ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

FT article entitled "Celebrity fashions put ASOS into the black".

Article refers to the launch of own label in March. "This will take our women's wear range to the next level," Nick Robertson said. Also predicted "...healthy Christmas profits as more shoppers decided to avoid the crush on the high street and shop online". John Stevenson, analyst with Shore Capital, described the results as solid: "There looks like there is still good growth in the company".

FT Comment:

ASOS is cashing in on the growing hordes of consumers sho want to look like theri favourite celebrities. The increase in turnover and number of subsribers is encouraging, and there is still scope to raise the margins while the move into own-label should help. Further expansion is also expected to come from the proposed doubling of lines from 1300 over the next 12 months. With a full-year profit forecast of some 1.5m, the shares are on a pricey multiple of about 36 times. This falls slightly to 24 times next year. Those who missed the boat earlier may be kicking themselves, but there does look like some potential for growth."

EWR comment:

My calculations previously make the profit forecast look cautious and a 50% uplift for next year looks doubly so (the Internet fashion market overall will be increasing by that sort of figure). However, sensible to set numbers you can beat! There does not appear to be any cloud on the horizon!

Eric

Lovely blue this morning! 40 minutes and 400K buys including the 'unknowns' which are obviously buys. If 'Evil' has been short-selling, he reckons he's onto a loser; sorry, winner!

jgt

How's the FTSE100 program going? If you're still reading, a follow up on CFDs. Down a fair bit although this trend will set things straight. What policy to you follow? (a) do you limit the position in terms of the overall risk; e.g. do you say the worst that can happen with ASC is that they drop back to 60p and know how you will fund the losses? (b) is there any argument for closing a position if you are confident of a rising trend - the costs are higher than wih on-line trading but you have to factor in the cost of overnight money. All the best and many thanks in anticipation!

Eric

Eric: If it helps I did think of you when the ASOS SP fell after the recent announcements because of your gearing. I think myself some of the fall was from profit taking, and some punters fell that the stock is perhaps toppy with a fully rated P/E. Still what do I know as I am not a fundamentalist by nature! With regard to CFD's, I think you have to take into account the gearing you take on when deciding the SL. I never set a SL when I am in the cash market, but always do with CFD's. Now with respect to ASOS I have used the 50 day m.a. as a simple SL positiopn, plus a 'bit'. The 'bit' I use is because I want to avoid being stopped out of a position as the MM's take the SP down to that level. To make this even simpler, use the MonayAM charting package and play with the m.a. feature set. You can change the m.a. lines and find one that fairly accurately tracks the lows of ASOS over the last few months. I hope that helps. jgt

Good Morning Everyone!!!
John
sorry this is so late in coming, but a very belated thank you for looking at DFD for me, I took my profits out a few days ago. Joined watshot as you suggested, interesting...what time do they update in the morning? Have at long last put details on as you suggested, still no luck logging on asos.com.

Eric
Thanks for updating our results again last week, much appreciated as always. Bit of a rollercoaster theses last few days. Appreciate how you must feel with your CFD's as I used my credit facility to do a pre results asc top up...have to settle by tomorrow so let's all hope for a huge forward surge in the next 30 hours. What's that about learning from mistakes?? Luckily had a funny feeling about MPH and HNR and sold last week.

Hope everyone is well ....onwards and upwards.....please...

thanks for comments EW.Yes that is what i did-sell YOO and buy ASOS.However the trouble with my using instinct as a higher weighting than analysis, charting et al is that it becomes difficult to determine if I am using good instinct or just panicing ie being reactive to the situation?(also dropped SEY by the way)I would admit that i generally believe that the price should be driven by demand and whilst i beleive there a bona fide activities that happen to produce some irregular price movements, at times I believe the MM's are playing a game for their own benefits which does not appear to make any sense whatsoever.I find this frustrating and probably overreact.I would confess other failings and shortcomings but the list is too long...........
PS still think SPS are potential dynamite(mind you i thought that about YOO!)

