TORONTO (Reuters) - 18/02/10 "Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) said on Thursday it will spin off its African gold assets into a new publicly traded company.
Barrick announced the moves as it unveiled a doubling of fourth-quarter operating profit, driven by gold prices that soared to record levels in the final three months of 2009.
The new company, to be called African Barrick Gold (ABG), will list on the London Stock Exchange and will hold Barrick's African gold mines and exploration properties. Barrick plans to retain a 75 percent interest in ABG initially.
ABG also intends to seek a future listing on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange in Tanzania.
Barrick, the world's top gold producer, operates four African mines, all in Tanzania.
ABG is expected to produce 800,000 to 850,000 ounces of gold in 2010, with total reserves of 16.8 million ounces as of December 31.
"Size-wise it's bigger than (mid-tier miner) Randgold Resources (RRS.L) and certainly it would be... one of the prime gold listings on the LSE," said Leon Esterhuizen, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in London.
Due to the spinoff, Barrick trimmed its 2010 production forecast to a range of 7.6 million to 8.0 million ounces from its previous estimate of 7.7 million to 8.1 million ounces.
Barrick said it plans to use proceeds from the ABG spinoff to fund its pipeline of development projects.
PROFIT RISES, TOPS ESTIMATES
Excluding a $241 million charge related to the hedge book buyout and other one-time items, fourth-quarter earnings rose to $604 million, or 61 cents a share, from $277 million, or 32 cents a share, a year earlier.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S had expected, on average, 57 cents a share.
On a net basis, Barrick earned $215 million, or 21 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $468 million, or 53 cents a share.
Revenue jumped 13 percent to $2.36 billion.
Average realized gold prices in the quarter were $1,119 per ounce, up from $809 a year earlier, as the metal charged to a record price above $1,200 an ounce in the final months of the year. This offset the impact of a 17 percent drop, to 1.8 million ounces, in the amount of gold Barrick sold .
Total cash costs per ounce, which Barrick expects to come down as it opens new lower-cost mines, were little changed at $474.
Barrick expects 2010 gold production costs in a range of $425 to $455 per ounce. In 2009 it produced 7.42 million ounces at a total cash cost of $466 per ounce."
($1=$1.04 Canadian)
The deal, arranged by J.P. Morgan (JPM.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), will run a bookbuilding between March 5 and March 18.

London’s leading gold forecaster: gold to average $1321 in 2015
By Tom Winnifrith | Saturday 17 January 2015

Over the past 15 years Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley has been the forecaster with the best record in the LBMA for predicting gold price moves so you should take his gold price forecasts seriously. Ross writes, "We are going out on a limb this year." Indeed.

AVERAGE : $1321

HIGH : $1450

LOW : $1170

If markets move on what you don't know today, but will know tomorrow then it follows that many factors such as a US interest rate rises should already be factored into the current price... it also begs the question what the new drivers for 2015 will be. We see ongoing declines in economic growth prompting central banks to fight deflation by resorting to inflationary pressures in H2.

If our outlook for gold in dollar terms is bullish, in emerging currencies it may be even more so as investors seek to insure or hedge against currency debasement. As such, we foresee good demand for the physical.

Most annoyingly for bulls in 2014, gold exhibited 'rally fade' despite a global economy that was as fragile as ever. Our forecast is predicated on gold becoming price inelastic (as it was in the early 2000's) and able to sustain the momentum. I say annoyingly because arguably never before have savers potentially so needed an asset with the wealth preservation qualities that gold provides ... yet the price performance these last few years has disappointed.

In short, we see gold demonstrating that it has turned a corner and investor flows return with a vengeance, aided by short covering and fresh longs in the futures markets. Perhaps most disappointingly though we are unlikely to see runaway prices beyond the $1450 level without either significant new product innovations or without the sort of black swan events in the economy that few of us would wish for.

SILVER

AVERAGE : $18.56

HIGH : $21.75

LOW : $14.50

With a firm outlook for gold, it follows that our expectations for silver would be similar ... and a little more so... such is silver's propensity to follow gold in a exaggerated fashion. Investors will take comfort from

silver ETF holdings which have remained firm (unlike gold) coupled with retail sales of the physical coins and bars which have remained robust.

Even mine production looks set for a modest decline back to levels last seen in 1999. With 75% of silver being produced as a by-product of base metals mining, the weaker global economy may well prompt some cut-backs in mining those host metals. Equally, demand from industrial applications will be correspondingly weaker, but investors (... or more likely speculators) are normally on hand to fill the void.

Like gold, silver does seem to struggle to sustain momentum to the upside as it experiences 'rally fade' for this reason we do not see the likelihood of runaway prices just yet.