Tanfield Group is the new company name of Comeleon. As I understand it, Comoleon was getting into trouble so TAN (paerent company?) took over. Since this has happened the share price has dropped by 0.25p each day for the last week or so (on average) and are now around the 3p mark with very little activity.

Does anyone know much about this company or previously held stock in Comeleon? There is virtually no info out there other than on the company website.

cheers

Mike

I managed to get a few on friday at 5p - it remains to be seen whether that was a shrewd investment or pure madness.

My last foray into Tan was when they were at 197 - ish - which I sold at a loss at about 175. I thought they had the makings of a solid growth company then !!!!

GF, I may be wrong but I would imagine the credit facility was arranged before Friday, it being Independence Day in the US wouldn't everything be shut for a long boozy weekend?!

For reference this was the third and final (for last week) downgrade for TAN by Daniel Stewart, released on Wednesday :


Tanfield - SELL
Price: 5.57p Target price: under reviewp
Code: TAN.L Analyst: Mike Stoddart | 0161 830 1892


Third forecast cut in three days

We are cutting our 2008 forecast for Tanfield Group today. This is our third cut this week. The first on Monday (from a bottom-of the-range 34m down to 20m) was as a result of analysing the companys accounts which were published on Friday. The second, yesterday, was from 20m to 16m a first guess at where we should be following the profit warning. Todays downgrade, hopefully the final one this week, follows a more detailed H1 & H2 analysis of the model late yesterday.

We are cutting from 16m to 8.4m today, which gives EPS of 1.63p. This is before amortisation of intangibles of 3.0m and stripping out any government grant income (our guess, 1.25m). This 8.4m is split between 5.7m in H1 (about the same as the year before) and 2.7m in H2. These forecasts could easily be missed given that sales of powered access equipment are falling and raw materials prices are rising.

Market forecasts we consider that some market forecasts have not gone low enough in the light of the warning yesterday. For instance, one of the forecasts we have seen is based on 2008 revenue of 191.5m rising to 214.7m in 2009. This would require H2 revenue to be 10% above the 91m achieved in H1 (a figure disclosed yesterday) and for sales to grow by a further 12% in 2009. We have already been told that Upright/Snorkel is seeing orders deferred and cancelled.

Cash flow we have modelled H1 cash flow to get to the groups disclosed cash position of 11.1m. We would highlight that this guidance probably (?) excludes the groups obligations under finance leases (1.784m in December 2007) and possibly invoice discounting (just 81,000 in December 2007). Our model is showing a further cash outflow in H2 reducing the cash pile to 5.4m. This would be a major achievement compared with the rate of outflow seen in recent periods. Falling sales in H2 and the reigning in of expansion plans should enable stock and debtors to be reduced from June 2008 levels but we expect trade creditors to deteriorate given the level of publicity to Tanfields problems. We have not yet factored in the cost of redundancies.

Funding as far as we know, the group has no bank debt but also has no significant credit facilities (beyond overdraft). Whether it will be able to obtain any, given its history of missing its own projections and of massive cash outflows, is debateable. Whether shareholders would be willing to put up more cash given their disappointing experience in the last year is also doubtful.

Goodwill impairment the key assumptions for the testing of the book value of goodwill at the December 2007 year end were for powered access gross margins of 35%, a growth rate of 10% and (incredibly) a discount rate of 5%. We expect the current downturn in this division to require an impairment charge, possibly as early as the interim results in September.

Valuation based on our full year estimate of EPS of 1.63p, the shares, at 5.57p, are trading on a p/e of about 3.4x. However, this includes a relatively normal and profitable H1. The EPS for H2 is just 0.52p or 1.04p annualised. If this can be regarded as a sensible current run rate of EPS then the shares are on a p/e of 5.4x. Our target price is under review.

the bank deal would have been signed on friday if it was before then it would be classed as with holding price sensitive information which the co would get a fine.

Monday morning will see the company Tanfield with a series og new measures with funds now to be invested in this company. Therefore the company as been oversold on a vast scale and the share price will rocket early on Monday and through out the day. In addition a new manager will be appointed and it will buissiness as normal. To put a value on the share price initially this will recover from last weeks losses and 40p will be reached and above by end of the the.week and in the region of 68p.

