PJ,

I'm not convinced in technical terms that sideways movement is an indication that the present downtrend is over.

We have seen something similar recently prior to the fall to the current level. Sideways consolidations are often (indeed usually) just that, consolidations before a continuation in the prior direction, in this case downwards.

In terms of the company rather than the share price, the nervousness is probably reducing. The future (of Tad + Stream) is promising, but the damage done to the company by the poor handling of shareholder relations will still rankle with investors for some time to come.

Thus the dichotomy between the TA and the company's prospects. Years of experience has taught me that where TA and 'fundamentals' disagree, the TA is usually right. Remember also that my comments on TA are from a medium to long term view and are not intended for traders.

Cheers for that indie
And thanks moneylender,I have always liked this bb it is about the only one that people do not go a bit loopy on.lol
ALL the best to you both
pjjw

This share is questioning my "Saintly" status.

I thought you were a Prince.

Moneylender

What's happening - I'm almost 50% down?

gildph

you need to double to break even ( ignoring expenses ). thats the market for you. if making money was that easy everyone would be doing it. im one of the lucky ones on tad. way in profit because i bought loads sub 5p. my latest buy trade is also down 50%. i hate to trot out the old cliche, but dont "invest" more than you can afford to lose. good luck.
a short while back it was 50/50 whether tad went bust or not. the odds are now heavily in favour of continued solvency imo, but it could be a long time before you MAY see a return.

Ok superrod thanks for an honest reply

i am always honest, a child of the 60s, always say please and thank you and give up my seat to those more infirm than myself.

BEWARE there are 10 ( at least ) to every one like me, who will shaft you. after all the great God MONEY is at stake. you will soon learn who to trust/believe on a bb. i hope your education doesnt cost you as much as its cost me over the last 10 years.

ps
thats why i still have to work. at least i can sleep easy concience wise

I would add, and I'm specifically excluding Superrod from this, that people who tell you to trust them are often the worst kind of fraudster.

Look for information you can check so that your decision is based on your own appreciation of the situation. Few who nudge you to buy on their rumour will subsequently nudge you to sell.

Comparing this BB to others, it certainly seems more civilised, and all the better for that.

ML
Any idea how long we have to keep getting up early for?
It can't be far away now!

If last year is anything to go by, trading updates was on the 29/10/03.goal.

Indie - not totally convinced by what you say (a first by the way) in post 836 of 847: "Sideways consolidations are often (indeed usually) just that, consolidations before a continuation in the prior direction, in this case downwards." Is there any statistical evidence to back that up? My feeling is that sideways' consolidations are just that - good/positive news will mean a break upwards and bad/nagative news a downward break. Just interested to know whether you have any factual basis for your opinion. Cheers and stay lucky.

pachandl,

The answer lies in the percentage rate at which such sideways consolidations prove to be reversal patterns. I don't have any figures to hand and don't know where I would find reliable ones. The comment was based on my experience over the last 5 or so years, rather than the 30-odd years I've been using TA. This means it could well be biased by sample, as most of that time has been fairly consistently either a bull market or a bear market.

The occasion when a rectangle is most likely to be a reveral pattern is when the general market is reversing sentiment and we've been fairly short of those, although now could be one. The FTSE formed and dropped from a diamond and has retraced to the apex of the diamond. The odds are still downward, but are only about 70/30.

In the case of Tadpole, a drop from a small triangle had its price target almost met immediately after the retrace to the apex. The present consolidation occurred at and just above that level. Bearing in mind the presence of a strong long and short term resistance level (ca. 11.5p) just above the triangle apex (11p), I would say that the odds are still on down.

Needless to say, any really good news which got the Tad army very enthused could succeed in overcoming that resistance. What I'm saying is that that is what it is going to take to overcome the log-jam between the present price and 12p. I could see a trading update achieving that, but not the EGM.

It seems to be accepted that the reason the share price has dropped so much since the merger announcement boils down to lack of confidence in the board. I think the technicals played a more significant role, but that's not the common view. Anyway, I can't see what could come out of the merger documentation that would be likely to re-enthuse the Tads Army sufficiently. Most of what will be in there is either known or guessed at except the fine detail and the reasons for the merger.

The reasons could be aggressive or defensive. Defensive reasons tend not to go down too well as they usually amount to change or die. Aggressive ones still rely on potential customers/markets being converted to actual ones. The City is aware of the huge potential for products of the type Tad's has, but has remained unconvinced Tad will be the horse to back. This makes it unlikely Tad will provide anything in the document which will create the enthusiasm needed to storm the trenches. The Tads Army hungers for evidence of success in terms of actual results/contract wins and this is where the best chance of a convincing share price rise comes from in my opinion.