Eric,

Just trying to work out what went wrong with the chart posting - I will let you know as soon as I have worked it out,

Ian

You learn something every day! Above is ASC with exponential moving averages and Bollinger Bands = amazing! Mind that's a lot easier than interpreting the charts. And that's a lot easier than making the right decisions. Sandra, sorry (or should that be glad!) that you're in the soup with me! The advantage of a CFD from my point of view, as against a loan, is that there in no finite term. I think I treat the whole thing as a gambling game; CFDs just increase the stakes without increasing funding. So, willfagg, your point is that the MMs are also treating it as a game but, selfish beasts, they are playing their own corner! As in a game, I seem to make a rash of poor decisions (buying or selling at the wrong time or price) even though I am somewhat better at the initial play (which stocks to go for?) - like you, I put this down to a level of impetuosity; a way to improve, I believe, is to understand better how the MM is playing the game and, also, others in the market, e.g. the shorters. As an example, my post earlier this morning commented on the blue board; after the post the board was dominated by red and it gave the impression of being a concerted shorting attack. Any comments? the time was 08:40 to 09:00 or so?

John: Following up your comments, the MA50 does track the lows pretty well. The question is, in relation to minimising risks with CFDs, whether there really is a significant risk in a larger fall. I have little doubt that ASC remains in an up-trend: positive news flow; well managed with constructive new initiatives; rapidly expanding niche market; leadership in that market; new markets available at relatively low entry cost, e.g. USA; not expensive on financials (prospective PE relatively high at 35 but this is more than offset by growth rate - I also believe that current projections will be beaten easily). What do the charts say to you?

Eric

Not so easy after all! Even managed to bust the system - that's the trouble with being cack-handed!

Eric,

I have now posted the chart to your posting,
Thanks

Ian

Eric: I have been very busy on the Futures market hence only just got back to the BB and seen your note. Now from my own perspective I think it is important to draw up some trading rules. For instance each time I make a trade I make a note, what worked, what did not etc, and always why. This has enabled me to modify the rules as I go along. I think trading without rules is tantamount to commiting 'harri karri'. Now when you say above you see this as gambling that is not true, speculating yes, but not gambling and I tell you why, because you have done a lot of research and have a good understanding of the company in which you have invested. Gambling is somewhat different don't you think. Now I try to have an understanding of the company and look at the chart to make the trade, either to buy or to sell. I think I said some time ago that I would look to buy again when the SP fell back towards the 70p (50 day ma) target. It has done so, I am now looking for confirmation that the SP will rebound, so I note the RSI has a divergence which is always a sign of change. I will need to see a 2 day close above the 50 day ma and perhaps the MACD bouncing, then I will be back in. Patience is important, until your trading rules are met do not trade, now I realise sometimes this is very hard when you are looking at the screen and see all those SP movements and feel you will be left behind. But more often than not the SP falls back towards the end of the day, so it is never too late, and there are always other shares that offer good opportunites if you do feel you have missed out. Another pitfall is trying to pinpoint tops and bottoms in the market...almost impossible or if you do it's good luck. Again have rules, and I bet over time you will build up the percentage of times you win rather than lose. Again I have an ambitious target of getting more right than wrong. After all even the great traders make losses in their trades, but they have the knack of learning from their mistakes. No sentiment allowed, no matter how much you love the company or trade you have made. No point in going against what the market is telling you. In the case of ASOS it may be after Xmas before the SP really gets going again. It they report good Xmas trading, good news on margins, wharehouse sorted whatever, and then perhaps who knows, but I have never been able to predict what will happen next, better to take each day as it comes. So perhaps tomorrow will be the day when we wake up and read that there has been a takeover offer...who knows! But if you analyze the ASOS chart over the last 6 months there were good times to BUY and good times to SELL, unless that is you just BUY and HOLD. Anyway sorry to go on, this is just a few thoughts I have on the subject, and wanted to share with you some of my approaches. jgt

