A busy day in the Warsaw Underground !

Not just another coffee shop chain - this one is a brand leader and is only trading in Eastern/Central Europe (i.e. the countries recently admitted to the EU destined for substantial business growth). The company is creating new outlets at a fair old pace and take a look at their website - these are quality stores in high-profile locations like major airports, railway stations etc. Website: http://www.coffeeheaven.eu.com

APRIL 2006 TRADING UPDATE!!! Total Gross Revenues for 12 months to 31st March up 66% to £6.3M (2005: £3.8M) Lots more info. on new markets and stores click here to read the full details. Stores: 43 (up from 32) stores currently trading (Poland: 30 (up from 23), Czech Republic: 6 (Up from 2), Latvia: 7 with a further 5 units under construction including Bulgaria and sites secured in Romania (subject contract). Bulgaria & Romania are seeking to join the EU from January 2007. Sites located in key high street, shopping malls or Airport locations. Company growth target: increase number of units by at least 20 units to some 63 units by 31 March 2007. Aim being to achieve this level of growth within present Cash resources.Cash balances at 31 March 2006 were approximately £2.9M (2005: £0.7M). Debt was nil (2005: £ 2.5M): Nil Debt! Positive EBITDA: For the year ending 31 March 2006, Group EBITDA expected to be firmly positive after charging UK and new market development costs but before exceptional costs relating to the cancellation of bonds (previous Debt). Forecasts: Based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates we anticipate indicative sales of £9.3M for the year to 31 March 2007. This includes indicative sales of £0.4M from Bulgaria, which will be reported but not consolidated. From Richard Worthington (Chairman and Chief Executive): ‘The new financial year has started well. There is no doubt that the significant economic improvement in our markets is feeding through to consumer confidence and spending. The strength of the coffeeheaven brand ensures we are ideally positioned to benefit from our customers' increasing prosperity.’

What ever you may think please think it, it would appear based on your observations NUMIS is in the same boat also.

Look my simplistc friend there is enough information floating around these BB to write a book on a Fundamental or Technical analysis of COH.

I prefer the former.You dont seem happy with that so thats that.

Using my analysis I have concluded that COH needs to go a lot further in aggressively marketing its product and brand name as it is in danger of losing the little market share it currently enjoys. You do not appear happy with that so thats that.

I have conclude that a 1000 pounds per week NETT per store should be an achieveable meab average, and that COH is working way below the achievement that perhaps a more innovated management style would demand.

The figuers banded about by Numis for 2011 are there for all to see and need no further illuminatation. However without a profit history they are pure conjecture and highly speculativeas I believe that for COH faced with increasing competition it will be reaching for the sky without an areoplane.

I do not believe in making highly speculative posts based on outlandish prefabricated models which tend to churn out whatever figure one may convenient desire.

However if you want projections for a decent company such as MLR I will be more than happy to furnish them. My COH projections would make me look rather foolish when considring NUMIS and other and what is already on iii.


However I am more than happy to be a minority

If that makes me a fraud then so be it, I am also happy to be one.

Well, that clears that up, then. Are you sure you should be going down the pub, David. You know what the experts say about mixing alcohol, medication and darts. You ARE on medication, aren't you? Please tell me you're not one of those poor "care in the community" cases who have been so callously left to cope with their illnesses themselves!

I have read through your posts here and it seems that you have a personal grouse about the management.I'm not interested in that at all. I'm only interested in what profit/loss COH will make in the future.You say it's overvalued and cannot give a projection as it will make you look foolish.So there you have it,unwilling to give a forcast.I am now convinced you are incapable of seeing past your personal issues.

If I were working at COH's Uckfield HQ, I'd be a very worried man. Not because of the wobbling sp or profit projections but because I'd fear a visit from a very disgruntled non-investor. Forget running a thriving business, RW, be on the look-out for an old codger bearing a grudge... it could be our David.

paulj and Dave the Rave are the same old codger>>>

It really become so very sad when a limited perspective tries to force its views upon a cautious approach to a projected profit forecast.

Before I would commit myself to such for COH, I would have to consider so many vague intangibles.

Mr Worthington has stated that he is too busy runing his coffee shops to be the real estate business. Does this mean no new coffee bars, as I questioned previously above here somewher?

Then of course there will be the impact of the ever increasing competition, which is a vastly unknown quantity and sure to stunt any projected earnings forecast.

Then to consider if LFL sales will continue to increase or decrease if COH open not so profitable(what profit) bars, as the good location are drying up.

Mr Worthington must be in a right old quandry over these issues, but not I dare say a sweat.

But then why though should he be?

Up to now the COH bank balance is far more dependant on shareholders funds than profits from working the coffee bars.

Frankly I dont see that situation changing than much in the near furture as the above mentioned competition surely creeps in and the cost of new leases continue to go berserk.

Also another important factor to local trading---the novelity factor may beging to wear off.

Now I must go rain of not.

Have a pleasant eveing one and all.

I may be sad, bmw, but i'm not THAT sad! (on second thoughts, maybe I SHOULD have something better to do on a Sunday evening... like playing darts with David).

Amazing,people put values on companies far more complex such as BP with the unknowns of Gazprom trying to take their Russian assets , VOD with the unknown effect of VOIP,RIO is the copper/China bubble going to burst,but you cannot produce even a view on next years turnover on COH.I get more concerned that you are only trying to criticise the management and this is not backed up by figures as they would as you say make you look silly.

