Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Nearly there now ;)

All out for now at 2.0075.
Wanted to put up a chart, but the bucket thingie seems to be down.

choccadoodledo
cracking trade - $2 always made sense - just a shame I lost my sense gene yesterday - replaced with numpty gene. Have applied for a replacement on ebay - using the "Buy It Now" option. After postage and packing comes in at around 1,000 :(

You want to grab it with both hands, meggers ;)

Well done choccy...

I have taken a break from forex as has been too volatile for me....I will be back though

Well thanks :)

First trade since mid-June, and err, still rusty, not to mention wobbly.
As I said last week, before BT so rudely interrupted me, I was looking to go long (using the 4hr chart) so I was exceedingly miffed to miss cable's low last week. As it happens I was also waiting for a long $/JPY entry, which has miffed me off even more :( By the time I got broadband back the other day I just about trusted myself starting with a cable long at 1.9790, using the 15 min jobbie.

Meanwhile, I also lost all my charts cos of those naughty BT boys, so this is what I rustled up the other day:

Interactive Calendar updated for your delight and delectation.

Also, Seymour please note, the little charty thingies in the header appear to have been fixed by the gentle folks at Forexnews.

anyone else about........currently short eur/usd stoploss toooo near for my liking

Blimey, all the Forex traders retired to their private south sea islands ;-)

I have been experimenting with various systems over the summer, trying to find something that is reasonably profitable and consistent.

In the main, I have to say a toss of the coin would be a far better solution than most of the systems out there.

I took a two week demo of a certain trading system a few months ago that was supposed to be the latest in hi-tech neural technology. What a load of crud. I tell you, my dog could predict the next hourly range better.

I had to laugh when I got an email last week offering a demo of their latest and greatest as supplied to the hedge fund industry.

When I looked at the stats it had made 201 pips trading EURUSD this year to date. And they actually charge for this !!

Initially I started concentrating on EURUSD but this pair bored me to death most days, so I have decided to concentrate on EURJPY. It has a tight spread and even a tight range can be 20 to 30 pips. Where I am only looking for 10 to 15 pips it has more than enough daily range to keep me happy.

I had decided to trade this using a 15 minute line chart to determine direction ( higher highs/lower lows), switching to a 3 minute chart for entry, simply using a candlestick breakout and Stochastics for timing.

The 3 minute chart works well with this pair if you are not too greedy.

Then I stumbled across a very simple but what looks like an extremely successful strategy which can be applied to any pair.

It uses a breakout of a 3 hour period preceeding the London open. The idea is to simply trade the breakout. The suggestion on Forex Factory is to use the Woodies CCI for confirmation, only go long if CCI is greater than zero, only go short if CCI is less than zero. The verdict is still out on whether to use this or not.

Today it would have kept you out of several trades this morning, although the USDCHF was probably the best and CCI was in agreement.

I would prefer to wait for a retrace after the breakout. If the price retreats back into the range all the better, bang out a trade the instant it breaks out again. Failing that, I would use a 3 or 5 minute chart to time an entry.

If you are using MT4 then I have uploaded the indicators, just click on the links below to download them. Add them to a 30 minute chart (black background) and hey presto off you go.

Today was a really good day for this strategy, click HERE to see for yourself.

The trader that posted this strategy on Forex Factory looks for a 15 pip profit with a 15 pip stop loss. He reckons on around 90% hit rate. Well, you will have to see for yourself, but I reckon it's definitely a strategy for the arsenal !

TripleCCI_Woodies.mq4
BreakOut-EAGLE_indicator.mq4

All this IMHO - no trading advice intended. DYOR.

" Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Cheyne Capital Management Ltd., a London-based hedge fund, may be forced to liquidate $6 billion in assets backing a commercial paper program after the global credit rout reduced the value of the securities, Standard & Poor's said.

The Cheyne Finance LLC fund, which can hold as many as $20 billion in assets, breached a test based on losses in the portfolio, S&P said in a statement. Cheyne Capital also runs Queen's Walk Investment Ltd., a fund that invested in mortgages and which reported in June a loss of 67.7 million euros ($92 million) in the year ended March 31.

``Even though you are a well-regarded investment vehicle, if you can't roll over your paper and the market is concerned about the asset value of rolling over that paper, investors are not going to refinance you in this environment,'' said Craig Saalmann, credit strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney. "

And for a good laugh:

"Best CDO Manager: Cheyne Capital" June 2006

"The alternative investment manager has rewritten the rule book in structured credit this year thanks to its breathtaking pace of innovation"

"Established by Jonathon Lourie and Stuart Fiertz in 1999, Cheyne Capital Management has rapidly established an enviable reputation as one of the most innovative and succesful alternative investment managers in the business. It has been in the CDO market since 2002 and now has nine deals under its belt; it has also written CDS trades worth $120 Billion notional since 2003."

