.

Given the pretty vertical take off of late, one should expect a retrace to say 5p levels (as people take profits).

Given its May soon, and May is generally not a good month for shares, some profit taking might be expected therefore, before the real build up to the G-1 drilling results.

Coming up for over a 3 bagger now for me :)

Will it consolidate ? Will it be 6p or 7p or even higher before there is a back test to firm up the rise.

Don't care, it can stay blue for ever more, but it will not thats for sure.

It's been a long time coming, but it is looking better for AST now.

Patience is the key to making money. When most were being stupid, I was buying like mad at under 3p.

Today I am more than happy, and holding on for the G-1 drill results, and more..... :)

Sadly I reduced my holding far too soon! Still have a few left though which I will hang on to.

PP - do you have, and if so, what is your long term target?

I am hoping for success at Gazzatta and also Anagni, and with that a price in the region of 50p to 100p for end of this year.

But, success is difficult to come by, so making any such prediction is difficult, as so much can go wrong.

Short term on the back of G-1 being a success then we should be over 20p, even over 30p would not be too difficult I think due to the derisking of the R-1 project with G-1 being good, if it is.

Thanks, maybe trailing stop then!

FWIW this (recent News) "Mexican-flu =pandemic" risks travel ( and customers!). . . . so it's possible the price of oil will fall. It won't affect the fuel in yr car, but may affect oil-Co profits and that includes the upper-end of any predictions . . . but I will be very grateful if 1 is reached, this stock has slipped from higher prices as "interest" has waned in the Market generally.
I hold a few from lower.

PEN-104 is back on line.


News from one of the partners in the Hungary.

http://www.dualexen.com/documents/news/2009/DXE-2009-04-30.pdf


"........During the quarter the Company continued to produce natural gas from its Hungary property which increased quarterly production to 1,253 mcfe/d and annual production to 573 mcfe/d. As announced on January 21, 2009, production was shut-in in January due to a compressor failure in the regional gas supply infrastructure. The Company used this stoppage to drill the Pen 104A sidetrack well to access additional gas reserves in a structurally higher part of the reservoir. The Pen 104A well was successfully drilled and was placed on production April 29, 2009 at a restricted rate of 3 million cubic feet per day..........."

I have been tucking a few more away on weakness, anthing below 8.15p and I am adding today:)

Gazzatta-1 should be spudding next week, then only 4 weeks of drilling before we know about the prospects there, anything commercial, if it is, could add value to AST of between 1p to 100p, just depending on the final size of any such find.

Quite exciting really.


And back in Hungary, here is some information thanks to "oiljack" :

More Hungary information, including price of gas as of May 2009, and more Tunisia information....

It is funny how much WIX, or Winstar, and DXE have in common. They have properties in Hungary and Tunisia like us. We have production in Hungary and are hoping to get production in Tunisia and they have production in Tunisia and are hoping to get production in Hungary. I find their investor information packages to be quite useful, amazing really, from an information point of view.

The May 2009 stated price of gas in Hungary is $10.50 mcfe/Ca. or $8.50 mcfe/US. The spring-summer price is always lower than the fall-winter price even though it is mainly based on a weighted 9 month average of the price of Brent etc.


Fiscal and Economic Regime

Royalty: 13%

Income Tax when applicable 16%

Current Gas Price: ~$10.50 CAD/mcf ($8.50 US/mcf)



The price of drilling has also come down quite far. A 1500 metre Pannonian well now costs $2 mm to drill and test and complete according to their numbers. Drill, complete and test, and tie in costs are 2 mm.

Drilling Option - Q1 2010

Drill 2 wells (1500m) per block

Cost: $2 Million per well (d, c & c)


WIX is investigating the Zala Basin where AST has their Bajcsa Gas Field to redevelop (60 bcf) and there are many 100 bcf (8+) gas fields already discovered there. This area has been extensively drilled up by MOL and yet it remains an area of keen interest to the like of MOL-INA (Croatian national oil co now controlled by MOL), AST, HHE and WIX. This is the western Pannonian fairway and the eastern Pannonian fairway where we now operate is only getting extensive drilling operations in the past 2 years. The same players are now very active there and are drilling more on a proportional basis (number of wells) than in the western portion of the country.

