hunter
Don't get too excited. They can always recover some, if not all, of the energy price increases by adjustment of prices. Also, all of their competitors will be suffering from the same effects so it should have little impact on the overall market for their products. In fact, since Dyson have a good product range addressing the alternative energy market, they might even benefit in some small way.
30p drop seems an over-reaction to me so there may be a correction on Tuesday. Of course you may be quite right but it would be too much of a gamble for me.
hunter: I attended yesterday's AGM and have followed this company fairly closely for some years. If you don't mind hearing an alternative opinion, I think there are profit warnings and profit warnings. One is where the directors are guilty of poor judgement and the other is where future profits will be influenced from events way beyond the control of the directors.
This company has divisions which will produce excellent figures, Ecoflex for example. But a short history demonstrates that only 2.5 years ago, DYS were paying 12p per therm for their energy. They are currently on fixed contracts until October at 34p per therm and when they issued the annual results, they were basing their forward figures on the then current price of some 54p per therm. Now prices are between 70p and 80p per therm and they could hardly ignore the issue. Ive noted down that we are 5 months into the current financial year, year end being 31 March 2005, and obviously such a large hike in their energy costs will have an impact on the figures. However, a statement of the screamingly obvious is that the directors cannot control world energy prices and they have been aware of the issue and are developing strategies to ameliorate the effects of the price rises.
Several other companies will be making similar statements in the coming months. Here, the DYS directors were adopting best practice and getting the facts out in the open at the first opportunity.
The company is still highly rated in PE terms. This is because the market believes it has an excellent pipeline of products in the near, medium and long term. I think the Report and Accounts (approved by shareholders yesterday) demonstrates this and I hope it's something you will have digested before making your target price quite so low.
I note you refer to seeing several downgrades. Could you please let me know where these can be found as I'd love to check them out? Thank you and good luck with whatever you decide to do.