ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

I searched for the analysists report but got nowhere, well done that man!!!

Lucky old willfagg - right on the ball!

Perhaps worth clarifying my point about 'inverse trading' tomorrow compared with today. There will be a lot of favourable press comment tomorrow based on the analsts presentation. They will pick up on the internet story with the build-up of sales for the Christmas season. They will pick up on Miss Sixty because it demonstrates how ASOS can beat the retail shops because of low overheads. And it will not just be the 'serious' press but the Mail, Express etc. who target these young ladies and who have featured ASOS in the past.

So there will be buyers around in the morning and the MMs may mark up the price as a precaution. The price will jump back into the 80s. This will bring back all those who want to take profits; anyway, if you were in at 10p, why stick around for the last 50% or so? But the price will stay above 80p and will move a bit either away depending on the preponderence of buyers or sellers. So what to do if you're a buyer? Get in at 8:01 but don't chase the price up as it should come back as there must still be sellers around who would have liked to sell today but didn't like the price. By the time the buy recommendations come in from the weeklies and Sunday's, the sellers should have gone away to spend their proceeds at ASOS, the buyers will predominate and the price will move elegantly into the nineties. You could say that the statistics will be good; the shape of the curve attractive! A round pound before Xmas; no doubt about it!

There it is in a nutshell. Really sexy!

Eric

EW:
Good reasoning, good logic, Eric, but Sexy ?????????????

Sorry SEADOG, it was the sexy young things in their ASOS dresses which were in my mind's eye!

Eric

Agree completely EW but you had me worried !!!!

dear EW
i assume the "right on the ball" had a mere hint of sarcasm relating to my comments sbout the share price movements following results announcements. Still I accept that many people who post on here are much more experienced than myself and appreciate their views including your own.Without doubt these views do enable one to get a more balanced view and ultimately make improved decisions

after my wrong assumptions of yesterday my concern today is why at 70p arent people buying like crazy. two weeks ago investors would have killed to get this price(IMO)

Anyone got anything on this?

Correct me if I am wrong, as I may have mis calculted, but the RSI says 'Buy' the Bollinger Banding says 'Buy'... The report looked good, so 'Buy'.

From a chart view, the MA10 has not hit the MA50 which has seemed to spark the recovery in the past... I am wondering if anyone else is thinking the same as me... that we may have a few more days of decline before recovery (while the MA values sort themselves out), or that the shares will hit a support value of around 60p before recovery... but I dunno... I'm still new to this!

I have already been proved wrong by the price falling to 70p, and your assessment about needing to fall to 60p before it MA50 is hit may be correct . However this company is exceeding all its targets and has yet again just unveiled very impressive results. Now even allowing for some profit taking ( and it is Xmas) a 21% price drop over 14 days on a share that is performing out of its skin seems an unlikely candidate fora further 10 p reduction before buying kicks in.(IMO) I would have thought that 70 p was a bargain that i am surprised is still on offer, but price movements never cease to amaze me and frustrate the pants off me

willfagg

The "right on the ball" certainly did not have any sarcasm about it - rather envy! No spare funds! I suspect you were also right to get out of YOO straight away and switch the funds into ASC. Right?

I sometimes wonder where so-called 'experience' gets you! I suspect it gets you to a position of better judgement in hindsight! In my post yesterday, I argued for the 'inverse' trading shape today. What happens? Almost the exact replication of yesterday. Initial mark-up with a 50K trade before opening. A balance of early selling drops the price. Buyers thereafter predominate but price fails to make much headway. In fact, a further drop around 10:50 giving another buying opportunity below 70p.

Price now starting to make headway again. So where does it go from here? Need to be careful about the wishful thinking! But, here goes! Since yesterday morning, sales have been over 5% of the equity and buys closer to 6%. Selling most likely to be profit-taking (could be the bears but I suspect that to be too risky). My argument is that we will run out of sellers but the buying will go on because of positive publicity; small investors will want a stake; the share is getting large enough cap. to attract the institutions. It just needs one session, or part of one session, with buyers heavily exceeding sellers for the price to really move ahead. I suspect the chartists (??) will read it that way too. I bloody well hope so with my cfd's looking a bit sick!

Eric

FT article entitled "Celebrity fashions put ASOS into the black".