Here is WIX's farm in contract - won't be there long - so if you get a chance give it a read.

http://www.winstar.ca/documents/2009/Miscellaneous/Igal Farmout Ad - May 6 2009.pdf


.

Given that the spud date should be around this weekend, and hoping its going to be on time, we should be looking for an RNS late next week to tell the markets that the well has spudded.

Should drive some excitement given the potential upside from this well. We will surely attract all the hot money and rampers again once they realise that this stock has upside on this well that no other stocks can compare too.

The real beauty of the Po Valley is that the drill is in a gas producing area, the biggest one in Italy, and with all the necessary infrastructure in place. Find gas and it can be put on line simply BUT also there is the option to sell, as its located in a gas producing basin the money paid for "in the ground" proven gas is very high, and so it is an option.

However, with the Anagni-2 well due to come soon too, and a very good chance that will find commercial oil, its going to be far better for AST to, if they can of course, find gas at Gazatta and then oil at Anagni and then with an SP way way higher than today raise some money to put them both into production.

Either being a success will be good, if they both are a success you can kiss goodbye to sub 50p Ascent share price for ever.

You really should be a pollition speech writer, you sold it to me ...

It speaks for itself really, just a little research into the potential.

However, nothing wrong with helping it speak up a bit :)

Few bits of Otto news around. Its relevent to AST as Otto is paying for 100% of the upcoming (spud this weekend?) Gazatta-1 drill in the Po Valley in Italy, through to completion of testing.



First up.

Otto Energy has raised all their cash they wanted, this removes any issues over their funding of the Gazatta-1 drill that some may have tried to imply. All taken up and the shortfall has been placed.

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT 12 May 2009

ENTITLEMENT ISSUE

‐ NOTIFICATION OF SHORTFALL AND ALLOCATION OF SHORTFALL

Otto Energy Limited (ASX: OEL) (Company or Otto) advises that acceptances
under the Company’s non‐renounceable 3 for 4 entitlement offer announced on 3 April 2009 (Entitlement Issue) closed on 7 May 2009.

The Entitlement Issue raised approximately $16.2 million before issue costs.
Acceptances for 324,960,220 shares were received, representing a take‐up of
approximately 76.5% of the total entitlements available under the Entitlement
Issue.

The Company is also pleased to announce that it has placed the entire shortfall
under the Entitlement Issue to raise a total of approximately $21.2 million
(before issue costs). Placement shares will be allotted on or about 18 May
2009.

All shareholders who applied for entitlement shares under the Entitlement
Issue will receive their entitlement and application monies for additional new
shares will be refunded. Otto expects that, following allotment of the Entitlement Issue shares, holding statements and refund cheques will be dispatched on 14 May 2009. Yours faithfully,


---------------

Secondly, Production for Otto at Galoc is on now. Again meaning they are cashed up.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090513/42/26b1t.html

Otto Energy Limited (ASX:OEL) Announce Production At The Galoc Oil Field Has Recommenced
Wednesday May 13 4:34 PM

Perth, Australia, May 13, 2009 - (ABN Newswire) - Otto Energy Limited (ASX: OEL.AX)(PINK:OTTEF) has been advised by the field operator, Galoc Production Company WLL (GPC), that production from the Galoc oil field recommenced as of 1030hrs local time.

Both Galoc 3 and Galoc 4 wells are on line and flowing with .............

-----------------

Thirdly, a new broker report on Otto confirms the potential value to Otto for a "medium size" commercial find at Gazatta is 20 Oz cents per share. This equals 35p a share to Ascent. And of course, if the find should be top size the potential value to Otto is 60 Oz cents, and to Ascent 99p a share.

Upside.......love it. And this excludes of course any potential find at G-1 will make the next drill (Rubiera) a whole lot derisked and worth potentially quite a bit more to AST.

Here is the link to the Otto report.

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1318&PageName=StockAnalysis Special Report - OEL

Reading the bit from the Otto report link in the earlier post :

Otto is embarking on an active exploration phase, with the first cab off the rank being an A$8 million well in Italy’s Po Valley, where the Gazzata well is set to target an estimated 150 Bcf of gas during late May and June. Otto will fund 100% of this well as part of a programme to earn a 50% interest in the permit. Drilling at Gazzata has a main target zone at around 1,800 metres and if it has success at that level, drilling will continue to 3,000 metres to test a secondary target. StockAnalysis estimates that discovery of 130 Bcf of gas would be worth 20 cps to Otto and would open up further opportunities for the company at additional prospects on its permit. The gas price in Italy remains high, but the slow pace of development approvals can make this region a frustrating place for oil & gas companies. Otto is well positioned in the Po Valley, with several operating gas fields
surrounding its permit, excellent infrastructure and strong gas prices.


