Read the latest interims.......just make sure that you are sitting down.

then up like a damp squib? ... lol!

Unlikely, Cynic, or you wouldn't be holding ;o)

don't get burnt by damp squibs ..... only by falling into the bonfire when the rocket falls like a stick

Afternoon all. Just by way of giving the pot a stir, I've been exchanging a few thoughts about eventual earnings over on the other BB. SOLA should hit output of 125MW-worth of PV cells sometime in 2007.

A fag-packet calculation suggests the figures for a theoretical financial year sometime betweem 2007 - 2008 could add up as follows (based on figures lifted from the recent quarterlies):

full-year's EPS just over 40p,
on production of 125MW-worth of product,
for an SP of 568p a share,
at an arbitrary but hopefully reasonable PE of 14.

IMO, PDYOR, etc.

LONDON (AFX) - Buyers came for ReneSola in the wake of trading update and the shares advanced 10-1/2 pence to 182-1/2.

The manufacturer of wafers for the photovoltaic industry disclosed that all 54 additional monocrystalline furnaces planned for 2006 are now in full production, bringing the total number of furnaces currently in operation to 90, which is equivalent to an installed capacity of 80 MW per annum.

The first wire saw for the slicing of ingots into wafers has also now been

fully commissioned and is now fully operational.

Excellent news! Ian, thanks very much for the post as I am having difficulty accessing certain sources of info this morning.

and never mind 10p, here's the latest SP: SOLA Bid: 193p Offer: 196p Change: 22.5

ST

I genuinely believe that your 'fag-packet' calculations for forecast eps of 40p as posted above could easily be surpassed.

Even after the rise today the share price looks extremely attractive.

Ian

Ian,

I agree on both counts, but like to stay a little bit conservative with my estimates. There are too many punters on the other side coming out with figures like 10 a share without providing any support for their guesswork; also some people out there just don't have a Scooby-Doo when it comes to fundamentals, reading financial info, etc.

I'd prefer to revise my estimate upwards if the situation calls for it in six or twelve months' time. The potential four-bagger I believe I'm sitting on is already a good enough reason to invest.

Best of luck.
ST.

SCSW has reiterated their BUY standing this weekend.

But for me supply being wrapped up would seal a decent rise for SOLA I do believe (the effect is pointed to below in the opening paragraph), its one of their few possible weak points among an array of strong points.


http://www.digitimes.com/bits_chips/a20061003A4017.html


Motech: Monthly revenue setback due to equipment installation at new plant

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Esther Lam, DigiTimes.com [Tuesday 3 October 2006]


In response to market speculation about the impact of an unstable silicon material supply on the company's financial performance, Motech Industries reiterated that it has no concerns over raw material supply, and the temporary monthly revenue setback is just a reflection of the equipment move-in schedule at its new plant.

The solar-cell maker stressed that its self-sufficiency in raw material remains as previously projected, adding that marketers are too sensitive about Motech's monthly revenue fluctuations.

Motech said its monthly revenues have remained above NT$700 million since April, with April-to-June revenues even hitting record-high levels. The company explained that the setback in July and August revenues was due to a drop in working hours resulting from an equipment move-in at its second plant, while September's revenues were affected by a delay in the equipment-move-in schedule.

Some industry players have expressed concern regarding Motech's supply deal with the Norway-based REC ScanWafer since both parties are longstanding partners, and they worry that the new contract might be just a new version of the already established contract, with much of the agreed supply volume overlapping with the old contract. For its partnership with SolarWorld AG, industry players said the secured amount of silicon had not increased significantly.

However, given that the good news has now been around for a few weeks and the production is all but sold out for 2007, I would be surprised to see much action in the short term. In fact, there may be some weakness, presenting a buying opportunity for those of such a mind.

For 'cynic', you might know another poster called "gastrader" on a a rival site, here is the latest text from SCSW



SCSW finish their article with "Given the growth rate we can see the shares testing 300p in short order. Still a buy"

That's 60% upside from where we are now. Given the influence of SCSW on PIs, I think that statement is enough to get this testing 200 on Monday. We shall see. :-)

Anyway, here is the whole article for those that are interested:


Renesola gapped higher following a trading statement which said roll-out of its mono crystalline furnaces has been completed ahead of schedule and all 90 furnaces are operational (this was expected by the end of 2006). The companys commissioning of wire saws to slice the silicon ingots into wafers is also progressing ahead of schedule, with the first saw already operational, four additional saws being installed and the remaining 17 saws should be delivered by the end of 2006. Renesola also said it has entered into long-term sales contracts with three solar module producers. Over 90% of capacity for 2007 is now pre-sold. Broker Ambrian forecasts sales of US$90m and profit of US$22.6m this year, almost US$4m ahead of the forecast we included last month.