Article refers to the launch of own label in March. "This will take our women's wear range to the next level," Nick Robertson said. Also predicted "...healthy Christmas profits as more shoppers decided to avoid the crush on the high street and shop online". John Stevenson, analyst with Shore Capital, described the results as solid: "There looks like there is still good growth in the company".

FT Comment:

ASOS is cashing in on the growing hordes of consumers sho want to look like theri favourite celebrities. The increase in turnover and number of subsribers is encouraging, and there is still scope to raise the margins while the move into own-label should help. Further expansion is also expected to come from the proposed doubling of lines from 1300 over the next 12 months. With a full-year profit forecast of some 1.5m, the shares are on a pricey multiple of about 36 times. This falls slightly to 24 times next year. Those who missed the boat earlier may be kicking themselves, but there does look like some potential for growth."

EWR comment:

My calculations previously make the profit forecast look cautious and a 50% uplift for next year looks doubly so (the Internet fashion market overall will be increasing by that sort of figure). However, sensible to set numbers you can beat! There does not appear to be any cloud on the horizon!

Eric

Lovely blue this morning! 40 minutes and 400K buys including the 'unknowns' which are obviously buys. If 'Evil' has been short-selling, he reckons he's onto a loser; sorry, winner!

jgt

How's the FTSE100 program going? If you're still reading, a follow up on CFDs. Down a fair bit although this trend will set things straight. What policy to you follow? (a) do you limit the position in terms of the overall risk; e.g. do you say the worst that can happen with ASC is that they drop back to 60p and know how you will fund the losses? (b) is there any argument for closing a position if you are confident of a rising trend - the costs are higher than wih on-line trading but you have to factor in the cost of overnight money. All the best and many thanks in anticipation!

Eric

Eric: If it helps I did think of you when the ASOS SP fell after the recent announcements because of your gearing. I think myself some of the fall was from profit taking, and some punters fell that the stock is perhaps toppy with a fully rated P/E. Still what do I know as I am not a fundamentalist by nature! With regard to CFD's, I think you have to take into account the gearing you take on when deciding the SL. I never set a SL when I am in the cash market, but always do with CFD's. Now with respect to ASOS I have used the 50 day m.a. as a simple SL positiopn, plus a 'bit'. The 'bit' I use is because I want to avoid being stopped out of a position as the MM's take the SP down to that level. To make this even simpler, use the MonayAM charting package and play with the m.a. feature set. You can change the m.a. lines and find one that fairly accurately tracks the lows of ASOS over the last few months. I hope that helps. jgt

Good Morning Everyone!!!
John
sorry this is so late in coming, but a very belated thank you for looking at DFD for me, I took my profits out a few days ago. Joined watshot as you suggested, interesting...what time do they update in the morning? Have at long last put details on as you suggested, still no luck logging on asos.com.

Eric
Thanks for updating our results again last week, much appreciated as always. Bit of a rollercoaster theses last few days. Appreciate how you must feel with your CFD's as I used my credit facility to do a pre results asc top up...have to settle by tomorrow so let's all hope for a huge forward surge in the next 30 hours. What's that about learning from mistakes?? Luckily had a funny feeling about MPH and HNR and sold last week.

Hope everyone is well ....onwards and upwards.....please...

thanks for comments EW.Yes that is what i did-sell YOO and buy ASOS.However the trouble with my using instinct as a higher weighting than analysis, charting et al is that it becomes difficult to determine if I am using good instinct or just panicing ie being reactive to the situation?(also dropped SEY by the way)I would admit that i generally believe that the price should be driven by demand and whilst i beleive there a bona fide activities that happen to produce some irregular price movements, at times I believe the MM's are playing a game for their own benefits which does not appear to make any sense whatsoever.I find this frustrating and probably overreact.I would confess other failings and shortcomings but the list is too long...........
PS still think SPS are potential dynamite(mind you i thought that about YOO!)

Eric,

Just trying to work out what went wrong with the chart posting - I will let you know as soon as I have worked it out,

Ian

You learn something every day! Above is ASC with exponential moving averages and Bollinger Bands = amazing! Mind that's a lot easier than interpreting the charts. And that's a lot easier than making the right decisions. Sandra, sorry (or should that be glad!) that you're in the soup with me! The advantage of a CFD from my point of view, as against a loan, is that there in no finite term. I think I treat the whole thing as a gambling game; CFDs just increase the stakes without increasing funding. So, willfagg, your point is that the MMs are also treating it as a game but, selfish beasts, they are playing their own corner! As in a game, I seem to make a rash of poor decisions (buying or selling at the wrong time or price) even though I am somewhat better at the initial play (which stocks to go for?) - like you, I put this down to a level of impetuosity; a way to improve, I believe, is to understand better how the MM is playing the game and, also, others in the market, e.g. the shorters. As an example, my post earlier this morning commented on the blue board; after the post the board was dominated by red and it gave the impression of being a concerted shorting attack. Any comments? the time was 08:40 to 09:00 or so?