On the condition that the market and everybody else does not think that TAN is not going under in the short term (I don't)....then with the extra credit facilities....this should be in my estimation worth somewhere between 10p and 18p, not at this ridiculous level now....(got to say I took a small punt on these at a fraction over 6p)....we shall see....it does sell a very promising product and at the moment no debt and redundancies are not going to cost 11 million pounds....could be a great recovery play next autumn.

shadow...a little over optimistic perhaps ?.

i like to be posative, required field and information suggets that a take over bid will be announced now that the funds are secured. All the best for Monday and beyon... O ver sold big time and a recent Financial purchase will provide the reassurance that TAN will prosper.

Do you know the details of the funding? is it in fact new or a replacement for something maturing.

The funding is valid for 5 years and not many banks, would be prepared to do this if the company was not sound, As they made 12 million pounds profit for TAN reality is a quality company heading back to above 30p good luck.

well daniel stewart were wrong about Tan's ability to secure funding - looks to be no problem and that $35m revolving facility was just for one division.

This was sold off mercilessly last week on blatant scare stories,downgrades and massive shorting attacks - fsa/ LSE should investigate the shorting activity last week imo and whether funds and individuals have indulged in naked shorting here.

Clearly the situation is not terminal at all but has been priced as if it were, all that has really changed is that the co is seeing a downturn in its markets which is universal - it certainly did not warrant being sold off to an inch of its life and to the cash levels in the bank.

There are three well established divisions with impressive pedigrees employing hundreds of people and with a turnover of 200+ million expected for the current year and all sold down to 15 or 16M by friday (it has even got with 11m in cash!)

This could well be the stagecoach or the corus of this bear market imo.

I wonder what fees they paid to get that funding away.

Also, given that profit forecasts for the current year range from about 12 to 20m on 218m turnover a CONSERVATIVE estimate for valuation in the current market should be in the region of 30p to 40p imo ( ie P/E between 7 and 10) which funny enough was about where it was at the beginning of the week 32-33p before the hysteria, derampers and shorters took hold of it. Longer term, if the company executes the turnaround quicker than many expect this should return to sensible levels.

I have never held a position, long or short in TAN but just looking to find out what happened.

I note the Third forecast cut in three days news...

analysts rarely cut ahead of the news and are generally very very late to do anything, in fact they are often a sign it has hit the lows when they cut! So I am looking to see if this might actually be worth buying a few now with that funding news

another interesting fact is that short interest is reported on other sites as 16.5% - that means there are 61M shares on loan and needing to bought back, gonna be one hell of a short squeeze imo. dyor

Yes the fact they secured the loan facility (they may not even use it of course) given current credit conditions bodes well. Id be very surprised if they cant secure a similar deal, if required, for the electric vehicles division given the high oil price.

this is turning out to be quite a ride ... good luck to all holders & tan workers

t 11
quite a ride usually indicates high volatility, up followed by down, or vise verca, in fairly rapid time. so far it seems to be all down in recent times.
i do sincerely hope that down soon turns to up for you, unless you have been riding the waves.
personally i find such rides too much. i get sea sick. really i do .
i much prefer calm seas.
i once travelled across the infamously rough bay of biscay, from portsmouth to santandar.
having spent a few hours in the bar the previous evening, as one does, at the holliday inn portsmouth, i then survived a couple of hours on the ferry, followed by
approx 16 hours in my bed in my cabin being shall we say not well, much to the disgust of my wife who accused me of having a hangover. little did she know. and little could i do to convince her otherwise.
until the return journey that was, when the same thing happened, and she knew i hadnt been near a bar, as i had been driving thro spain all day.
oh well such are the ups and downs of married life.
best regards
jkd

crinkle. post 860 of 863.

Where did you get the loan stock data from,I have been trying to find a website with this information for ages?

The only one I know of is Euroclear but you have to pay for the service. TIA.

I bought into TAN at 5.5p last week.

latest...every MP to drive electric vehicles or be thrown in the tower