Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

foale... that 120 goal was only 15 points shy.. well done!

thanks SM

staying with that Yen long for the moment...
not much movement over night...

whoops...stopped out of Yen...

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The yen rallied hard from two-week lows against the dollar on the news that France's biggest bank has frozen three asset-backed securities funds.

Analysts said the move by BNP Paribas has provided a reminder that the sub prime fall out story has further to run and concerns clearly remain about the prospect of forced liquidations into an unreceptive market place.

The yen has been the main beneficiary from the BNP fall-out as it had been under pressure from the renewed appetite for so-called carry trades earlier.

'Markets are taking this latest news seriously with the risk appetite on the back foot and the yen sharply higher with swap spreads also back on the ascent,' said David Corbell, analyst at IFR Markets.

Carry trades had been back in vogue as stock markets around the world have recovered following this week's rate-setting meeting at the US Federal Reserve. Though the FOMC did not indicate that borrowing costs will be falling any time soon, it painted a relatively positive picture about the US economy.

'As risk appetite has returned, the dollar has come under renewed pressure against most major currencies, with the notable exception of the yen, which has suffered as carry trades have resumed,' said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange research at Calyon.

The yen has suffered on the foreign exchanges for much of this year on the expectation the Bank of Japan will not aggressively raise interest rates any time soon, thus allowing investors to borrow at the super-low rates in Japan in the pursuit of higher-yielding rewards elsewhere.

Analysts said risk appetite and developments on credit and equity markets are likely to remain the main drivers in currency markets over the rest of the week given the dearth of major economic news.

'The fundamental picture still suggests dollar weakness will continue, while the pick-up in risk appetite increases pressure on the dollar further,' said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at Commerzbank.

As a result, he expects the euro to test its all-time high against the dollar of 1.3852 usd ahead of the weekend.

Other analysts remain more positive about the dollar's prospects though.

Calyon's Kotecha thinks that the euro looks 'extremely overvalued' against the dollar and doubts that the single European currency can sustain its gain over coming months as relative growth and interest rate differentials become less favourable.

Ddespite the slight pick-up in risk appetite, Kotecha thinks the the general environment of higher risk aversion is likely to persist for some time.

'The dollar will benefit from safe haven demand given its strong correlation with risk aversion,' said Kotecha, who expects the euro to end the year at around the 1.32 usd mark.

stg/ Yen provides some lol..volatility last week....
that was a wild ride. Never really time to post with all that was going on...

Will post more this week...especially if others would keep me Company...


Info: .for those using FXCM..there is an upgrade allowing for 1 click trading...
possibly other things too...allow time for downlaod installation and customising..as you cant use the software til you have done it..

foale..
I have been in and out of the yen all week, took a real smack twice, got it all back but yep - what a ride!

Interactive Calendar updated by the Forex Fairy in Hil's absence -- you know what they say: absinthe makes the heart grow fond. Absinthe -- also known as la F Verte "the Green Fairy" ;-)

Are all the FX traders on holiday?

foale
I've temporarily been playing with the FTSE and DOW - just like old times - been ages since I abandoned them for FX. Will be back when it gets a little less volatile on the indices :)

Also just back F, but no position. Will get back in soon.

Small short in cable...this am

Well good morning :)
I'd like to be long cable, and it's currently bimbling along one of my downslopey thingies around 2.0070s on the 2hr - but it's within 100 points or so of upslopey support on the daily. And CPI beckons.

hi choccy....you up to posting a chart..of your upslopey and down slopey

foale
Another good call - was looking to go long around the 20080 mark - have just tried one @20000

Ok I don't do forex but do stuff on gold which is not going great at the moment so a question for you guys in your area of expertise - is the dollar looking better this week then it was? as this could explain golds lack of oommppphh :>)

2.000 obvious support...but also 1.9950 on the daily...

UK July inflation falls to 1.9%

The UK's rate of inflation slowed to 1.9% in July, well below analysts' forecasts.
The cost of living measured by the Consumer Price Index dropped sharply from June's level of 2.4%, helped by a supermarket price war.

It is the first time UK inflation has fallen below the government's target of 2% since March 2006.

The Retail Price Index, another inflation measure, fell to 3.8% in July from 4.4% the previous month.

Forex - Pound falls as UK inflation dips below BoE target rate UPDATE


(adds analyst comment)
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The pound fell after news that inflation fell
below the Bank of England's target rate, dipping under the crucial 2 dollar
level briefly.
The data weighs on the chances of further rises in UK interest rates.
"The unexpected drop takes the wind out of the Bank of England's sails,"
said David Brown at Bear Stearns.
"Even though the BoE remains in hawkish mode, it will have a hard time
justifying a further hike in rates especially set against the current troubled
financial market backdrop," he added.
He believes the view that UK rates have peaked at 5.75 pct where it now
stands will keep the pound under the psychologically important 2 dollar figure.
The Office for National Statistics said the annual CPI inflation rate
slumped to 1.9 pct in July from 2.4 pct in June, well below analysts' forecasts
for a decline to 2.2 pct.
This is the lowest CPI rate since March 2006 and is also the first time
since that date that inflation has been below the 2.0 pct level that the Bank of
England is charged with targeting.
At 9.52 am BST the pound was at 2.0008 usd, after dipping to 1.9997 usd
briefly. Ahead of the data the pound was trading at 2.0068 usd.

Hmmmmmm - moved my stop up to entry - it looks to be struggling to stay above 50p after the CPI news.

EDIT - that didn't take long - stopped out @ 20000

stockbunny, from MoneyWeek this morning.

"Gold is a barometer for monetary problems of all sorts. Its price rises whenever there are worries about inflation, bank problems, a credit bubble bursting or whatever, because people opt for the safety of gold. Like a canary in a coal mine, a rising gold price warns of troubles ahead. That's why central banks have been capping the gold price, which explains why gold isn't flying higher as one would expect it should be doing as the monetary troubles mount.

As the subprime woes mounted this past week, gold did finally rise sharply on Friday, but most of this week central bank capping efforts got a helping hand. When banks sell collateral after margin calls are not met, the most liquid and easy to sell assets go first, and gold is always in that category. Its unparalleled liquidity is one of gold's attributes. By selling gold margin clerks were throwing the baby out with the bathwater, but that mentality changed by Friday.

The margin selling was done, and central bank selling was not enough the keep the tidal wave of buying from driving gold higher, that is, at least until after the London pm fix. With the physical market closed, central banks did manage to 'circle the wagons' and keep gold from climbing any higher the rest of Friday. But the following chart indicates that the underlying buying pressure may be too strong for central banks to keep a lid on gold at these prices much longer."