A busy day in the Warsaw Underground !

Not just another coffee shop chain - this one is a brand leader and is only trading in Eastern/Central Europe (i.e. the countries recently admitted to the EU destined for substantial business growth). The company is creating new outlets at a fair old pace and take a look at their website - these are quality stores in high-profile locations like major airports, railway stations etc. Website: http://www.coffeeheaven.eu.com

APRIL 2006 TRADING UPDATE!!! Total Gross Revenues for 12 months to 31st March up 66% to £6.3M (2005: £3.8M) Lots more info. on new markets and stores click here to read the full details. Stores: 43 (up from 32) stores currently trading (Poland: 30 (up from 23), Czech Republic: 6 (Up from 2), Latvia: 7 with a further 5 units under construction including Bulgaria and sites secured in Romania (subject contract). Bulgaria & Romania are seeking to join the EU from January 2007. Sites located in key high street, shopping malls or Airport locations. Company growth target: increase number of units by at least 20 units to some 63 units by 31 March 2007. Aim being to achieve this level of growth within present Cash resources.Cash balances at 31 March 2006 were approximately £2.9M (2005: £0.7M). Debt was nil (2005: £ 2.5M): Nil Debt! Positive EBITDA: For the year ending 31 March 2006, Group EBITDA expected to be firmly positive after charging UK and new market development costs but before exceptional costs relating to the cancellation of bonds (previous Debt). Forecasts: Based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates we anticipate indicative sales of £9.3M for the year to 31 March 2007. This includes indicative sales of £0.4M from Bulgaria, which will be reported but not consolidated. From Richard Worthington (Chairman and Chief Executive): ‘The new financial year has started well. There is no doubt that the significant economic improvement in our markets is feeding through to consumer confidence and spending. The strength of the coffeeheaven brand ensures we are ideally positioned to benefit from our customers' increasing prosperity.’

Come on Waxman we know its you, you really should consult a Doctor about yr Alto Ego... Remember me from iii I was the one prepared to meet you at the AGM but you didn't/wouldn't turn up... If you feelings about RW are so strong I will ask for special permission for you to attend the next one as my guest.. Have an absolutely spiffing weekend dear chap... you do make me smile... xx

Dear AdieH

I can really understand your frustrations, honestly, and I can understand how you are seeing your dreams of hitting the jackpot with COH whither, as does the SP.

CFE entering these markets also does not help you.

If you do not wish to me to post here on the COH tread, then why do you keep coming back with such outlandish, illfounded, provocative claims and statments which prompt a reply????

I am lost to you on that point, unless you, as I do, enjoy the entertaining banter.

However fior the moment, you sir are acting as if deluded from reality. I have no idea who or what Waxman is. Perhaps he was your bad boggyman childhood dream? However I can assure that I am not a reincarantion.

It appears that you and your cohorts are incable of holding a rational discussion without being insulting. I have no problem with that if that is your style, we must all try to live and let live, beside that, after a career in education my skin is quite thick I can assure you.

However, its all perfectly understandable when one considers that even the COH house brokers Numis have called it wrong and are most apologetic on the COH web site( kindly observe that no one is above market forces), copied and pasted, with full acknowldgement, below viz:

NUMIS
coffeeheaven

Attractive buying opportunity

coffeeheavens share price has fallen 10% in the last week. We believe this share price fall is unjustified as the fundamentals for our investment case remain as strong as ever.

Successful placing
Strong macroeconomic environment
New stores / new markets
Strong LFLs
Valuation
A glimpse of the future
Read more in the full report...

Well Sir I have read the report and for the benefit of Proteus who has asked my opinion on the future of COH earnings I respond thus forth:

Coffeheaven has currently 65 stores. In my opinion, given the leasehold costs and start up costs, each store should now be netting at a very minimum, a clear 1000 pounds per week. This is a undemanding profit target, and again in my opinion if each store could not make this small amount it would hardly be worth getting up and opening up for (I base my figures on a fast food franchise, that I am familiar with and currently considering a small participation in).

Therefore with 65 stores, each netting a 1000 pounds per week, we are looking at a proposed nett anual profit of 3,250,000.00 pounds

Before moving on to future projections, I have a simple straightforward question, WHERE IS THIS MONEY?

Forget about EBITDA that figure mean absolutely nothing, lets get down to the bottom line as if your expenses are eating your take then you have nothing, and that is what I contend COH to have.

I would conceed that COH apepars to have a strong LFL sales growth, but as said with no substantial bottom line COH is not working for its shareholders, but working to pay its runing costs.

Unless COH can come forward with positive NETT profit forecasts, (and why not as its seem to be good with all other forecasts) then they can open a million coffee bars as far I would be concerned, as they mean nothing without profits!

Numis has a target price of 66p and a longer reaching projection of 100p per share for 2011, Very very bravely put as at the same time they acknowledge that the branded coffee bar market is set to grow in Central and Eastern Europe.

That means the stiff competition will flow into the COH operating area to naturally follow the potential profits!

Capitalism Sir, does not, and will, not stand still.

Now to be a realist COH has not done that well in delivering profits when it was in an unchallenging market, and leader therein, I do not believe that COH can match, let alone beat any compentant competition.

However that is only my view as I see it. I think that CFE going down the franchise route, as it is, will fair much better and offer its shareholders a more positive progressive mangement style with ultimately a better ROC.

Again its only an opinion.

WHY NOT WAIT WATCH AND SEE?

The market is always right in the long run, and for the moment it is saying the SP of COH is too high, of course that may change in the long run and prove my thesis that the current SP is way too over valued and is seeking its true level, to be wrong

I believe the market is telling us that after 7 years trading COH now needs to be showing profits in millions each year.

