to sell due to weekend positive views long term, some times some paper/writers are being paid by Individuals to do that in order to get out because they missed the chance to close positions in time in its high

Intraday low 16.75p
Intraday high 26.625p
Dif - up 9.875p or up 59%

Another down day. Sub 22p would interest me again for a buy.