A thread for all those who wish to discuss GOLD - the investment of and related discussions that can effect GOLD as an investment or simply how to invest in it. All welcome from other websites.

Printing won't ever stop. It's just rhetoric by bb.

Printing stops the whole world will go in to a tailspin straight into the abyss.

BoE O'Neil has been brought in to get the printing presses moving even faster.

Accumulation is the name of the game.

The BIG question is how high will equities go?

Get in with what?

Careful research is just about the best thing to do.

Resource rich - well medium rich.
Firm infrastructure in place.
Politically stable.
Solvent.

Feel free to add to that list.

"Get in with what?"

erm you said in your post, numbered 82, get-back-into-beaten-down-mining-stocks-j-p-morgan/?source=email_rt_mc_body.....

To which I queried.

With what...

Clearly most have been burned by their PM investments and will have no money to get in with. Those that do have spare cash, a minority, will still be scarred and very wary of investing in any AIM miners. Especially given the poor macroeconomic picture for metals in general, and, seemingly, PM's in particular.

Namely falling gold/silver price, rising costs of inputs,and, equally importantly, rapidly changing political risk.An example of the latter - the court case in Egypt, and the chatter that the Philippine govt wants to change the way it raises tax on PM producers!

Why put in any new money?

I suspect you've miscontrued my initial reply to post 82.

I'd certainly be adding on a careful basis(eg MML,HGM,less so CEY) but I most definitely wouldn't invest in any Aim company with little/no production, or needing to raise cash.

The Seda has been an utter disaster for AGQ, rather disappointingly. But was predictable as any of us RRR / RGM shareholders said at the time. :)

Omce - I know little of some of the miners you mention. I have quite an indepth knowledge of AGQ. Difficulty with seda but funding talks are taking place & a large shareholder such as Eric Sprott gives more power to the company. AGQ outright own all the land & property aswell as proven 120m ozs silver, not to mention zinc.

The Eqypt case (CEY) I think - correct me if I'm wrong could be interesting as ties with Syria are now broken so whilst an extremely dodgy time it could do well in the longer term. I don't hold CEY (yet).

It will be bigger boys that buy some of AIM & I don't believe it serves the city of London or its reputation at all for David Cameron & his mate Michael over at Icap to destroy AIM - just so he can have those listings on his ISDX which he effectively stole (PMK). He will be outed for sure - and Cameron will go down in history as one of the most financially destructive PMs the UK has had in modern times. His associations have already let him down badly.

Not everyone in the public are stupid or been hoodwinked.

Today we see a report that finally states bankers that failed their customers, shareholders & the market should be jailed. How long before CEOs like Michael at Icapp come under that same ethos.

Desperation reigns.

Hold PMs & miners with proven resources. Heck - I'll dig the stuff out of the ground myself & broker my own deals. Lose I will not do.

What's Michael Spencer at Icap been doing to destroy AIM?

"Today we see a report that finally states bankers that failed their customers, shareholders & the market should be jailed. How long before CEOs like Michael at Icapp come under that same ethos."

You do realise that ICAP, like other IDB's , is a different business to banks right? It's the banks that are Icap's customers, not the general public.

HarryCat

re
"most analysts seem to be advising that investors now turn their attention to the 'cyclicals' as a better investment rather than blue chip"

IMO fwiw basis - unless you want to personally try
- the "post Lehman" experience .....in stocks & shares

I would give them all a miss on the old adage - sell in May ........., or in this case more possibly ....high tail it out of Dodge - and stay out....for a while.

DYOR but :- (here goes)

The first time in recent.... decades
- that total margin debt exceeded... 2.25 percent.... of G.D.P.
- came at the end of 1999, amid..... the technology stock ....bubble.
- Margin debt fell..... after that bubble.... burst,

but
- to rise again during the..... housing boom
- when anecdotal evidence said some investors were using their investments to secure loans that went for down payments on homes.

That boom in ...margin loans ...also....
.... ended badly......

In fact it seems whenever margin debt reaches 2.25% .....the stock market crashes

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/01/business/economy/shades-of-prerecession-borrowing.html


So are we around the red flag ....2.25%..... historical - crash warning level now ??

Apparently - Margin debt has now risen to about...... 2.4 percent..... of GDP

May not crash this week, or next week - but it seems "the writing is on the wall" by way of forewarning
(And - in rather - large letters - imo)

By way of a visual warning

- the GREY areas indicate when margin debt - exceeds 2-25%
- The chart after....the Grey areas
- represents the S & P......in the month that follows



By all means place your bet......but
- the bottom right chart

- is where we are......now.

