pachandl,

The answer lies in the percentage rate at which such sideways consolidations prove to be reversal patterns. I don't have any figures to hand and don't know where I would find reliable ones. The comment was based on my experience over the last 5 or so years, rather than the 30-odd years I've been using TA. This means it could well be biased by sample, as most of that time has been fairly consistently either a bull market or a bear market.

The occasion when a rectangle is most likely to be a reveral pattern is when the general market is reversing sentiment and we've been fairly short of those, although now could be one. The FTSE formed and dropped from a diamond and has retraced to the apex of the diamond. The odds are still downward, but are only about 70/30.

In the case of Tadpole, a drop from a small triangle had its price target almost met immediately after the retrace to the apex. The present consolidation occurred at and just above that level. Bearing in mind the presence of a strong long and short term resistance level (ca. 11.5p) just above the triangle apex (11p), I would say that the odds are still on down.

Needless to say, any really good news which got the Tad army very enthused could succeed in overcoming that resistance. What I'm saying is that that is what it is going to take to overcome the log-jam between the present price and 12p. I could see a trading update achieving that, but not the EGM.

It seems to be accepted that the reason the share price has dropped so much since the merger announcement boils down to lack of confidence in the board. I think the technicals played a more significant role, but that's not the common view. Anyway, I can't see what could come out of the merger documentation that would be likely to re-enthuse the Tads Army sufficiently. Most of what will be in there is either known or guessed at except the fine detail and the reasons for the merger.

The reasons could be aggressive or defensive. Defensive reasons tend not to go down too well as they usually amount to change or die. Aggressive ones still rely on potential customers/markets being converted to actual ones. The City is aware of the huge potential for products of the type Tad's has, but has remained unconvinced Tad will be the horse to back. This makes it unlikely Tad will provide anything in the document which will create the enthusiasm needed to storm the trenches. The Tads Army hungers for evidence of success in terms of actual results/contract wins and this is where the best chance of a convincing share price rise comes from in my opinion.

Nice to see you posting,

Indie

Indie - thank you for taking the time to respond at such length. I basically agree with everything you say but would point out that the statistics on upward/downward movements from existing sideways' consolidation patterns are largely influenced by whether we are operating in a bear or bull market - in this case the movement of the Techmark over the past 3 years speaks volumes. Hence,if the tide changes this Autumn for small cap tech stocks then Tad might well move upwards without any news at all. Anyway, thanks again for your comprehensive response.

People keep forgetting the recent crappy interims as well. OK so the slide didn't start until the Stream announcement but that was only just after the interims.

Hi Yuff

I think its time we all started setting our alarm clocks again! I really can not see it going beyond this week end for the details. I think the deal has to be ratified by the year end, and as it takes three weeks to organise an EGM it has to be Thurs or Friday THIS week.
Thats how i see it anyway.

M

Please find below a press announcement being issued today by Patcom on
behalf of SOFTBANK BB Corp. of Japan. It makes reference to a new software
on-demand service being offered by SOFTBANK's Yahoo! BB service in Japan
using the streaming software technology of Stream Theory, Inc.

Subject to shareholders approval, Tadpole Technology plc (LSE-TAD) is
acquiring Stream Theory to extend its streaming on-demand software
capability currently through Tadpole's Endeavors Technology unit. Tadpole's
vision is to create the industry standard for streaming software technology
via the combined Endeavors/Stream Theory unit.

Sincerely,

Hugh Paterson, Patcom

###

For Immediate Release

Press and Analysts Contacts

Chitose Nii, SOFTBANK BB Corp. Tel +81-3-5642-8013, Email
cnii@softbank.co.jp
David Rand, Stream Theory - Tel +1 408-790-2913 x1073, Email
drand@streamtheory.com
Hugh Paterson, Patcom Media - Tel +44 207 987 4888, Email
hughp@patcom-media.com

Japan's Leading Broadband Service Yahoo! BB Launches First
Revenue-Generating Software Streaming Service

BB Soft delivers software on-demand with Stream Theory's application
streaming platform for unprecedented user flexibility using secure
anti-piracy technology

Tokyo, September 1, 2004 - SOFTBANK BB Corp. of Japan
(http://www.softbankbb.co.jp) today launches its new "BB Soft" software
streaming service business. The service initially targets the 4.28 million
users of Yahoo! BB, Japan's largest broadband service, which is owned and
operated jointly by SOFTBANK BB and Yahoo! Japan Corporation.

BB Soft (http://bbsoft.jp/) provides a variety of software titles on demand
to Yahoo! BB subscribers and opens the door to a new world of convenience in
the way that software is distributed and charged. For the first time, fully
functional applications can be streamed directly through Yahoo! BB to
desktop and notebook PCs and used without subscribers having to install the
programs onto their hard disks for each new programs. The patented
application streaming platform, which provides immediate access to a wide
variety of titles and "no-install" convenience in a secure anti-piracy
environment, is based on streaming software technology of Stream Theory,
Inc. (www.streamtheory.com).