Have a really nice long weekend, I am trusting for some good weather to get the new roof on.

You really are a sad loser David, I would suggest you get a life and a hobby as you spend way too much time on here considering your view of COH. Would suggest you get a life and experience also... I am a man of my word and will not continue to post here but will continue a balanced debate on iii where I know you are banned "WAXMAN".... I do hope our paths cross and we meet at some stage maybe at COH AGM but I doubt it because your one of those sad people that hide behind a name on a bulletin board... for someone who has retired you act like a child and i'm begining to doubt you were ever in education... you are a hyprocrite as you said you would let the SP do the talking but continue to post here... I will also inform IanT once again and hope to have you banned or removed for the sake of others on this thread... R.I.P...

Aidie

Everybody knows that Dave the Rave is a numpty who has slagged off COH and the directors since he jumped ship when the SP was 18p.

He is such a muppet that even a newbie can see through him and his rantings that have never affected the SP in any way.

Treat him as an idiot as we all do.

Oh dear the child emerges or children emerge.

What you say in fact is that one can have a point of view as long as it agrees with yours.

This really is very sad.

You have my views on a company that you continue to ramp up and in reality has no intrinisic value!

Unless of course you can show this BB different, which of course I would like you!
to.

You continue to ramp this company solely as you are a shareholder(s) and in order to protect your personal interest only.

You care nothing for others whom you may influence.

When I first posted here on COH it was only because of your ramping and then you said---


AdieH - 04 May 2007 17:05 - 568 of 832
Yes institutions willing to pay the current sp for shares, director is topping up again (he knows a thing or two)... Would like to know where the captial is going but hey trust RW with my dosh... Target of 1.00 for me and hopefully within the year... Good Luck.

A pound within a year????? And of course iii other holders like nodding donkeys agreed with you. But of course this is nopt practical to achieve without turning the all important PROFITS!

Read the postings on iii, a continue round of "browen holing"

A rampers Hevaven.

Only one person could see the fall that was me and I said so-In doing so sending you shareholders into a wave of shell shocked insulting threatening posts.

Its amazing what people will do in order to prectect their capital not even caring about others who have been locked into this share at 50p ish.

MANY NO DOUBT INFLUENCED BY THE CONTINUED RAMPING ON III

AND MY JOKER FRIEND EVEN NUMIS CALLED THIS DOG SHARE WRONG!!!!!

AND YOU CAN NOT DENY THAT!!!

So you may slag me off if you wish,. assume I am your nightmare the waxman, assume I held COH (which is rather a laugh). Assume that I am Jack the Ripper or the nautical version, Jack the Kipper.

In fact assume what you wish.

As what remains a constant is that while you ramp this share, and call me names it also reamains a fact that I was only one to call it right!

I said it was a falling knife and it is---ITS DOWN TO WHEN I FIRST POSTED!!!.

That my warped friends is all that counts in this game----- calling it right and not calling names.

Until COH sees a 1000 pounds per week nett profit per store, then clearly it should not be in business.

Have a look at CFE, they seem to have it right.

I will now have a great weekend after making you nice very special people think just a little bit harder.

So while the share price of COH dithers, please continue to treat me as the idiot who politely requested ages ago that you let the SP do the talking.

I trust you enjoy thing as much as me.

Oh dear resorted now to calling me the waxman on iii. How desperate can one get?

40p+ once again for COH is just around the corner...do you agree Dave the Rave.

Could well be, but then so is 30p and I would not gamble on COH in any event!

I have made my point, not really much more to said unless of course you like going around in circles.

Have a really nice day.

I trust the weather holds for the long weekend, although it does not look too good.

Dave the Rave...is it going to rain in Naples.

Look out for the rats.....LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

There are 4 brokers covering this share Numis,Seymore Pierce,Shore Capital and Wood &Co. Three have it as Strong Buy the 4th has not put out a note recently.You seem to be running against the market view 10B.

Probably so.

However if NUMIS caught a cold then the others must be sneezing right now too, and the fouth in quarantine---just in case!

But that said, surely you mean the brokers are out of step with the market!

I said the price will go down and it was the market, not the brokers' hype, that obliged me with a fall in the COH SP

If you think they should be making 1k / week net that is 3.38m on their present 65 stores and 4.68m on the forcast 90 stores for next year. With a rapidly growing company that would support a P/E of say 25.On that basis the share price would now be 82p + and based on looking a year ahead which is the min time that markets look at they would be 100p +. Seems as if your expectation of 1k / store is excessive.

A month ago it was 1 buy /1 sell so the recent correction has made 1 change its mind and another to come in with a strong buy.Are they all wrong in thinking that at this price it's very good value ?

Come. come, come my dear chap, back street pubs make that kind of money, otherwise what is the point of opening?

You may as well get a roofing job

SEE WHAT A SUB SANIE STORE MAKES!

A month ago it was held up on hype, now the market has obviously corrected it!

Dave the Rave...this will be back to 40p+ very soon, where as CFE will go down when the news dries up.

Have a nice day.

Be nice just to wait and see.

Well I'm off for an afternoon tipple....but I will be back.

Please do enjoy one and have one for me.

Maybe you should make 1k / week net in the UK who knows. It's interesting to note the Polish GDP / head last year was $14100 vs UK at $31400.If you apply that ratio to the 1k week it works back to a fair price of 45p based on next years earnings.The market always over/under shoots so it overshot at 50p and has now dropped back too far at 37p.I think without checking the Numis figure for store numbers in 2010/2011 that would also fit with their 1 target.