Read the latest interims.......just make sure that you are sitting down.

was always going to wait until after the results and agree with your prognosis

rumours of new mega contracts to be announced with or just after the results-hence the financing to enable the expansion to take place. also first quarter figures very soon after and a possible listing on nasdaq early 2008. This is all on the other side and if..if it comes about the sp should rocket again. I'm an optimist and happy to hold.

hlyeo

I happen to have been out all day, speechless? No. Ignorant? No; only the ignorant resort to petty insults. HaHaHa? Err is that a reasoned response from an adult or did you just get home from school? Oh and when I want a personal email from you, I will let you know, ok?

Anyway, back to SOLA.

Due to my absence from the homestead today, you will be disappointed to learn that the intended short position was not opened, although I did initially leave Sell Orders with my Broker last night. Fortunately I cancelled them first thing this morning due to my little outing.

It is obvious that the 500 resistance level has been breached and this level should now provide support for further rises, err, I did say that in one of my previous posts, I am also quite happy to admit that I was wrong to say this was a short from 500p, reality has proven otherwise.

On the other hand I haven't changed my opinion. I don't often read the trash on ADVFN, but if the rampers are out in force (see MP post) be very careful. The volumes accompanying this latest rise are quite small in comparison to the leap in December. Another reason to be cautious.

What about the convertible bond issue? 10.5M shares at 5.88. If you held these bonds would you want to wait until 2012 before converting them to shares? I wouldn't, I have already lent the money, I want it back, they only attract 1% interest per annum. At least when they are converted, the lender can do what they want with the shares. Once the bonds have been converted there will be an automatic dilution of the shares by approx 10%, although I doubt the mathematics will be so precise.

The 500p level has gone, it's rising dramatically on low volumes and with the bond issue in mind I would now expect the SP to continue to rise until the 5.88 level is also breached. The bonds will be converted and 10.5 million shares may well be trickled into the market driving the SP down.

Something I hadn't noticed before, which I must admit would have made me take an operational pause is the gapped candle towards the end of February; gaps are nearly always filled and spookily enough the top of this one is at 575p, another reason to believe the SP is on the rise. Incidentally there are also smaller gaps at the beginning of December and these should also be eventually filled, but this time on the way back down.

In summary, the rise in the SP has forced me to alter my opinion, nothing stays the same and scenarios must always be updated. In the short term I expect the SP to rise in order to allow the bonds to be converted. I would also expect that level to be achieved next week. Objective achieved, bonds converted. Then the Results, RSI will be overbought, there will still be negative divergence on the MACD and all the mug punters will have been sucked in during the rise and offload in panic when the Markets are unimpressed with the Results.

Time will tell. Personally I don't give a fcuk, I don't have a position (unlike some we know who bought at 6) :)

pth

gf

No, the delay in results doesn't really change my TA analysis, except to say it's gonna be an odd H&S pattern if it happens, but then you quite often have to look hard and use some imagination, they rarely look like a text book example.

pth

I'm not ramping just providing a counter balance -everyone should do their own of course but more detailed research appears on the other side---some of it agreeing with pth also.

mp

Opinion is what makes the market, if we all agreed, nothing would be sold or bought. Unlike some (most?) who post on BBs, I have given an opinion in advance and will be hoist (or not) by my own petard. Nobody gets it right all the time, personally I would be happy to get it right just some of the time, but this isn't done and dusted yet, not by a long chalk. When it gets above 6.50, I'll fold my tent and walk away. Until then I have a right to my opinion and will continue to pontificate in a (hopefully) reasoned manner.

pth

Thanks for that PTH.

I like to see a balanced view like you give out.

Cynic also does similar.

Theres just too many these days who think theres only one one way and thats upwards.

I sincerely hope that the holders here are proved right on results day. Too many think you are trying to deramp just because you have a difference of opinion on a red hot share thats in the investors/traders spot light most of the time.

Its obviously going to attract attention perhaphs like WNG were I have publicly displayed that I have sold 95% of my holding because I feel very nervous about its high, too high P/E ratio.

If it can enhance earnings going forward fair enough and the same goes for sola.

Good luck everyone.

to save you all hunting ..... sp has now fallen back, perhaps just on simple profit-taking because the more prudent feel matters have got ahead of themselves ..... an interesting time to watch ...... will sp continue to backtrack to (say) 25 dma or will in now bounce off 50 dma? ..... my advice (which we all know is worth bugger all) is to bank some profit and certainly not to buy until after the results





red = 25 dma
green = 50 dma

Bounce off 50 dma with no problem at all. See further rise.

quite right .... a very healthy move

552p now...r u in, cynic?

nope .... trying to avoid being sucked in by greed ..... have a pretty full portfolio at the mo anyway and as previpously stated, want to see what the results and trading statement have to say, or more importantly to see their effect on sp ..... my guess is that sp has now got ahead of itself, so short of anything truly stellar, it is more likely that sp will drop back, perhaps sharply and albeit temporarily.

gf

Thanks for the rational comment!

I don't think there was much of a bounce from negative territory early this morning, when I looked before 0845, hardly any stock had been traded and the mark down appeared more a reflection of the orders on the book and rather crap spread than for any other reason.

I'm quite looking forward to seeing if it does hit the convertible bond figure of 5.88 this week and also with what buying impetus and volume.

Cynic, I think you are spot on, this stock is far too volatile at the moment to take a position; personally I feel if it does reach 6 this week, there are still some good reasons to look at a short position, even if there are bullish headline news in the Results. How many times do we hear PIs bemoaning the release of good news linked with a smart drop in the SP? Seems there is either buying on rumour or the SP is being walked up, perhaps both (cynical sod that I am). Buy on rumour, sell on fact is an adage that often seems to work, otherwise it wouldn't be an adage.

pth

or if you are a Bear a shortage may make better sense than an adage (groan, groan, groan!)

imo forget the companys' fundamental for the minute have a look at the charts, from my understanding if MACD crossover soildly with small moving averages crossing the long moving average I see this as confirmed to buy, in which it has with considerable volume, the bull run has been confirmed. If I were shorting I would wait until RSI has peaked in this case it has not, far from it acutally only just started!

SOLA will continue to rage on upwards. 600p soon.

that's not far away, but then what?

I'm with PTH at the moment. I want to believe the only way is up, but am unhappy with the volatility. Strange - normally I'm really bullish, but at the moment I'm just nervous about this one. Will probably be proved wrong, but never mind . . .

MACD has crossed over, but still in negative territory, centreline crossover may be the real indicator. RSI only just started? Only 10% to go before in overbought territory. Should all coincide with Friday and a rise to 5.88. Then the real fun starts ;)

ptholden, the bull run often starts when MACD is in the negative terrority, RSI can go beyond the 70% mark as history shows this has peaked around 90% (before last xmas). I liked the fact the little tree shake this morning revealed strong recovery in sp is at the moment.