LEEWINK
- 28 Mar 2004 15:45
NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.
They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.
does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??
mjr1234
- 14 Jun 2005 13:56
- 853 of 1909
Well, I don't think I'm alone in thinking you're the rotten egg!
stockdog
- 14 Jun 2005 14:04
- 854 of 1909
Anomelette - rofl, mjr
taken the liberty of inserting your web-link in easily accessible form
sd
http://www.new-millennium.com.au/co_news.php
bundu
- 14 Jun 2005 15:28
- 855 of 1909
.
stockdog
- 14 Jun 2005 17:31
- 856 of 1909
I know, bundu - it's stunning isn't it.
Wendy D
- 14 Jun 2005 18:14
- 857 of 1909
"Andy - 13 Jun'05 - 19:30 - 822 of 855
Wendy,
J. Cross said they need a FULL mining licence to sell the diamonds, I don't believe they have yet obtained this."
Andy - to the best of my knowledge, the only company operating in Angola that markets its output itself is Alrosa. And that is a new thing.
The Ascorp contract ended this year, and SODIAM have taken diamond marketing back into their own outfit. So unless you are (a) Alrosa or (b) like them, in a position to negotiate with SODIAM to market your own stones, all output is marketed through SODIAM.
As the line of least resistance, I expect that NML will take that route for the time being.
Andy
- 14 Jun 2005 18:59
- 858 of 1909
Wendy,
You may well be right, but John Cross said they intended to export their own "specials" as they could obtain a better price.
He also said they couldn't sell any diamonds until they had obtained the full mining licence, hence my expectation of an RNS when they receive this.
GayBriefs
- 15 Jun 2005 11:35
- 859 of 1909
Well its obvious that no news is bad news in nmls case thats if they actually have any news or diamonds for that matter.If they had good news they would have released it before the placing to reduce the dilution effect on shareholders or be able to raise more capital.
As a result does anyone know if its possible to short the Pants off this stock anywhere?
mjr1234
- 15 Jun 2005 11:43
- 860 of 1909
Are you saying that because you've recently sold out at 3.5p GayBriefs?
If so, maybe you should take your pink pants elsewhere instead of clogging up the discussion board with poop?
takahe
- 15 Jun 2005 11:43
- 861 of 1909
Gay Briefs is very active today on a few threads...
stockdog
- 15 Jun 2005 11:48
- 862 of 1909
No doubt putting a bit of stick about as the PM in House Of Cards used to say!
Wendy D
- 15 Jun 2005 13:46
- 863 of 1909
GayBriefs - why not ask the directors or management if they will lend you some of the 30% they own? Then you could sell away and make a fortune, couldn't you?
takahe
- 15 Jun 2005 15:46
- 864 of 1909
stockdog- he was quite a chilling figure, the PM in that
mjr1234
- 15 Jun 2005 15:56
- 866 of 1909
"Postman Pat much more fun than shiny stones"
Each to there own I suppose.
Personally, I prefer diamonds!
EWRobson
- 15 Jun 2005 15:56
- 867 of 1909
By gum! Come for an update and pages to wade through! A bit like the alluvial gravel but very few diamonds in there! Actually there was the odd nugget! Particularly appreciated Wendy's posts 768 and 775. Also, generally more aware of the history which helps to explain that the city is less than convinced about NML. Funnily enough, the other positive posts were from anomelette including his eggstatic response: there ought to be a qualifier for any post that something humourous is said!
First helpful post was the projected spreadsheet (post 703). You can see from this that it is no disaster if the mining rate drops because of the rainy season: presumably costs drop as well and there is still a good surplus on the project.
