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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

Strawbs - 18 May 2006 12:19 - 86 of 1564

Not sure which way it'll go. But any negative surprises won't be taken well, and positive RNS's seem to be ignored at the moment. I've been reducing most of my portfolio over the last 2 weeks. Fortunately I disposed of all my miners first (last week). I've reduced my portfolio further today, and I'm now 70/30, cash/equities. If I miss a big rally, so be it. Until I'm convinced there's some strength behind a move up, I'd rather take the safe option. I also think we'll drift over the summer, and less volatility should provide support for a move up again in the Autumn.

Strawbs.

jimmy b - 18 May 2006 12:23 - 87 of 1564

Funny you should post that GF , in this months Quantum Leap ,(and i quote)

Respected fund manager Anthony Bolton of Fidelity has been quoted recently as saying UK shares are too high and headed for a fall.This will have alarmed many investors .My advice is to pay no attention .He may be right ,more likely he is wrong. (unquote) .

Well he's half right ,lets see where we go from here ..

silvermede - 18 May 2006 13:47 - 88 of 1564

For what it's worth, when looking at FTSE 100, 350, Small Caps and AIM all shares Charts, all are still above the 200 Day Moving Average, though FTSE 100 is fairly close. Sep 05's market correction did not cross this line, but did so in 04. It remains to be seen whether this will be the support, we're not that far away from that testing moment.

goldfinger - 18 May 2006 14:10 - 89 of 1564

Jimmy, I think Bolton is and as been a very good fund manager one of the very best, but hes retiring and as hand picked his successor (2 of them) himself.

What better way to hand over the job but at the beginning of a new bull run say 12 months down the line and obviously he does nt want his reputation damaging at the very end of a distinguished career.

cheers Gf.

Chiva20 - 18 May 2006 14:38 - 90 of 1564

I reckon this is a pause for breath - an ugly heaving great big pause, but just a pause.

Chiva20 - 18 May 2006 14:40 - 91 of 1564

ST - BLVN showing good strength in light of the panic

soul traders - 18 May 2006 15:16 - 92 of 1564

Strangely enough, yes.

moneyplus - 18 May 2006 15:18 - 93 of 1564

EPY holding up well after it's RNS yesterday

goldfinger - 18 May 2006 23:22 - 94 of 1564

What about an Investors STRIKE??????????, show the MMs we mean business.

jimmy b - 18 May 2006 23:45 - 95 of 1564

Yup, no one buy anything for three months ,they'll be begging us to come back ,mind you is it their fault this time.??. I'm actually out of almost everything right now and playing Backgammon for Dollars on the net ,there is going to be some bargains about soon,but when ??..i'm waiting .

hlyeo98 - 19 May 2006 08:42 - 96 of 1564

I think buyers are back for bargain hunting today

jimmy b - 19 May 2006 09:02 - 97 of 1564

Not convinced this market has turned hlyeo .

Strawbs - 19 May 2006 09:11 - 98 of 1564

I'm not convinced either. I think pushing the price up on some of these shares will encourage people to get back in because they've had such a good run. If it's a false rally though then that could be an expensive mistake. Think I'll sit on my hands for a while yet.

Strawbs.

ellio - 19 May 2006 09:38 - 99 of 1564

Are you guys investors or short term traders?

If you are short term opportunists, to some extent we all are I know, but if you are holding for the long term what is all the fuss about, it is not as black as you paint it.

If I'm honest maybe there will be some further losses, but over 3-5 years woder where we'll be? my guess is 7000

Is oil & gas and commodities really going to drop back that much, how much at the pump?

Is India, China Asia really pulling back??

Is the US slowing down?

Are the Uk companies not making decent profits?

The market frets from tim to time and gets ahead of itself.

IMO this is a short term breath for air and maybe we'll see 5400 and maybe lower again, but we'll move forward, the end is not nigh my friends.

If you do trade my proposal is you open up some shorts/longs

Short-long the ftse/dow/nas at 10-20 per point. That way you lock in profits and if the market falls you use those profits to reinvest?

Likewise if the market rises, hopefully you sell some of your gains to pay your losses! either way you can stand still for a while if thats what you want to do until the market gets direction?

Strawbs - 19 May 2006 10:22 - 100 of 1564

I'm generally a long term investor, but do go overweight when I see the potential for extra returns. I try to buy when the market is on the floor and sell before the market is done, rather than chase the money. I sold my entire portfolio 6 weeks before the tech bubble crash and didn't invest again for nearly 2 years. I've done very well out of a bull market that's now been running for 3 years, and I'm expecting a downturn before too long, so for me it's time to lock in my profits and sit things out until the dust settles. I sold my mining portfollio 2 weeks ago, and now hold only a handful of oil and gas stocks. If I feel the time is right, I'll sell them too and walk away. If history is a guide to the future, there will be another major correction. Maybe not today or even this year, but it will come. With options expiry in the US today, don't be surprised if things get choppy again this afternoon. As ever though. Just my opinion. Good luck with your investments.

Strawbs.








jimmy b - 19 May 2006 11:00 - 101 of 1564

ellio , i go along with Strawbs sentiment, i don't know where we are going next ,if not down then maybe sideways ,so thats why i'm happy to wait ,if the market looks like its going to pick up then i'll start looking to get back in .

soul traders - 19 May 2006 11:42 - 102 of 1564

Good points, Strawbs.

I too would like to be able to ride the ups succesfully and either take some profits inorder to ride out the downs. Good point by Ellio about betting on a falling market, though.

I have to agree with Ellio about the fundamentals, however I feel that part of the game is about being able to anticipate the crowd, certainly over the longer term, which is what Strawbs seems to have done successfully.

cynic - 19 May 2006 11:48 - 103 of 1564

Given that there has already been a massive fallout, my gut feeling without knowledgeable logic, tells me that the expiry of options in NY will not have a negative influence - i.e. any damage is already done.

Lots of you are far more knowledgeable than me (not hard!), so please correct me if my comment is typical codswallop!

ellio - 19 May 2006 11:49 - 104 of 1564

Well done Strawbs you are a canny investor!!

Good points by all? have your shorts ready strawb and then you can win both ways??

goldfinger - 19 May 2006 12:15 - 105 of 1564

Ellio, what would you short though? as I actually TRADE both ways but my investment portfolio long is for the long term.

I can see no compelling reason to short (because of this correction)any small caps/aim stocks that are trading on underdemanding P/E ratios in general and consistantly not only meeting forecasts but beating them.

If we were to go back to 2000 and the start of the Bear market not only were techs trading in silly P/Es well over 50 but stocks in general had been pulled up.

Obviously their is the one off situations, but these were their before this correction.

In short I feel we will be back to positive ways in a few weeks time.

I still though think the MMs get away with murder in times like this.
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