John: Following up your comments, the MA50 does track the lows pretty well. The question is, in relation to minimising risks with CFDs, whether there really is a significant risk in a larger fall. I have little doubt that ASC remains in an up-trend: positive news flow; well managed with constructive new initiatives; rapidly expanding niche market; leadership in that market; new markets available at relatively low entry cost, e.g. USA; not expensive on financials (prospective PE relatively high at 35 but this is more than offset by growth rate - I also believe that current projections will be beaten easily). What do the charts say to you?

Eric

Not so easy after all! Even managed to bust the system - that's the trouble with being cack-handed!

Eric,

I have now posted the chart to your posting,
Thanks

Ian

Eric: I have been very busy on the Futures market hence only just got back to the BB and seen your note. Now from my own perspective I think it is important to draw up some trading rules. For instance each time I make a trade I make a note, what worked, what did not etc, and always why. This has enabled me to modify the rules as I go along. I think trading without rules is tantamount to commiting 'harri karri'. Now when you say above you see this as gambling that is not true, speculating yes, but not gambling and I tell you why, because you have done a lot of research and have a good understanding of the company in which you have invested. Gambling is somewhat different don't you think. Now I try to have an understanding of the company and look at the chart to make the trade, either to buy or to sell. I think I said some time ago that I would look to buy again when the SP fell back towards the 70p (50 day ma) target. It has done so, I am now looking for confirmation that the SP will rebound, so I note the RSI has a divergence which is always a sign of change. I will need to see a 2 day close above the 50 day ma and perhaps the MACD bouncing, then I will be back in. Patience is important, until your trading rules are met do not trade, now I realise sometimes this is very hard when you are looking at the screen and see all those SP movements and feel you will be left behind. But more often than not the SP falls back towards the end of the day, so it is never too late, and there are always other shares that offer good opportunites if you do feel you have missed out. Another pitfall is trying to pinpoint tops and bottoms in the market...almost impossible or if you do it's good luck. Again have rules, and I bet over time you will build up the percentage of times you win rather than lose. Again I have an ambitious target of getting more right than wrong. After all even the great traders make losses in their trades, but they have the knack of learning from their mistakes. No sentiment allowed, no matter how much you love the company or trade you have made. No point in going against what the market is telling you. In the case of ASOS it may be after Xmas before the SP really gets going again. It they report good Xmas trading, good news on margins, wharehouse sorted whatever, and then perhaps who knows, but I have never been able to predict what will happen next, better to take each day as it comes. So perhaps tomorrow will be the day when we wake up and read that there has been a takeover offer...who knows! But if you analyze the ASOS chart over the last 6 months there were good times to BUY and good times to SELL, unless that is you just BUY and HOLD. Anyway sorry to go on, this is just a few thoughts I have on the subject, and wanted to share with you some of my approaches. jgt

jgt

Many thanks for the above note and for going to the trouble. I did use the term 'gambling game' - which will, of course, have rules. Even if the gambling/luck is the throwing of a dice, the guy who knows the rule well and uses them is laible to win. But I do take on board your comments about establishing rules; I have picked up a lot in the last two or three months from our dialogue but realise that I am missing out on some background theory which is important. Having said that, you and I will probably always operate a bit differently because I suspect we are different Myers Briggs types. Never tell another person his type is a rule, but I suspect you are an INTJ, the scientist type, from the fact that you are researching futures. I am an INTP, an architect type who is always looking for the big picture, must have all the pieces in a jigsaw. Thus the fundamentals are important, the trades are important, the charts need to be more important. But I am not using that as an excuse. As I have started to trade more actively, I suspect that my success rate has fallen. That is probably , at least partly, due to a mindset/attitude and to insights that compel early action, or so I believe when a more diligent application of rules, linked with more patience, could well have produced better results. At least, in our very different ways, we have both homed in on the holy grail; ASOS, of course. Thanks again and I hope others are taking note too!

Eric