See how it pans out shortly

But shortly afterwards - you may wish to review....those "most analysts" seem to be advising....
- and perhaps knock them off your reading list :o)
re
("most analysts .......seem to be advising that investors now turn their attention to the 'cyclicals' as a better investment rather than blue chip")

Often better to be out ....a month early......than a day or two late
(I think they are considering adding tha - to - The Cypriot...national anthem)

No advice given mind you - after all
- only qualifications I hold are - a CSE II in woodwork, a 25 metre swimming badge

Once36
- would your mining shares get hit in the carnage and crossfire - should the previous post pan out
(just a thought fwiw)

Thanks for that gazkaz, but for me it is the never ending revolving door of having to find a reasonably profitable safe haven for my money. Cash under the bed is depreciating in value, so it has to work pretty much all the time, even if that means just investing in high divi yield stocks with little capital growth.
As for your qualifications, they look pretty impeccable to me. I wonder how many brokers, financial advisors and analysts can claim to be able to swim and assemble a flatpack furniture unit! ;o)

You do realise that ICAP, like other IDB's , is a different business to banks right? It's the banks that are Icap's customers, not the general public.

I rest my case.

I figure Icap are in deep do do. Hence them stealing an RIE. For sure they & agents are behind the attempted destruction of AIM. Just like PLUS.

Only AIM is & always has been a brand.

So much for cameroons SMEs salvage operation. More like one for the boys club.. Do some research omce - get enlightened.

I'd say a small percentage of miners (juniors) will see the other side of this. If they're already listed with ISDX then lets see what happens.

Personally I think it's shameful to destroy AIM - it's always been a part of the City. Shame on Michael for the greed. SMEs aren't wanted by cameroon & his non tax paying corporates.

Have a think about it.


Gaz - you should be proud you can work inside an MFI unit - I'm sure its more worthwhile than an MI5 unit.

Squirrel - lol
- read a book by an ex - operative (if they are ever truly ...ex).
Seems the gov't funds unit 5 - but allegedly - unit 6 is funded from head of the committee of 300's - own...private purse....
- erMaj 'erself.

HarryC - can't remember who said it - but post Greece/Cyprus/Iceland/...and I suppose we could now add Co-op
- his focus was not so much "return on his capital"....more "return OF his capital"
- on that score - difficult environment and likely to become more so.
- my late father one said - "when you have no money...you worry
- when you have a lot of money... you worry
(but at least you worry in comfort)"

He was area inter school swimming champ 2 years running back in the 30's, and could weld too.
(although he never showed off ..by doing both at the the same time.. in public :o)

Lol

Was looking up something else
- but for any non former advfn'ers..... might be worth a read of the following which I posted in - the other place.

Why is it interesting ?

The hasty, rushed Cyprus - Bail in - saver snatch
- with added delayed access (moratorium) to saver funds....and bonus conversion of saver funds to shares
- with early EU official denials ....it was ...then was not a ....template

The link proves - it was not a ...hasty solution AND IS - A TEMPLATE

The link is from the Financial Stability Board - A ....TEMPLATE
- published....not in 2013 after Cyprus... or even just before Cyprus
- not even published way back in the last 15 MONTHS ie anywhere through 2012

But published ......way, way back in.....2011

http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/Template to rob the sheeple/r_111104cc.pdf

Zey 'ave a plan, an' zey 'ave 'ad it for ...a very long time !

If you are interested - in the .....really big picture

- and remember this is not - from some blog or paid subscription writer

- this is from - those who update/advise/instruct
- THE G 20 group

http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130419b.pdf

It sets out - progress on.... international progress
- in implementing
- GLOBAL........ "cyprus template"....bail ins
- cross borders
- re "THE to big to fail" - failing

Not only - in banking, but...insurance, financial markets etc etc

http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130419b.pdf

I personally don't think - they are just adhering to boy scout motto of -.... being prepared.

(must check if the boy scouts do - a "bail in" badge....would look nice with my 25m swimming badge)

Gaz - I haven't bothered with insurance for more than half my life. In my view they are worse than bankers.

I think capital controls will be the way forward.

Today there's talk of splitting government owned RBS where savers will be ring fenced & protected. The bad loans will be put into a bad bank where they can be dealt with. The good bank backed by savers will be able to make loans but I would hope they would be tightly controlled. Also savers should be rewarded with higher rates.

The bad bank should be able to seize assets.

It's a start. Good that bankers bonuses won't be paid for 10 years.

The public will is winning through but I won't be letting go of my PMs as policy change can happen anytime.

Bernie Big speaking later - I wonder what he's got hidden in his beard.

