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Update Time: (April 3rd) Hong Kong 18:15 London 11:15 New York 06:15



FX Analyst - Pro Commentary - April 5th

Schaff Tutorials - System Alerts





General Market Conditions
Our suspicion that the Europeans had completed the pullback proved correct and the resumption of the Dollar uptrend came swiftly and aggressively. After such sudden and aggressive moves it is difficult to judge whether there will be immediate follow-through or a correction before the next leg. In this case we feel the chances favor direct follow through and will look the the key retracement and break levels to confirm this. Overall, we consider the move on Friday as probable confirmation of a larger Dollar rally that may start a little erratically but should smooth out later. Against the Japanese Yen the reaction was mooted and here we still feel the downside has sway. However, first move should be to retest the 105.00-20 pivot resistance before the decline resumes. Have a profitable week.

GBPUSD

Price: 1.8305
Day View
Resistance: 1.8325 1.8345 1.8365 1.8400

Support: 1.8290 1.8260 1.8225 1.8200



Bias: Lower after a pullback

Bullish: Loss of the uptrend channel has put an end to the bullish run. The most we can see after Friday's sharp decline is a move back up to test 1.8345 which we feel should hold. There is also resistance at 1.8365 and only above here would cause a deeper pullback to 1.8400-30.



Bearish: The decline on Friday was decisive and we feel that after an early test of the 1.8345-65 area that the downside will once again come under pressure. Thus from 1.8345-65 or on a direct loss of 1.8255-65 we look for losses to resume towards 1.8200 at least and we suspect the 1.8165 level though look for this to generate a further pullback.





Week View
Resistance: 1.8365 1.8465 1.8530 1.8605

Support: 1.8255 1.8165 1.8070 1.8000



The warning of a possible peak at 1.8603 proved timely with the sharp drop below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which quickly reached the 1.8255 support area. Schaff Trend Cycle is now declining but is low while FXS-RSI matched the decline although is now in neutral territory. We consider the drop as confirmation of our bearish stance and look for further losses over the week.



Bullish: The aggressive move lower to 1.8255 does not support a bullish stance. The most we can see from here is a move to 1.8460-70, possibly 1.8530 but we doubt that we shall see a move this high at all. More likely a cap around 1.8345-65 should be seen this week. Thus only above 1.8365 causes follow-through to the higher levels stated.



Bearish: Friday's move lower encourages the underlying bearish view. We feel that 1.8345-65 is likely to hold and quickly allow losses to develop that should first reach 1.8165 and after a brief pullback we see potential for further losses down to the 1.8000 intermediate low.



Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 1.8875 1.9025 1.9140 1.9305

Support: 1.8000 1.7820 1.7660 1.7370



The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and should easily reach the 1.7820 initial target and we feel that while this may cause a brief reaction higher the downside is still preferred following that test. Further support is found at 1.7660.

5 Apr 2004 09:16 GMT =DJ Charting Europe: Euro/Dollar To Decline Below $1.20 Zone


By Axel Rudolph, MSTA
A Dow Jones Newswires Column

LONDON (Dow Jones)--With U.S. payroll numbers beating all expectations with a 380,000 lift Friday, that lead to a huge sell-off in U.S. and European fixed income markets with U.S. Treasuries recording their largest falls in eight years, signaling that the trend in U.S. long-term rates is back up.

This rate hike optimism will continue to fuel the dollar's strength and as suggested last week that trend looks set to continue in coming days and weeks.

So what does that mean for the euro/dollar exchange rate?

The probabilities are extremely high that the euro/dollar trading range between $1.2467 and $1.2054 of the last month will break to the downside, so any short-term weakness in the dollar should be seen as a buying opportunity.

Thus any short-term bounce into the $1.2180 to $1.2250 zone could be used to sell the currency pair with a stop loss having to be placed above Friday's intraday high at $1.2380 though.

If my euro/dollar bearish view turns out to be correct, then this stop loss level should not only not be reached but there should also be little in the way of support for the cross until $1.1848, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the euro's September to February uptrend.

There is one support zone on the way down though, the $1.2054 to $1.2000 area, which should act as short-term support at least, but once breached should act as strong resistance instead.

To sum up, sell into any short-term euro strength as it is unlikely to last and since the initial risk is small compared with the potential profits if the currency pair falls below the $1.19 area as I expect it will soon..

The euro was trading at $1.2138 at 0800 GMT Monday.

For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Telerate, pages 4209,1108,4210,1105,5041,4142; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "European Technicals"

-By Axel Rudolph; +44 20 8781-1078; rudolphpens.at

Axel Rudolph, MSTA, is a director of Pens Investment Management GmbH which is an independent adviser which consults for mutual fund PENS Absolute. Pens advises the fund's managers on the purchase and sale of securities.

Data provided by CQG International Ltd.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 05, 2004 05:16 ET (09:16 GMT)

Timbbbeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

:o))

Its that 1.8165 level that needs to be broken..

Then smooth sailing to 1.8000

reckon thats the cable low and the euro for a little while anyway...

edit... or not !!

though trend is clearly down

All we need is a little good us data at 16:00 (EDIT:- Meant 15:00) and another 100pips down to 18000

The ISM services index for March was 65.8 versus 60.8 in February and above forecasts of 61.

The highest forcast was 65.3. It was 0.3 above that

Too much muttering about MPC rate rise, so watch out.

Derek,

Talk of MPC rate rise will push the $ up and Cable lower.

not if it's 1/2%

Sorry Beebs,

Mental block. I meant to say $ down and Cable higher. Blame it on Monday.

:o)

edit: There's further mileage on the short side yet, imo. Give it another day or two.

i'll forgive you
xxx

i'm not in the 1/2% camp,
but they know they've got to act now
to try to stop meltdown in property mkt


pretty sure we'll get 1/4%, which i would agree is priced in to cable.
might knock the ftse a bit.

Hils: Thanks for the correction, I was very worried about you for a moment . . . and maybe it is all priced in, but that doesn't seem to be reflected in the price (if you see what I mean). Why isn't it meandering around 18800 instead of 18157?

Derek,

The markets are always priced to the future. Whilst of late they've been pricing in MPC rate rises to drive Cable higher, you're also now starting to see the prospect of Fed rate rises being reflected in the price.

Everything is within the chart and it's relatively easy to "fit" the news to what the chart is already saying.

Ah yes, I did wonder if the Fed was having an effect.

Thank you for improving my FX education.

Hope you're all out of those shorts guys.

Yep. Stopped out during the course of yesterday. Do you reckon it's time to be long or wait and see?

Doug

Doug,

For the first time in some time, I'm not really sure which side of the market you should be atm.

You're probably still safe being short the EUR/USD for the time being. Cable, I'm actually long atm but not 100% comfortable. I'm going to give it a bit longer.