Nice to see you posting,

Indie

Indie - thank you for taking the time to respond at such length. I basically agree with everything you say but would point out that the statistics on upward/downward movements from existing sideways' consolidation patterns are largely influenced by whether we are operating in a bear or bull market - in this case the movement of the Techmark over the past 3 years speaks volumes. Hence,if the tide changes this Autumn for small cap tech stocks then Tad might well move upwards without any news at all. Anyway, thanks again for your comprehensive response.

People keep forgetting the recent crappy interims as well. OK so the slide didn't start until the Stream announcement but that was only just after the interims.

Hi Yuff

I think its time we all started setting our alarm clocks again! I really can not see it going beyond this week end for the details. I think the deal has to be ratified by the year end, and as it takes three weeks to organise an EGM it has to be Thurs or Friday THIS week.
Thats how i see it anyway.

M

Please find below a press announcement being issued today by Patcom on
behalf of SOFTBANK BB Corp. of Japan. It makes reference to a new software
on-demand service being offered by SOFTBANK's Yahoo! BB service in Japan
using the streaming software technology of Stream Theory, Inc.

Subject to shareholders approval, Tadpole Technology plc (LSE-TAD) is
acquiring Stream Theory to extend its streaming on-demand software
capability currently through Tadpole's Endeavors Technology unit. Tadpole's
vision is to create the industry standard for streaming software technology
via the combined Endeavors/Stream Theory unit.

Sincerely,

Hugh Paterson, Patcom

###

For Immediate Release

Press and Analysts Contacts

Chitose Nii, SOFTBANK BB Corp. Tel +81-3-5642-8013, Email
cnii@softbank.co.jp
David Rand, Stream Theory - Tel +1 408-790-2913 x1073, Email
drand@streamtheory.com
Hugh Paterson, Patcom Media - Tel +44 207 987 4888, Email
hughp@patcom-media.com

Japan's Leading Broadband Service Yahoo! BB Launches First
Revenue-Generating Software Streaming Service

BB Soft delivers software on-demand with Stream Theory's application
streaming platform for unprecedented user flexibility using secure
anti-piracy technology

Tokyo, September 1, 2004 - SOFTBANK BB Corp. of Japan
(http://www.softbankbb.co.jp) today launches its new "BB Soft" software
streaming service business. The service initially targets the 4.28 million
users of Yahoo! BB, Japan's largest broadband service, which is owned and
operated jointly by SOFTBANK BB and Yahoo! Japan Corporation.

BB Soft (http://bbsoft.jp/) provides a variety of software titles on demand
to Yahoo! BB subscribers and opens the door to a new world of convenience in
the way that software is distributed and charged. For the first time, fully
functional applications can be streamed directly through Yahoo! BB to
desktop and notebook PCs and used without subscribers having to install the
programs onto their hard disks for each new programs. The patented
application streaming platform, which provides immediate access to a wide
variety of titles and "no-install" convenience in a secure anti-piracy
environment, is based on streaming software technology of Stream Theory,
Inc. (www.streamtheory.com).

The number of Japan's "always-connected" users has expanded rapidly in
recent years driven mainly by ADSL and fiber-optic technology. Broadband has
also driven PC software market growth and expanded service providers'
customer bases. Its ease of use has won broad approval from all groups of
users be they children, students, parents or senior citizens.

BB Soft goes further and now enables users to try various software titles
before purchase. It also helps software vendors to introduce new billing
schemes for their products based on customer needs and establishes an
efficient, simple and cost-saving method of releasing software upgrades.

SOFTBANK BB also aims to extend the software market to new customers via the
new BB Soft service. By offering software that matches the lifestyles of
individual users, it believes that people who are not frequent users of any
software services until now will become subscribers and active users.

BB Soft . a Unique Service

SOFTBANK BB offers various services through BB Soft that only it can provide
by combining Japan's top share broadband business and top share IT-related
product distribution business. SOFTBANK BB has become one of the most
successful distributors of IT-related products by developing value-add
partnerships with software vendors, providing them access to its unique
business expertise outstanding network performance, and powerful nationwide
sales channels.

ML
Looks like the games have begun, in more ways than one!
:-)
ps Softbank's share price is up nearly 25% in August. They must be doing something right.

PAChandl,

The point about bull & bear markets and skewed data was what I was talking about. Nice to see we are in agreement.

Snappy,

The share price slide started well before the Stream Theory announcement. That simply seemed to speed things up a bit as some traders panicked. The H&S neckline broke unambiguously at about the time of the announcement.

Today's announcement is little more than we knew (or suspected) already and it doesn't have any revenue guidance attached. However, the very fact that an announcement has been made could well re-enthuse the Army. Tomorrow will tell.