Qwento Thanks for that,are you still subscribing to Bootcamp?

Have you come across Big Ben breakout strategy Qwento? Not used it myself but I believe it can prove very fruitful. Like all strategies though, results differ in varying market conditions.

With a little bit of discretion with the CCI you could have taken your pick this morning.

Nice breakout, retrace and subsequent breakout on GBPUSD EURJPY GBPJPY USDJPY and EURCHF.

I really must start trading this ! Can it really be this simple I ask ? Probably not, but I live in hope ;-)

BTW - the setup times for the range are 04:00 to 07:00 GMT. So you need to adjust the times for the various broker feeds. Alpari I have set to 06:00 and 09:00.

Divetime - I forgot to cancel my subscription this month, got the dates wrong. For someone new to Forex I reckon it is well worth a 2 or 3 month subscription.

What they teach is all good stuff, but after a while it becomes very repetitive. Instead of following the market they now give lessons when they think the market is quiet. Once you've heard it a few times it gets boring.

I have also found now with the various coaches that they spend far too much time on why you shouldn't take a trade. Then you find later in the day they took it and banked 50 pips. Blooming marvellous.

So, no, I shan't be subscribing any longer. I still like their 5/8 crossover with Stochastic confirmation. Pretty good for my 3 minute EURJPY chart. And their teachings on Fibs, Intraday Pivots, Confluence and Correlation etc is all good stuff.

I now subscribe to Trade The News (audio and text). I find it very worthwhile and not just for trading actual news events.

It's a few years ago now, but a friend (Jeroo, if anyone remembers him) sent me a link, CCI for Newbies, which I found quite entertaining. Sounded more like a new religion :) It's in my other pc - I'll dig it out if anyone's interested.

From TTN :

Fx dealer chatter focusing on another 'surprise' fed discount rate cut, said to be keeping USD's tone soft this session.

Harlosh - Yes, I have come across the Big Ben strategy.

I believe it is intended for use with GBPUSD, whether it could be applied to other pairs I really don't know.

I can understand the reasons for why it may work though.

I have a pdf file on the strategy. If anybody else is interested in it I will upload it to the web site.

I cannot believe the Yen pairs today. The Fed has everything under control then. DOW 15000 is it now ;-)

The Yen softened throughout the European morning and into NY as Nomura Asset Managements launched two new Japanese mutual funds investing in overseas assets. These Nomura funds attracted about 190B of subscriptions. USD/JPY rebounded from its 113.92 session lows to 115.16, while EUR/JPY ranged from 154.55 lows towards its 157.27 high. Overall the USD was soft against the European currencies as FX Dealer chatter focused on the possibility another 'surprise' FED discount rate cut. Lingering concerns of the subprime issued continued into the European session as Cheyne Finance, managed by London- based hedge fund group Cheyne Capital Management, is set to unwind an $2.5b fund after a drop in the value of its portfolio of real estate-related securities. Also, Australia's Basis Capital Fund ($2B under management) filed for bankruptcy protection in the US. Gold was higher on the back of the weaker USD.

Early FX chatter focusing on rumour of several EU banks announcing subprime losses later today at a press conference. Dealers suggesting perhaps a large German, French bank may announce subprime losses.

BOE lends 1.55 billion at 6.755% Wednesday. No names given.

Well I have to say the markets are all very calm at the moment. Are they in denial I wonder or perhaps they don't read the stuff that I do.

Has anyone come up with a plausible explanation that does not involve the word 'crash' for the 65,000 contracts for the SPX 700 calls ?

I wonder if the party making the monster bet has also read of the $90 trillion backlog of commercial paper that had not rolled over on Aug 23.

Perhaps the commentator that said 'the system is collapsing right before our eyes' was having a bad hair day. It'll be alright on the night - won't it ?

At least Moody's is confident - "banks have sufficient capital to meet needs, threats to the global banking system are overstated". That's alright then, I can come out from under my comfort blanket now !

Edit - I have come across an explanation for the apparent monster down bet :

"So a whole lot of CALLS were sold at very low strikes and a whole lot of CALLS were bought at low prices. The currently quoted price for the 95 Call is 51.40 / 51.70. This means that with the SPY at 146.23 as I write this the SPY is valued at 51.70 + 95 = 146.70. These Calls have a delta of 1, meaning they are very tied to the SPY movement at a 1 : 1 ratio.

So you need to look at the two ways each side of the transaction make money. The buyers make money if the SPY goes up ABOVE 146.70 not down. The sellers make money if the SPY doesn't go up. It doesn't have to come down, they have already made their money by selling the calls and collecting the premium.

On the PUT side, there isn't the same volume at these strikes. There is 1 open interest at 85 for example. The only 'odd' volume is that there are 9494 open interest on the PUTS at 96.

This isn't the doomsday scenario that people describe, but it certainly is very, very weird."