The number of Japan's "always-connected" users has expanded rapidly in
recent years driven mainly by ADSL and fiber-optic technology. Broadband has
also driven PC software market growth and expanded service providers'
customer bases. Its ease of use has won broad approval from all groups of
users be they children, students, parents or senior citizens.

BB Soft goes further and now enables users to try various software titles
before purchase. It also helps software vendors to introduce new billing
schemes for their products based on customer needs and establishes an
efficient, simple and cost-saving method of releasing software upgrades.

SOFTBANK BB also aims to extend the software market to new customers via the
new BB Soft service. By offering software that matches the lifestyles of
individual users, it believes that people who are not frequent users of any
software services until now will become subscribers and active users.

BB Soft . a Unique Service

SOFTBANK BB offers various services through BB Soft that only it can provide
by combining Japan's top share broadband business and top share IT-related
product distribution business. SOFTBANK BB has become one of the most
successful distributors of IT-related products by developing value-add
partnerships with software vendors, providing them access to its unique
business expertise outstanding network performance, and powerful nationwide
sales channels.

ML
Looks like the games have begun, in more ways than one!
:-)
ps Softbank's share price is up nearly 25% in August. They must be doing something right.

PAChandl,

The point about bull & bear markets and skewed data was what I was talking about. Nice to see we are in agreement.

Snappy,

The share price slide started well before the Stream Theory announcement. That simply seemed to speed things up a bit as some traders panicked. The H&S neckline broke unambiguously at about the time of the announcement.

Today's announcement is little more than we knew (or suspected) already and it doesn't have any revenue guidance attached. However, the very fact that an announcement has been made could well re-enthuse the Army. Tomorrow will tell.

Well hasn't it been a nice day?
Sun is shining TAD is up, I wonder what tomorrow will bring?
Hope you all have your alarms set, we are in News mode i feel.

M

I have been following Tad for many years through the highs and lows.
If followers out there are in any sort of profit I would take it now.
News has always been promised but the bottom line is they never ever
deliver and lurch from one crisis into another.
The unwary may get their fingers burnt badly here!!

Transco

This time they are already delivering! MCI MSFT Autocad, how's that for starters? And I do mean delivering, not tomorrow not next Month, Today.
But that's not all, wait till you see whats coming, you will not believe it, i promise.

M

ML
Have to agree with you, we have had false dawns before and the current share price is disappointing but I think this is the last time we will be at this level, Streaming is gaining traction in the market as companies such as MCI, ADSK and Softbank release the potential savings, its taken a long time but the time is nigh. Enjoy the rest of the month!

Hi Yuff

I will and I am told it will be a Month to remember as well.

M

ML - no offence mate ( I am sure you are a decent bloke who means well) but you really are a bit of a ramper. Ever since you exhorted us to get up early in the morning (since April?) the share price has gone downwards. Every month Tad is expected to turn the corner - but it doesn't. Every month you mention something about Autocad but nothing material appears. Every month starts with "wait and see what's coming", but nothing does. This share is stuck in the mud until the Stream issue is clarified, shareholders become confident that the "merger" is not over-dilutive, and real millions actually roll in - not the promise thereof. Anyway - we are are all entitled to our opinions so so don't take my comments personally. Cheers.

Well said pachandl - I have been a holder for years - thought I had lost everything when they hit 3p afer the profit warnings then I thought I had recovered when they went back up to 24p then my hopes were dashed again.

The market makers are having a laugh at the small punters who wade in unaware.

I mean look at the spread 13%? No justification whatsoever.

This share should have a health warning in it!

I will hold and continue to watch but my expectations are that it will resume a downward path for the forseeable future!!

Guys if you dont believe me then do some research, ring the Company and ask them. There has been a dramatic change in the way they handle expectations since the new management took over. This time it is for real, you can believe me or not it is your choice but the signs are there!
Just read them.

M

ML - I continue to hold a large tranche. Just letting off steam. If I lose money I only have myself to blame.

pachandl

you and me both.


a question for all.

is there anyone out there who has een holding/trading tad longer than me?

more than 12 long years and counting.

no coment over recent trades/price action?

days of little trading and then a sudden flurry ( and BIG buys ) a leak or just expectation of imminent news?

I go back to 95 - nine long years. In my last foray I purchased a few k @ 6p
but my average is 28p!!
Even have em in a pep - must be mad.

Superrod - only 5 years of trading Tad, with mixed fortunes. Volume still very low so I do not read anything into recent trading activities.

cant remember eactly when i first bought, but i recall it was 10k for 30p. the name just appealed to me. sad or what?

as to reading into trades, why not? trading hasbeen flat for a while and suddenly 200ks appear. mms tick up for no apparent reason