ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Good Morning Everyone!!!
John
sorry this is so late in coming, but a very belated thank you for looking at DFD for me, I took my profits out a few days ago. Joined watshot as you suggested, interesting...what time do they update in the morning? Have at long last put details on as you suggested, still no luck logging on asos.com.

Eric
Thanks for updating our results again last week, much appreciated as always. Bit of a rollercoaster theses last few days. Appreciate how you must feel with your CFD's as I used my credit facility to do a pre results asc top up...have to settle by tomorrow so let's all hope for a huge forward surge in the next 30 hours. What's that about learning from mistakes?? Luckily had a funny feeling about MPH and HNR and sold last week.

Hope everyone is well ....onwards and upwards.....please...

thanks for comments EW.Yes that is what i did-sell YOO and buy ASOS.However the trouble with my using instinct as a higher weighting than analysis, charting et al is that it becomes difficult to determine if I am using good instinct or just panicing ie being reactive to the situation?(also dropped SEY by the way)I would admit that i generally believe that the price should be driven by demand and whilst i beleive there a bona fide activities that happen to produce some irregular price movements, at times I believe the MM's are playing a game for their own benefits which does not appear to make any sense whatsoever.I find this frustrating and probably overreact.I would confess other failings and shortcomings but the list is too long...........
PS still think SPS are potential dynamite(mind you i thought that about YOO!)

Eric,

Just trying to work out what went wrong with the chart posting - I will let you know as soon as I have worked it out,

Ian

You learn something every day! Above is ASC with exponential moving averages and Bollinger Bands = amazing! Mind that's a lot easier than interpreting the charts. And that's a lot easier than making the right decisions. Sandra, sorry (or should that be glad!) that you're in the soup with me! The advantage of a CFD from my point of view, as against a loan, is that there in no finite term. I think I treat the whole thing as a gambling game; CFDs just increase the stakes without increasing funding. So, willfagg, your point is that the MMs are also treating it as a game but, selfish beasts, they are playing their own corner! As in a game, I seem to make a rash of poor decisions (buying or selling at the wrong time or price) even though I am somewhat better at the initial play (which stocks to go for?) - like you, I put this down to a level of impetuosity; a way to improve, I believe, is to understand better how the MM is playing the game and, also, others in the market, e.g. the shorters. As an example, my post earlier this morning commented on the blue board; after the post the board was dominated by red and it gave the impression of being a concerted shorting attack. Any comments? the time was 08:40 to 09:00 or so?

John: Following up your comments, the MA50 does track the lows pretty well. The question is, in relation to minimising risks with CFDs, whether there really is a significant risk in a larger fall. I have little doubt that ASC remains in an up-trend: positive news flow; well managed with constructive new initiatives; rapidly expanding niche market; leadership in that market; new markets available at relatively low entry cost, e.g. USA; not expensive on financials (prospective PE relatively high at 35 but this is more than offset by growth rate - I also believe that current projections will be beaten easily). What do the charts say to you?

Eric

Not so easy after all! Even managed to bust the system - that's the trouble with being cack-handed!

Eric,

I have now posted the chart to your posting,
Thanks

Ian

Eric: I have been very busy on the Futures market hence only just got back to the BB and seen your note. Now from my own perspective I think it is important to draw up some trading rules. For instance each time I make a trade I make a note, what worked, what did not etc, and always why. This has enabled me to modify the rules as I go along. I think trading without rules is tantamount to commiting 'harri karri'. Now when you say above you see this as gambling that is not true, speculating yes, but not gambling and I tell you why, because you have done a lot of research and have a good understanding of the company in which you have invested. Gambling is somewhat different don't you think. Now I try to have an understanding of the company and look at the chart to make the trade, either to buy or to sell. I think I said some time ago that I would look to buy again when the SP fell back towards the 70p (50 day ma) target. It has done so, I am now looking for confirmation that the SP will rebound, so I note the RSI has a divergence which is always a sign of change. I will need to see a 2 day close above the 50 day ma and perhaps the MACD bouncing, then I will be back in. Patience is important, until your trading rules are met do not trade, now I realise sometimes this is very hard when you are looking at the screen and see all those SP movements and feel you will be left behind. But more often than not the SP falls back towards the end of the day, so it is never too late, and there are always other shares that offer good opportunites if you do feel you have missed out. Another pitfall is trying to pinpoint tops and bottoms in the market...almost impossible or if you do it's good luck. Again have rules, and I bet over time you will build up the percentage of times you win rather than lose. Again I have an ambitious target of getting more right than wrong. After all even the great traders make losses in their trades, but they have the knack of learning from their mistakes. No sentiment allowed, no matter how much you love the company or trade you have made. No point in going against what the market is telling you. In the case of ASOS it may be after Xmas before the SP really gets going again. It they report good Xmas trading, good news on margins, wharehouse sorted whatever, and then perhaps who knows, but I have never been able to predict what will happen next, better to take each day as it comes. So perhaps tomorrow will be the day when we wake up and read that there has been a takeover offer...who knows! But if you analyze the ASOS chart over the last 6 months there were good times to BUY and good times to SELL, unless that is you just BUY and HOLD. Anyway sorry to go on, this is just a few thoughts I have on the subject, and wanted to share with you some of my approaches. jgt