The other positive input was the reproduction of the geological analysis from the other sites. This quoted a total potential of $284m with probability rates of 0.4 (for $200m) and 20% for the remainder. You could argue that this gives a weighted figure of $97.3m but the city is not going to wear that. So I have gone back to the reserves report which states:
"The Rio Lapi Garimpo reserves have been investigated in detail and are considered proven. Upside potential is derived from Rio Lapi Targets A-E with an inferred Resource of 3,790,080 carats. These will be mined during a period of increased production and will therefore yield the highest profit of US$124 per carat. If this profitability level were maintained, the above indicated resource would yield a pre tax profit in excess of US$ 500 million. It is reasonable to assume that the exploration and exploitation of the inferred reserves carries some commercial and technical risk and the above resource and value will not be achieved. However, based on the history, local knowledge and the geology of the area, there is a reasonable expectation of at least 40% success and an expected value of US$ 200 million."
So the $200m is AFTER applying the 40% factor. It is not a weighting of whether anything is recovered at all but AFTER appplying commercial and technical risk. The geologist's report is evidently stating that there will be on-going recovery: not necessarily at the same profit level but with much higher gross revenues.
Anonymous reminds me of Insiderinside from the SEO thread in terms of posts which are excessively one-sided and unbalanced. Perhaps I can have a balanced response to this geological analysis without, PLEASE, regurgitating any of the old stuff ad nauseam. As SD, I have an exploratory stake in this company, primarily based on the evident quality of the geological analysis: I hope this thread can give balanced views so that we can weigh the current position and, hopefully, one day weigh the diamonds!
Eric
stockdog
- 15 Jun 2005 16:42
- 869 of 1909
Eric, I was relying on you for this one being a dead cert. Now you tell me you were relying on jollylogical anomalies! If I'd have known . . .
I have previously suggested a carat and stick approach to this share.
At least she for whom diamonds will forever be a best friend is still in - that's some comfort. Where are you, you volatile mix of carbon and oxidant?
Does that qualify as humourous?
hangdog
stockdog
- 15 Jun 2005 16:53
- 871 of 1909
consider me squelched
anomadog
mjr1234
- 15 Jun 2005 16:55
- 872 of 1909
Good post Eric, hopefully the more "negative" posters on here may take a read and reconsider their stance.
..
By gum! Come for an update and pages to wade through! A bit like the alluvial gravel but very few diamonds in there! Actually there was the odd nugget! Particularly appreciated Wendy's posts 768 and 775. Also, generally more aware of the history which helps to explain that the city is less than convinced about NML. Funnily enough, the other positive posts were from anomelette including his eggstatic response: there ought to be a qualifier for any post that something humourous is said!
First helpful post was the projected spreadsheet (post 703). You can see from this that it is no disaster if the mining rate drops because of the rainy season: presumably costs drop as well and there is still a good surplus on the project.
The other positive input was the reproduction of the geological analysis from the other sites. This quoted a total potential of $284m with probability rates of 0.4 (for $200m) and 20% for the remainder. You could argue that this gives a weighted figure of $97.3m but the city is not going to wear that. So I have gone back to the reserves report which states:
"The Rio Lapi Garimpo reserves have been investigated in detail and are considered proven. Upside potential is derived from Rio Lapi Targets A-E with an inferred Resource of 3,790,080 carats. These will be mined during a period of increased production and will therefore yield the highest profit of US$124 per carat. If this profitability level were maintained, the above indicated resource would yield a pre tax profit in excess of US$ 500 million. It is reasonable to assume that the exploration and exploitation of the inferred reserves carries some commercial and technical risk and the above resource and value will not be achieved. However, based on the history, local knowledge and the geology of the area, there is a reasonable expectation of at least 40% success and an expected value of US$ 200 million."
So the $200m is AFTER applying the 40% factor. It is not a weighting of whether anything is recovered at all but AFTER appplying commercial and technical risk. The geologist's report is evidently stating that there will be on-going recovery: not necessarily at the same profit level but with much higher gross revenues.
Anonymous reminds me of Insiderinside from the SEO thread in terms of posts which are excessively one-sided and unbalanced. Perhaps I can have a balanced response to this geological analysis without, PLEASE, regurgitating any of the old stuff ad nauseam. As SD, I have an exploratory stake in this company, primarily based on the evident quality of the geological analysis: I hope this thread can give balanced views so that we can weigh the current position and, hopefully, one day weigh the diamonds!
..