In case anyone is wondering about the secondary target, well this is where the potential upside comes from. The primary target is where the potential 35p a share to AST comes from, the upside to 99p a share potential comes from the secondary target.

In detail here from the farm out document :

The Gazzata Prospect: This is the primary stratigraphic trap identified in Ascent’s acreage associated with a clear AVO anomaly in the Porto Garibaldi sand. All the seismic lines across the prospect show a consistent dim out of the amplitude anomaly at a common depth. Crestal depth for the primary target is estimated to be 1,750 metres subsea.

Other sands within the Porto Garibali Formation show weaker AVO anomalies and form secondary targets within the prospect. All reservoirs are sealed by shales within the Porto Garibaldi formation. Using parameters from the Coreggio field, the Gazzata structure has estimated ‘most likely’ reserves of 130 Bcf recoverable
within the primary target and an upside in excess of 386 Bcf recoverable.


As ever this could be a dry well and worth nothing, but thats the risk on every drill.

MM's treeshaking stocks today looking for stop losses. AST swung done so I tried to buy, could not get any. Managed finally to get just over 30K at 7.25 and then and now cannot buy anymore on line.

Cannot blame them though, thats their job, make a market.

Financing now complete.....and ready to roll with the news in the months ahead.

:)


RNS Number : 2629S
Ascent Resources PLC
14 May 2009




Ascent Resources plc / Epic: AST / Index: AIM / Sector: Oil and Gas

14th May 2009

Ascent Resources plc ('Ascent' or 'the Company')

5m Equity Line of Credit Secured with GEM Global Yield Fund


Ascent Resources plc, the AIM-traded oil and gas exploration and production company, has entered into an agreement with GEM Global Yield Fund Limited ('GEM') whereby GEM has made available to the Company an equity line of credit of up to 5 million ('the Facility'). The Facility will be used to assist in funding the Company's exploration projects not covered by production revenue, and if appropriate, to finance investments in additional exploration projects that are outside the investment profile of the Ascent/San Severina asset management joint venture ('the JV') announced in October 2008.


Ascent Managing Director Jeremy Eng said, 'This arrangement fits well into our overall financing strategy and provides us with funding certainty and flexibility. We have an extensive portfolio of production and prospective exploration assets across Europe and this facility will assist in developing these assets. Additionally, the facility will also enable us to pursue further exploration projects not considered under our agreement with San Severina, at a time where there are distinct opportunities of acquiring distressed assets.


'The JV is progressing well and we look forward to announcing significant transactions which will provide both Ascent and San Severina with equity interests in oil and gas projects primarily outside of Ascent's European focus area in the near future. These projects will underpin our partnership, in which San Severina aims to invest an initial €100 million in oil and gas producing, appraisal or development projects.'


Under the terms of the Facility, the Company is able to make draw downs of cash, at times of its choosing, by issuing new ordinary shares to GEM. The equity line is available for three years from 13 May 2009 and draw downs cannot be called by GEM. The Company may issue a subscription notice requesting GEM to subscribe for a number of shares up to a maximum of 5 times the average daily trading volume in the 15 trading days immediately preceding the date of the subscription notice. GEM has the right to buy between 50% and 130% of the subscribed shares and can buy up to 200% with Company consent. The shares will be priced at a 9% discount to the average closing mid price of the shares over the 15 trading days immediately following the issue of the subscription notice. Furthermore, the Company has issued warrants to GEM over 15,000,000 shares which are exercisable at 10.16p for a period of five years from the date of issue.

Looks quite decent to me.

15m warrants at 10.16p, fine thats the sweetener and worth 1.5m cash to Ascent if utilised.

But the drawdown is along with a floating price mechanism, so if they are successful at Gazatta or Anagni (or indeed at both), the money gets much cheaper, and its called by AST and not GEM.

The amount of any dilution is subject to success with the drill bit.