jgt

Many thanks for the above note and for going to the trouble. I did use the term 'gambling game' - which will, of course, have rules. Even if the gambling/luck is the throwing of a dice, the guy who knows the rule well and uses them is laible to win. But I do take on board your comments about establishing rules; I have picked up a lot in the last two or three months from our dialogue but realise that I am missing out on some background theory which is important. Having said that, you and I will probably always operate a bit differently because I suspect we are different Myers Briggs types. Never tell another person his type is a rule, but I suspect you are an INTJ, the scientist type, from the fact that you are researching futures. I am an INTP, an architect type who is always looking for the big picture, must have all the pieces in a jigsaw. Thus the fundamentals are important, the trades are important, the charts need to be more important. But I am not using that as an excuse. As I have started to trade more actively, I suspect that my success rate has fallen. That is probably , at least partly, due to a mindset/attitude and to insights that compel early action, or so I believe when a more diligent application of rules, linked with more patience, could well have produced better results. At least, in our very different ways, we have both homed in on the holy grail; ASOS, of course. Thanks again and I hope others are taking note too!

Eric

jgt

Charts any clearer? We seem to be repeating the pattern of August and late September. That would suggest that we stay round here for a while. Should be some decent press but Shares piece had little effect. Next move from speculation over the festive season?

Eric

Have you seen bnh ewr??!!

Never known a share that's prepared to move so far, so fast on so few trades! Bounding into the lead on the ASOS challenge! Worth taking some profits on the out of sight out of mind principle? I challenge jgt to make sense of the charts. Mind, they would make good pictures for the wall!

Eric

The logic is quite simple, mms have no stock!!! lol, and any hint of big buyers, they just offer ridiculous prices. I am still more than happy to be in them... another 30p+ left easy.... I will look forward to mr tudors response. I think fund managers will start to look at these, plus I wouldn't be surprised to see it in IC tomorrow.

Eric: Looking at the EOD figures my indicators do not give me a BUY signal at this time. Now from a fundamental perspective there are other issues to consider, but if you take the view that almost everything is in the price...well! jgt

Eric: My EOD figures concur with johngtudor, although the RSI is showing signs of improvement its still not in the BUY bracket. SD

Are youboth (JGT and SEADOG) talking about BNH???!!

legend290782: I am talking about ASOS. BNH has given a buy signal since 1st Oct, on my charts, but flotation only took place in May so is very short time for indicators to build up a profile to be accurate IMHO. SD

legend

I think jgt and SEADOG are answering my questions re ASC. I challenge anyone, as I did jgt, to interpret the BNH graphs - the transaction volumes are really too low, I think, to apply statistical research to! lol! lol from legend all the way to the bank! Will mention you in ASC Challenge despatches later this evening! Are you doing all the buying yourself?

I just think I am beginning to cope with these chart things when they land a new one on me - EOD, now , what's that? Earnings over deviation? End of decade? Everyone overboard, danger? Yes, I am taking the charts book on my Xmas vacation!

Now, is there a theory about repetition of patterns, as with weather forecasting. If so, there is a remarkable similarity between the pattern late August and early September and now at somewhat higher levels. That would suggest a rise to about 80p and then a correction back to just above 70p before a surge over Xmas, New Year. If not a known technigue, we'll call it the RPR (Robson Pattern Repeater)!

Eric

Eric: You tease....End of Day. If you really want to get into charting patterns, there is something known to Chartists as Elliot Wave patterns, based on the Fibonacci Principle which I am sure you can easily recall from your school days! Some very clever people even superimpose moon patterns on to the charts to ensure no possible influencing factor is left out! When you have managed to navigate yourself through that I look forward to continuing the dialogue! Meanwhile keep it simple, and just take each day as it comes......John

PS: Exactly what books are you taking with you on your skiing trip?
PPS: Glad the charts told me to sell PCI, and like you place funds in the other gamble...PET!

Thanks for your response guys, much appreciated.

EWR, I bought my lot 24k shares at 61p and another 12k in the 70s. I don't believe in chasing prices up.

I have spoke to 1 analyst about BNH and I told a mate, (that is a trader) to consult his analyst at his investment bank and both believe the company could be 1.40+.

It has very good prospects and I really feel fund managers will start looking at it soon.

Brewin Dolphin have put a price target of 1.10+ since results but then again they would because they floated it at 10m, so they wouldn't want to admit to floating the company at a massively undervalued price.

A possible reason for the erratic market making is because I know a lot of people bought from 60-80p and mms were being stubborn keeping price low thinking that people will sell out on boredom and because the company floated around about that price so they thought it was a fair price. They are short of stock so move it around alot on buying.

The company was set up in 1994, and just over the past 6 months has generated 1m cash. Looks like a very good business.

My broker is a fundamentalist and he believes that if a company is worth 1.50, then it should be regardless of trade!!! I am happy with his prediction.