Squirrel
- re the good bank - bad bank scenario
- one day will get round to looking into how they make the balance sheets balance

All the savers money (bar say a 5% float) has gone, isn't there
(lent out in fractional reserve lending - to the borrowers - good and bad)

- so
a) - if you took all the savers only - to a good bank
- they are liabilities of the bank in their balance sheet
- so you have a bank with liabilities -....and no assets
- 100% insolvent

b) - If you (for arguments sake - assume all the mortgages/loans were bad - or a big enough proportion ie the ....assets on a bank balance sheet)
- & take those bad assets to - a bad bank
- the good bank - is left with - the savers (liabilities on the bank balance sheet)
- and again Nil assets or most likely drastically reduced remaining - good mortgage/loan assets left over
- likely insolvent again.

That's why in Cyprus - say - the balance sheet was say - book value £100
- when the bad loans/mortgages (assets) were stripped out - say £80
- they only has £20 worth of assets left.

Hence to make the books balance - they had to get liabilities down to £20

Wipe out the shareholders (banks liability)
- wipe out lesser bond holders (banks liability)
- 'mmm still not down to £20
- wipe out X% of uninsured - savers deposits (bank liability)
- etc
- lovely now down to £20

So how to make the books balance - steal the punters shareholder money - steal the punters bondmoney - steal most of the punters uninsured deposits.

Good Bank/Bad Bank - a good idea - for the punters ?

Re the good bank - backed by the savers ?
- the savers money - has already gone via fractional reserve - to the borrowers
- and the borrowers .(the bank assets)...went to - the bad bank
- so the good bank is left backed by........

As I say - one day I will get round to checking out the actual mechanics
- so don't rip into my thoughts apart too much
- they are just off the cuff thoughts on good bank/bad bank.....whilst cutting my grass :o)

Yours or anyone elses thoughts - on how they would balance the RBS/Natwest books welcome.

I recollect the Irish had to rope in the punters old age retirement pension fund - to back their bad bank........any volunterrs on stumping up their share here...on that one.

When they hived off N/Rocks - bad loans - they made the remaining good N/Rock bank books balance by - pumping in taxpayer cash - anybody fancy a tax hike to pay for that method.

The books must balance - and generally the sheeple end up paying for it...one way or another - indirectly thro' tax - or directly....the Cyprus way

The dominoes are starting to wobble - fed member
- questions Deutche bank solvency
- jim willie claims.... Barclays on the ropes

Anybody else remember

http://www.arabnews.com/barclays-boss-forgoes-bonus-qatar-deal-probed

The Financial Times reported that British authorities are looking into an allegation that
- Barclays
- lent Qatar money to invest in it
(as part of a rescue fundraising at the height of the 2008 financial crisis).

UK rules forbid a public company from giving financial assistance in order to acquire its shares or those of a parent company.

A Barclays spokeswoman said:
- “Both the FSA and SFO investigations are ongoing and,
as such, we are unable to comment further.”
- The FSA, SFO and Qatar Holding declined to comment.

And the outcome was..........?

If you are in trouble - and you write a cheque to someone - to give back to you
- net result....you are - still in trouble.

Co - op result of getting the "tap on the shoulder" - to pick up/bail out Brittania (Bogged down with around 25% MBS/Liar loan mortgages)

Lloyds got the "tap" re halifax...

And of course RBS/NatWest - never recovered from picking up - ABN-Amro's - big, big black hole.

Barclays only just ducked out of picking up....Lehman Bros.

Funny old game, if you are a Bankster - the punters/taxpayers are happy with MS T.V. tho'

(like in Greece - you can rob them blind - but the prime minister has been forced by public outcry - to........restore their national TV....recently switched off re austerity cuts :o)

You do realise that ICAP, like other IDB's , is a different business to banks right? It's the banks that are Icap's customers, not the general public.

"I rest my case."

And your case viz Icap was what exactly? Other than they're destroying AIM, for which you provided no evidence at all.

"I figure Icap are in deep do do."

Liquidity and thus commissions are down in some product areas, yes,but the online electronic systems are churning out money (without the need for expensive voice broking)

Whilst FY results, announced on 14th May weren't brilliant, they certainly were not the harbinger of Icap being in deep do do as you claim.

Operating profit1 308 372 (17)
Profit before tax1 284 354 (20)
PBT (statutory)2 66 217 (70)
EPS (adjusted basic) 3 33p 40.1p (18)
Ongoing free cash flow was £274m

They've just signed a large revolving credit facitlity.

Hence them stealing an RIE. For sure they & agents are behind the attempted destruction of AIM. Just like PLUS.