Wonder what "distressed assets" Jeremy is planning on buying ?



Also nice little update on the SS deal, seems to be going well then.

Todays write up and opinion from OB of yesterdays news.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/news/display_news/article/ascent-resources-extends-credit-line-as-investors-await-news-of-first-san-severina-transaction/771.html

Ascent Resources Extends Credit Line As Investors Await News Of First San Severina Transaction

Ascent Resources has extended its credit facilities through a 5 million arrangement with GEM Global Yield Fund Limited, US$2.7 billion investment group. This move equips Ascent with the financial headroom to explore its existing assets or acquire distressed assets. Managing director Jeremy Eng said the arrangement provided funding “certainty and flexibility”. This is important because Ascent is at a very interesting point in its history, with a number of key developments promising much for the future.

The first such development is the alliance with San Severina Holdings, a Swiss based investment company, which was signed in October 2008 and has been described by analysts at Fox Davies Capital as “a game changing agreement”. The two companies agreed to form a joint venture that will acquire minority interests in upstream projects. Ascent will supply management services for these oil and gas properties in return for a carried equity stake in the projects while San Severina, an investment fund that has been active since 1972, will put up the cash as part of a wider plan to commit an initial €100 million to a new oil and gas investment division. As Jeremy Eng told oilbarrel.com at the time, “This is something very different for the industry. We think it’s got fantastic potential.”

But since then, this “fantastic potential” has been slow to materialise. Shareholders, frustrated by the lack of news since October, will have been gladdened by Thursday’s announcement, which saw Eng report that the joint venture was “progressing well” with the pair working on “significant transactions” that might be announced in the near future. In an announcement that will do little to quash rumours that Ascent is eying producing and development assets in the US, Eng confirmed that the transactions in question will lie “primarily outside of Ascent’s European focus area”.

The second key development is the imminent spudding of the Gazzata-1 well in Italy. Gazzata-1 will target an 8 sq km gas prospect, as defined on the seismic, with a possible 100 bcf-plus gas resource. This could be a company-maker and investors have been keen for the company to drill up this promising structure in Italy’s prolific Po Valley for some time. But Ascent was stymied here by its farm-in partner Otto Energy, which in December asked Ascent to hold off drilling the well until after mid-March. This was the second such request from ASX-listed Otto, which had been grappling with production problems on its Galoc field in the Philippines that weakened its financial position.

With Otto now back on track, Gazzata is, at the time of writing, due to spud any moment. Otto’s farm-in terms will see the Australian firm earn a 50 per cent interest in the Po Valley well in return for carrying Ascent’s costs, making this high impact well all the more appetising for investors. They now won’t have long to wait for news on the project: the Gazzata prospect lies at a depth of 2,100 metres and should take about a month to complete so investors should anticipate some news flow before the end of June.

Investors are also keen to hear more about the company’s ventures in Hungary, where Ascent is now producing gas from the PEN-104A well in eastern Hungary at a rate of 2.5 million cubic feet of gas per day (Ascent has a 45.23 per cent interest). This production income will help to underpin the company’s other exploration, appraisal and development projects in Hungary, where there is plenty of potential to add to the production tally in fairly short order.

According to analyst Stephane Foucaud of Fox Davies Capital, further development of the PEN-104 assets plus the redevelopment of the Bajcsa field in the southwest of Hungary (Ascent holds a 38.73 per cent interest) could see the company generate US$12 million in cash flows in 2010 and US$22 million a year from 2011. These are healthy numbers and will separate Ascent from many of its cash-strapped AIM peers.

The latest credit arrangement with GEM adds additional flexibility to the funding mix (Ascent doesn’t yet have enough producing wells to provide redundancy should one go offline as happened earlier this year when the PEN-104 well was shut-in for maintenance on some third-party equipment). Under the terms of the 5 million facility, Ascent can draw down cash by issuing new ordinary shares to GEM. The AIM company can issue a subscription notice requesting GEM to subscribe for a number of shares up to a maximum of five times the average daily trading volume in the 15 trading days immediately preceding the subscription notice. GEM has the right to buy between 50 and 130 per cent of the subscribed shares and can buy up to 200 per cent with Company consent. The shares will be priced at a nine per cent discount to the average closing mid price over the 15 trading days following the issue of the subscription notice.