jgt

Many thanks for the above note and for going to the trouble. I did use the term 'gambling game' - which will, of course, have rules. Even if the gambling/luck is the throwing of a dice, the guy who knows the rule well and uses them is laible to win. But I do take on board your comments about establishing rules; I have picked up a lot in the last two or three months from our dialogue but realise that I am missing out on some background theory which is important. Having said that, you and I will probably always operate a bit differently because I suspect we are different Myers Briggs types. Never tell another person his type is a rule, but I suspect you are an INTJ, the scientist type, from the fact that you are researching futures. I am an INTP, an architect type who is always looking for the big picture, must have all the pieces in a jigsaw. Thus the fundamentals are important, the trades are important, the charts need to be more important. But I am not using that as an excuse. As I have started to trade more actively, I suspect that my success rate has fallen. That is probably , at least partly, due to a mindset/attitude and to insights that compel early action, or so I believe when a more diligent application of rules, linked with more patience, could well have produced better results. At least, in our very different ways, we have both homed in on the holy grail; ASOS, of course. Thanks again and I hope others are taking note too!

Eric

jgt

Charts any clearer? We seem to be repeating the pattern of August and late September. That would suggest that we stay round here for a while. Should be some decent press but Shares piece had little effect. Next move from speculation over the festive season?

Eric

Have you seen bnh ewr??!!

Never known a share that's prepared to move so far, so fast on so few trades! Bounding into the lead on the ASOS challenge! Worth taking some profits on the out of sight out of mind principle? I challenge jgt to make sense of the charts. Mind, they would make good pictures for the wall!

Eric

The logic is quite simple, mms have no stock!!! lol, and any hint of big buyers, they just offer ridiculous prices. I am still more than happy to be in them... another 30p+ left easy.... I will look forward to mr tudors response. I think fund managers will start to look at these, plus I wouldn't be surprised to see it in IC tomorrow.

Eric: Looking at the EOD figures my indicators do not give me a BUY signal at this time. Now from a fundamental perspective there are other issues to consider, but if you take the view that almost everything is in the price...well! jgt

Eric: My EOD figures concur with johngtudor, although the RSI is showing signs of improvement its still not in the BUY bracket. SD

Are youboth (JGT and SEADOG) talking about BNH???!!

legend290782: I am talking about ASOS. BNH has given a buy signal since 1st Oct, on my charts, but flotation only took place in May so is very short time for indicators to build up a profile to be accurate IMHO. SD

legend

I think jgt and SEADOG are answering my questions re ASC. I challenge anyone, as I did jgt, to interpret the BNH graphs - the transaction volumes are really too low, I think, to apply statistical research to! lol! lol from legend all the way to the bank! Will mention you in ASC Challenge despatches later this evening! Are you doing all the buying yourself?

I just think I am beginning to cope with these chart things when they land a new one on me - EOD, now , what's that? Earnings over deviation? End of decade? Everyone overboard, danger? Yes, I am taking the charts book on my Xmas vacation!

Now, is there a theory about repetition of patterns, as with weather forecasting. If so, there is a remarkable similarity between the pattern late August and early September and now at somewhat higher levels. That would suggest a rise to about 80p and then a correction back to just above 70p before a surge over Xmas, New Year. If not a known technigue, we'll call it the RPR (Robson Pattern Repeater)!

Eric

Eric: You tease....End of Day. If you really want to get into charting patterns, there is something known to Chartists as Elliot Wave patterns, based on the Fibonacci Principle which I am sure you can easily recall from your school days! Some very clever people even superimpose moon patterns on to the charts to ensure no possible influencing factor is left out! When you have managed to navigate yourself through that I look forward to continuing the dialogue! Meanwhile keep it simple, and just take each day as it comes......John

PS: Exactly what books are you taking with you on your skiing trip?
PPS: Glad the charts told me to sell PCI, and like you place funds in the other gamble...PET!