Good afternoon.

It really amazes me that some people cant take a hint and dont know when to stop.

I thought I had given a balanced answer to Proteus.

Obviously it was not quite good enough.

So lets us try this one: Coffeheaven and its supporters boast the fact that the company has money to spend.

However few say that this money has come from selling more shares than selling coffee.

Without these new placings, which had the effect of further seriously diluting shareholder value, COH would be in debt today, or to be fair all round, very very close to it.

I keep on stressing the value of the need for profits, profits, profts, yet my appeals always seem to be falling a deaf ears, despite the fact that COH has no intrisic profit based value!

This is an essential ingredient in any PLC valuation process. Numis oviously got a little over excited over COH and ended up having to, eat crow, as did the investors who bought on the hype of the recent placing without---looking hard enough as they probably did before they lept in but failing to be observant enough to open their eyes before the big jump into the instant RED abyss of a disasterous placing..

Therefore let me conclude by reaffirming my position on future forecasts for COH---without a solid profit base, its impossible to do this with any accuracy, so the exercise on guestimates would be futile, and therefore best left to the specialist of mystic predictions---the brokers.

However, what I can say and with a degree of certainty, is that without the two cash calls COH would be in serious trouble if not bust.

In this game it is often said to be sound abvice to the follow the moves of the boss.

I believe that the boss in this case, the shrewed man you all say that he is, knew when to sell for the best price and did so. I further believe that all board memebers are fully aware of the effect on the compnay when they sell its stock.

Therefore for Mr Worthington to keep on sending out positive vibs to shareholders such as the admirably loyal Mr AdieH and to be doing so while selling hus very own shares, is not really what I would call cricket.

But then cricket has changed out of all recognition from the Sunday gentleman's outting on the green that it used to be.

I trust that you all are enjoying having a little paddle this bank hollie.

In other words you are not willing or capable of producing any figures to back up your claims.I repeat,the market judges the share price on present and future profit/loss.What do you think next years figures will be ? No drawn out waffle,a simple range will suffice,if you are capable.Stage 1.Here's a start,how many stores will they have this year and what is the likely sales / store.Multiplying them together gives an estimate of next years sales.Can't be simpler can it.

It's a little damp for cricket, David, though I'm sure you'd enjoy an "outing on the green with other gentlemen".
As for COH, I see you once again avoided giving any forecast which would help to reinforce your pessimistic view of the firm. Instead, like a jilted lover you continue to devote yourself to "dissing" the management - even over such things as share sales, which almost every director does from time to time.
I really don't know why you have such a "downer" on RW and COH. After all, it's not as if you have any money on the table, is it?
Rather than pretending to be an interested onlooker, perhaps you're just a sour coot with rather too much time on your hands.

Whatever my capabilitiesmay of may not be, they are unimportant as the market, as you rightly say judges the SP.

WELL SIR THE VERDICT IS OUT!!

The market has spoken on COH and the SP has fallen

The the figures that you persistantly request are clearly within the Numis brokers note, and they surely must be a better and more authoritative source than I.

Therefore I suggest that you consult their lastest BN which has forecasts all the way up to 2011.

So you are not capable of backing up your claims then ?

He there Paulj

I do feel most sincerely that you would be better following the professional brokers for the forecast you require as I may go to the other extreme and claim they may start closing stores etc.

As for your other ungainly suppositions, well to be fair and equitable you may well be right, but on the other hand I could just have a genuine interest in warning, no alerting is the better choice of a word, any potential new shareholders to look very closely at COH and it chairman.

Nothing to be lost in doing one's research is there?

May I respectfully suggest that you utilise your time more lucratively over this damp squid bank holiday and try to find some flaw in MLR.

MLR will I believe start to fly this week!

WE ARE HERE TO MAKE MONEY AFTER ALL ARE WE NOT?

So noble, David. And here I was thinking you were bitter and twisted when, all along, you were performing a civic duty for which we should all be grateful. Keep up the good work!

PROTEUS LAST WORD ON THE TOPIC.

PLEASE TAKE YOUR LEAD FROM THE NUMIS NOTE AS IT IS FAR MOR FAVOURABLE THAN WHAT I WOULD STATE..

Thank paulj, that you for your kind words of encouragement.

So state yours then,we're all interested to know how you come up with figures that show the price is too high.Here's a little help with the first line.The sales / store has risen each year as the stores mature.Last year they were 157k / store,Now do you think they will be say 163k / store or does that underestimate their growth rate ?The target is 90 stores so multiplying 90 by 163 would give you 14.67m sales.Simple isn't it or do you want to reconsider the 163 / store. I can help you with this if you want.

Come on sir you press the 9 then the zero then the cross,then the1,6 and 3 on the calculator.I this does not give you the figure you want you then justify whether the 90 or 163 are wrong.Easy isn't it.

Sir it is so easy even Numis can do it.

But I am not really interested in sales per store, but profit per store in the search for the all important intrinsic value.

You quote an average sales figue per store, and perhaps this is what is wrong with COH, as it would be more beneficial for us to know what stores are not making the grade and need to be closed. hense my earlier commentt of closing stores rather then opening new ones----I trust you can get it.

COH need to be telling us it bottom line profit expectations for each store.

Profit is the bye word LFL sales means little in this resepct as the its the bottom line profit figure that movea the SP and give a company value.

It would be good to know also what stores are not making your figure of 157K, what stores are surpassing it, and what stores are running on a loss.