rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Davai - 07 Jun 2012 21:10 - 8320 of 8342

All looks too much to me like nothing more than ABC pullbacks right now...

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This is what i meant;

Indices have been quite easy to read during the last few trading days. Got the 100 point pull back on the Dow as predicted but the rally on Friday came earlier than I expected. Plenty of upside for the next few days.

Here are my current thoughts as to the Dow. The FIB levels are reproduced from the length of 'A' (not seen to the left of the chart), it looks as though we have completed a full ABC retrace within the uptrend, with the first part ('A') of the correction starting 27th March. This is of course, speculative, but the FIB levels have been deadly accurate for the whole of wave C.
I'm looking for the last Lower High (prev wave 4 as per chart), to be breached tonight/tomorrow for further confirmation, then we can look for a large ABC retrace to begin. This can be sharp/shallow, zigzag/flat or irregular, but if it forms a clear 3-3-5/5-3-5 and doesn't make a fresh low, we are in business for a Higher High to come in a month or so's time and higher for the rest of the summer at least...

Sound crazy with everyone expecting new lows with all the Spain/Euro probs??? Yep that's how it will catch everyone out. I would expect the ABC to be a deep zigzag, just to scare everyone, but if no LL, we are good to go.

here's the chart;

Thank you Davai,
I think $125bln more money in circulation should improve the sentiment. It appears that Greece will stay in Euro and follow the rules whatever the outcome of the vote is.

The British Banks are benefitting from all the problems in Euro as they are considered more reliable than most European banks. They have not been affected, but have been discounted so much based on those issues. As world population is increasing fast, mainly in China and the rest of Asia, we should see higher demand for all products around the world.

the brave, the nimble-footed and the outright liars will have made a nice bundle today shorting the indices first thing - i didn't!

made an acceptable profit on AAPL/GOOG so have banked same ...... markets remain unconvinced and disinclined to move north, so felt like a prudent move

Time to go long

hmm ..... poor call so far this evening, though that is only a few hours

ouch! .... a really nasty late sell-off ..... 1st thing this morning cash dow was +175; as we close tonight, it's -145 ...... like i said, glad i banked a bit of profit earlier this evening

Poor call, why? As a trade it was 30 points or so in profit and was closed out at break even. It's not rocket science but time To reassess.

All about Spain now I presume? Seems absurd that at the open everyone is saying how good it is that Spain have obtained a bailout and then reality sets in and half way through the day everyone realises that yet another bailout isn't going to work! No logic at all, imo.

If ever there was a case of rueing with hindsight - yesterday was it - I'm just annoyed with myself that I didn't make more of it.

very surprisingly (to me), ftse looking to open effectively unchanged

chuckles is clearly a very clever chap indeed .... even if he made no money on last night's escapade, he did unbelievably well ..... i am currently out of rhythm with the indices - i.e. if i traded them, i'ld have the timing wrong even if the general direction right - so have pretty much stopped trading them for now

Cynic,
The number of companies has been reducing over the last five years, but the demand and population has been rising.

Many of these companies are like gold now and worth much higher than these prices. The fall has been based on "fear", much of it unjustified.

Not sure how this will play out, but further to the previous chart, things are going according to plan. I am looking for two touchpoints one for a flag for a long set-up (blue line), but i also think we will build a bigger one for a short play later (red line)
I'm fairly certain that we have just seen a 5w move long and printing the abc that i expected as per the last chart. The very least we can expect therefore is another 5w move north once the corrective move finishes...

peccavi! ...... have had a small dabble long dow at 12446 on the basis that europe did not fall o'night and has had a modestly successful morning

cynic - 12 Jun 2012 07:03 - 8353 of 8356

chuckles is clearly a very clever chap indeed .... even if he made no money on last night's escapade, he did unbelievably well .....

Yes cynic, you should say clever, but then I have given you three trades, of which two banked 100 plus points each and the third a few.

I only post on here cos I'am a fan of davais (and then) from another site. Mind you, all this elliot wave stuff does make me chuckle.

PS You might want to consider buying some squids as opposed to green backs, but wait a bit first mind.

thanks, but i pretty much follow my own inclination and have never understood trading forex and have always avoided .... btw, i have also know davai for a number of years

There's a strong possibility of us having been in an irregular 4th corrective wave, of which we may have finished at the high on Sunday night. The drop and subsequent rebound therefore would be Waves 1&2 of the next move down. If so we might be getting close to the turn now and things might start to look horrible again soon...



We are sat on the 50% retrace right now, i will run a few fibs in a mo to try to get a better picture. The FTSE version of above looks far more obvious.

*Edit*

Christ, as unlikely as it looked, i am now sure the above is correct. Wave 'B' is 200% of 'A' and wave 'C' is 261.8% (very popular) length of 'A'. In my opinion we have several hundred points to drop over the coming couple of weeks...