Given the growth rate we can see the shares testing 300p in short order. Still a buy.

SCSW, have also added sola to their portfolio, the only for this month, if you look at the learned folk on the rival site, supplies should NOT be a problem.

could side with either argument ...... if FTSE manages to consolidate above 6000, it is quite likely to climb quite sharply and perhaps take SOLA with it ..... while i would accept that 200 or even a little more is far from impossible in that scenario, my own view is that "testing 300p in short order" is more than a trifle optimistic.

The folling is an extract from another poster on a rival site

Gas Trader - 6 Oct'06 - 10:53 - 4849 of 5055
,,,,, only listen to those who are telling you to buy when they are offloading...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Without selling a single share and borrowing to buy more, I have been vociferous in telling PIs that I expect earnings of 14c with the next results and 19C for Q4, then 46C for Q1 07 - That is to say 7.6p,10.3p, and 24.9p for Q3 and the two consecutive quarters. That points to a minimum of 70p for the rolling year ahead. With nil tax charge that points to a PE of under 3 and huge current undervaluation.

I am not normally malicious but I look forward, with near certainty, to the humiliation for this loud mouth unless he disappoints me by closing his position. Others who may be astonished by the view I am taking might like to see the numbers on which my own forecasts are based

.....................Q1..........Q2.............Q3.........Q4 .........Q1/'07
Ovens installed 16 36 av for Q3...54 90 90+15 Multi/C
wafer slicers 1 av for Q3....3 5 24
SALES $17.1m $24.1m F $36.0m F$60.0m $90.om
gross margin 25.7% 31.7% F 34% F36% 38%
gross profit $1.736m $5.6m F$14.6m F$21.6mF F$47.30m
selling expenses $0.083m $0.112m F$0.170m F$0.240m F $0.330m
Admin $0.193m $0.387m F$0.550 F$0.730m F $0.910m
OPERATING PROFIT $1.532m $5.200m F13.880m F$19.630m F 46.060m

the above figures include an extra sales yield of 10% on the part or whole volume of ingots sliced in house, as well as a $0.40 per wafer reduced from cost of sales where appropriate. In Q1 that adds $9,000,000 to sales and reduces COS by $5,000,000.

After the Q3 results I and others foolhardy enough to attempt forecasting will be able to to calibrate their own efficiency and adjust Q4 and owards. Q2 '07 should by then be visible. The outcome will depend on whether further ovens and wafer slicers have been ordered for delivery before April.

Very lively this morning !!!

SCSW have a target of 300p in their latest update.

Ian

Morning all,

Based on SCSW's figures, 300p would be a PE of just over 25 times earnings - and this would drop considerably fo 2008 based on SOLA's intention to increase capacity by a further 50% (to 125 MW) in 2007.

Seems reachable to me.

FWIW I don't think that supply of silicon should be too big a problem given that SOLA is able to recycle waste silicon from other applications. If supply was to get tight then I think I'd take the view that I would cross that bridge as I come to it. The main thing for me with this stock at present is to profit from the rise that the earnings figures over the next 18 months or so are sure to produce.

PDYOR, etc.

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20061010070000P6004.html

A very bullish production update this morning. A significant increase in planned production:


2007 Production Capacity Expansion

The planned expansion of the Company's production capacity has been revised
from 125 MW by the end of 2007 to a target of 180 MW to address the strong
market demand for solar wafers. To supplement ReneSola's existing 90
monocrystalline furnaces, it is planned that 100 MW of new production capacity
will be provided by multicrystalline furnaces. The Company will then have a
balanced product output to better meet the market demand. In tandem with the
capacity increase, the Company plans to install an additional 24 wire saws to
slice the ingots from the increased production capacity into wafers. The
capacity expansion will be financed through a combination of the proceeds of
the Company's recent flotation and operating cash flow.

That SCSW target of 300p is only the start !!!!!!!!

Ian

onwards and upwards! This little gem has hardly been noticed by the big boys yet glad we're in early.

Fantastic news! - great post, Ian, thanks!

So the expected production ramp-up by year-end 2007 compared with year-end 2006 has increased from 56% to 225%. And the best bit is, we still haven't seen the company post a full year's results for its planned full capacity for this year of 80MW, so there is a lot more growth to come.

I like the sound of 300p, which could now easily be realised by the end of this year, however, by my reckoning a price of 8 a share could be on the cards over 18 months.

PDYOR, etc.

Quarterly results due in mid-November? I can't wait . . . .