Hope you have a good weekend EWR and SEADOG

Eric: thank you for your good weekend wishes. If you are serious about technical analysis (TA) a small tome to start you off would be " Charters on Charting" get it from the local library, the bible of (TA) is "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J Murphy, a very comprehensive book and a long read. Alternatively have a look at Metastock's web site "www.equis.com" a Reuters company, very interesting. Best wishes SD

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO, 3rd December, 2004

Well! That was the week that was - its over, let it go! Into a loss and lagging the index! Plenty of drama! But also plenty of opportunity! Thought I would approach review asking whether I would invest at current price - speak up, please, if you differ.

company_________ EPIC pp(p) issue(m) shares price_ value_ cap.(m) gain % gain wk

Broker Network H BNH_ 77.5_ 15.065__ 6450__ 118.50 7643.3 17.85__ 52.90_ 16.75
ASOS____________ ASC_ 56___ 67.97___ 8900__ 76.50_ 6808.5 52.00__ 36.61_ -6.71
Stanelco________ SEO_ 4.5__ 78.225__ 111000 5.88__ 6526.8 4.60___ 30.67_ -2.00
Civilian Content CCN_ 16.25 41.883__ 30700_ 16.00_ 4912.0 6.70___ -1.54_ -3.03
Yoomedia________ YOO_ 22___ 125.538_ 22700_ 20.75_ 4710.3 26.05__ -5.68_ 6.41
Sterling Energy_ SEY_ 17.25 822.712_ 29000_ 15.50_ 4495.0 127.52_ -10.14 -11.43
Petrel Resources PET_ 124.5 58.625__ 4000__ 102.50 4100.0 60.09__ -17.67 0.99
Marchpole Hold._ MPH_ 33.75 120.455_ 14800_ 27.00_ 3996.0 32.52__ -20.00 -11.48
cybit holdings__ CYH_ 1.82_ 988.952_ 275000 1.45__ 3987.5 14.34__ -20.33 -30.95
CFA Capital Gp__ CFP_ 0.7__ 619_____ 714000 0.55__ 3927.0 3.40___ -21.43 0.00
Petroceltic Int. PCI_ 15___ 484.975_ 33300_ 9.75__ 3246.8 47.29__ -35.00 -42.65

total_____________________________________________ 54353.1_______ -1.18_ -7.89
Smallcap index_____________________________2695.00 57086.5_______ 3.79__ 0.09

I have to start with the oils, a negative sector this week, but there has been more or less drama with 8 out of 11 holdings!

1. PCI. Went through the floor today on negative drill results in Tunisia. Was it as bad as all that? Their rig was taken away without oil gushing but they have plenty of other sites to drill and plenty of cash in the bank. Fall overdone; share should recover when they tackle next drill. Over-hyped expectation. BUY for RECOVERY.

2. SEY. Also negative drill results have taken the price well below placing price of 17p. Lots of other opportunities in Mauretania. Differ from PCI in that they already have plenty of cash and revenue flow. Not sure whether there is any urgency to buy. HOLD.

3. PET. End-November passed without the promised announcement from Iraqi Oil Ministry with consequent drift in price. Strong recovery today on RNS saying only that offer was in and bidding on another field. There may not be any competition left and odds of win must be better than evens. A win would bring, probably, a multiple in the price; a loss would put PCI to shame. SPECULATIVE BUY.

4. BNH. The success story of the week. Good results have led to sharp climb in price on small volumes; presumably MMs short of stock. Well done legend, who is hero on the bb! may be more to go or could come back with low volume sales. TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS (but run rest to beat ASC to doubling!)

5. ASC. Results in line with expectations with strong forecasts for Xmas period. Profit taking but plenty of room for progress over Xmas period, as popularity of site and share grow. Then Miss Sixty launch in January (lower price than their shops); own label in March. Ever on and ever up! HOLD/ BUY on WEAKNESS.

6. YOO. Great deal of heat on bb resulting from terms of acquisition. EWR letter in Shares with good response (except issue of Director warrants); Timon Day wonders whether Microsoft of Digital TV! ACCUMULATE

7. CYH. SP collapse on results, primarily because of accounting changes, but partly because of competitive market. Should have been seen coming as in previous results. Plenty of good trading news. BUY

8. MPH. Weakness after good results, then further drop because of litigation with supplier. Market does not like litigation (see SEO). Share now cheap on fundamentals. ACCUMULATE

9. SEO. Consolidating after rise in previous week on Asda announcement. Bioquell verdict against SEO being reconsidered - bb believe they would be better to move on. HOLD/ACCUMULATE

10. CFP. An exception with no news. bb members being approached for shares and wonder whether bid in wings. Look remarkably cheap. SPECULATIVE BUY.

11. CCN. No news is probably cause of gradual decay in price. Should recoveer with repeat of previous positive news. HOLD?/ ACCUMULATE

Not a SELL in the list (at current prices)! Oh! you say, not surprised because you are an eternal optimist; yes, but I don't have a problem in selling if I need the funds elsewhere. The portfolio has take several hits this week but they all look overdone. Doubling? BNH could do it. ASC will do, probably sometime in New Year. PET could knock into cocked hat or drop through floor! Don't see another candidate, though.

Eric