I'm not up to speed with this RIE theft and their destruction of AIM. Equities,as a business segment at ICAP, was not one I was aware of as I was under the impression they dealt primarily with money market instruments - namely FRA's, IRS,and Bonds/Bond options and other derivatives. Their equity exposure was via Equity options, and these most certainly would not have involved AIM stocks. They also pulled out of their Equity sales business last year (and this most certainly would not have been AIM stocks either)

Perhaps you could elaborate on your claim that ICAP is stealing a RIE, and that they're agents behind the destruction of AIM. Other than , of course, conspiratorial clap trap arising from your personal interpretation of the financial sector's antics.

FYG I'm Invested in Icap/TLPR so i know a large part of their businesses quite well. Every Inter Dealer broker however is different at the margins.

"Only AIM is & always has been a brand."

Aim is a pile of unregulated dross with far less stringent reporting requirements.

"So much for cameroons SMEs salvage operation. More like one for the boys club.. Do some research omce - get enlightened."

Now you're just talking absolute rot. I expected more of you frankly.

As it happens I've done plenty of research, in addition to working in the Financial services industry for 15 years, in Derivatives. So I suspect the only person needing to do some homework here in the search of enlightenment is yourself as you clearly have serious gaps in your knowledge!

"I'd say a small percentage of miners (juniors) will see the other side of this. If they're already listed with ISDX then lets see what happens."

I suspect it will be more than people expect, but fewer than we'd hope for. Aim is a busted market. Too many dubious characters , with no experience, set up companies and milk investors dry with little to show. Fair bet that many will never return to AIM.

"Personally I think it's shameful to destroy AIM - it's always been a part of the City. Shame on Michael for the greed. SMEs aren't wanted by cameroon & his non tax paying corporates.Have a think about it."

It's got bugger all to do with Spencer's greed. And you're just reaching with your claim that Cameroon doesn't like or want SME's.

You seem to have a beef with Cameron - I'm guessing you're not a Conservative voter and that's colouring any conclusion your draw vis the City and any Cameron involvement.

I presume both you,and your hubby are still paying UK national insurance whilst you're overseas enjoying earning in a low tax environment and enjoying the expat lifestyle?? (It's called Class 3 btw - I know because I paid it when working in Asia.)

Omce - probably best to read PMK bb thread on the other site. I WAS Pmk investor. Icap got our RIE extremely cheap. We voted against. Take a look at Icaps ISDX.

Theres no conspiracy. Sorry to hear you're invested in Icap - their sp has suffered also. Don't be fooled by Spencer. He's a tory rat.

The AIM destruction - a video was put out warning investors that after Pmk was lost "they" would go after AIM.

You're pretty defensive so I'd deduce you know alot more.

Icap in cahoots with banks - I rest my case.

Gold - bullion banks positioning to go long PMs.

Be careful out there.

"probably best to read PMK bb thread on the other site. I WAS Pmk investor. Icap got our RIE extremely cheap. We voted against. Take a look at Icaps ISDX."

Sorry but I can't be arsed to trawl through loads of conspiracy bullshit - I get enough of that on the GKP board. Please give me adetailed precis of why you think ICAP are going after AIM and how they are in it, as you claim, with the banks....

"Theres no conspiracy. Sorry to hear you're invested in Icap - their sp has suffered also. Don't be fooled by Spencer. He's a tory rat."

Oh dear oh dear, now you've your true colours. Guess you're a Guardian reader then from that statement.

I've made very good money in Icap over the years fyg.

As to your "Spencer,don't be fooled, he is a Tory rat" clearly you're a LibDem/Labour voter with biased opinions on the matter.

Having read your many of your comments on AGQ over the last two years you clearly are overwhelmed by conspiracy theories...most of which I can assure you are utterly wrong.

"The AIM destruction - a video was put out warning investors that after Pmk was lost "they" would go after AIM. Icap in cahoots with banks - I rest my case."

You haven't made a case though - so far you've just hypothesised with no factual evidence provided. Link to the video? Precis of this Pmk loss and ICap going after Aim?

You're pretty defensive so I'd deduce you know alot more.

Just realistic. And it's clear I know alot more than you with your BB conspiracy theories which are frankly laughable.


I also notice you didn't answer my question as to whether you'd be paying National Insurance still whilst working, as an expat, overseas in a low tax country. Most "Tory rats" do in fact still pay their NI(Class 3) despite not being obliged to. Seems those on the Left who hate the Conservatives so much don't have any principles!!!!!!!!

So do you pay your National insurance whilst enjoying your low tax expat life? As we all know you'll be using UK services going forward (eg NHS Tourism) despite not paying anything for the next few years....