NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.

They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.

does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??

Good post Eric, hopefully the more "negative" posters on here may take a read and reconsider their stance.

..
By gum! Come for an update and pages to wade through! A bit like the alluvial gravel but very few diamonds in there! Actually there was the odd nugget! Particularly appreciated Wendy's posts 768 and 775. Also, generally more aware of the history which helps to explain that the city is less than convinced about NML. Funnily enough, the other positive posts were from anomelette including his eggstatic response: there ought to be a qualifier for any post that something humourous is said!

First helpful post was the projected spreadsheet (post 703). You can see from this that it is no disaster if the mining rate drops because of the rainy season: presumably costs drop as well and there is still a good surplus on the project.

The other positive input was the reproduction of the geological analysis from the other sites. This quoted a total potential of $284m with probability rates of 0.4 (for $200m) and 20% for the remainder. You could argue that this gives a weighted figure of $97.3m but the city is not going to wear that. So I have gone back to the reserves report which states:

"The Rio Lapi Garimpo reserves have been investigated in detail and are considered proven. Upside potential is derived from Rio Lapi Targets A-E with an inferred Resource of 3,790,080 carats. These will be mined during a period of increased production and will therefore yield the highest profit of US$124 per carat. If this profitability level were maintained, the above indicated resource would yield a pre tax profit in excess of US$ 500 million. It is reasonable to assume that the exploration and exploitation of the inferred reserves carries some commercial and technical risk and the above resource and value will not be achieved. However, based on the history, local knowledge and the geology of the area, there is a reasonable expectation of at least 40% success and an expected value of US$ 200 million."

So the $200m is AFTER applying the 40% factor. It is not a weighting of whether anything is recovered at all but AFTER appplying commercial and technical risk. The geologist's report is evidently stating that there will be on-going recovery: not necessarily at the same profit level but with much higher gross revenues.

Anonymous reminds me of Insiderinside from the SEO thread in terms of posts which are excessively one-sided and unbalanced. Perhaps I can have a balanced response to this geological analysis without, PLEASE, regurgitating any of the old stuff ad nauseam. As SD, I have an exploratory stake in this company, primarily based on the evident quality of the geological analysis: I hope this thread can give balanced views so that we can weigh the current position and, hopefully, one day weigh the diamonds!
..

EWRobson -

At last, someone who understands the concept of risk weighting of exploration/mining projects!

cometh the risk, cometh the understanding

For some, stockdog, for some.

Others would prefer to insinuate that the risking means only a 20% or 40% chance of diamonds.

Wendy: obviously a bird of similar feather! First, risk is a 'good thing'. If the future was certain for a share then there would not be differing opinions, the value would be clear-cut and there would be no market. Second, understanding risk may not be a pre-requisite for many investors who are prepared to follow the advice of others. But it is sad when someone sets himself up as an authority, making categorical negative statements, when he has plainly failed to understand the relatively minor risk represented by his negative prognosis on the financial forecasts and, more seriously, failed to appreciate the fundamentals of geological projections. This is the bloke who makes a hobby out of complaints to the FSA and AIM regulators causing potential damage to the holdings of investors in this company. We can do without him.

Eric

I second that,.EWRobson...I don't mind opposite opinion, but I hate misrepresentation and character assassination of directors.

Still here watching and waiting SD and Eric. I haven't said much as there isn't much to say at the mo. I don't see the point in moaning and slagging everyone off.

The management of NML may not be the best in the world at keeping the shareholder informed but that does not mean nothing is happening. Don't forget to build the mine and get the equipment in place they had to build 80km of road; a huge feat. The first we heard of it was after the event.

Last week everyone was lagging off GFM and it was all doom and gloom. Yesterday the mine started full production and the price has risen more than 5p since the middle of last week. Now the scaremongers had moved on to the next share.

Everyone thought I was crazy buying SEO at 4p with the ongoing court battle with BPRG. The derampers and scaremongers were out in force. However, like NML the potential was there as well as the risk. If you don't want risk stick your money in the building society. If you want to make some real money you have to take risks. NML is worth the risk; especially as SD is still waiting for his diamond collar
:-)Di

Good posts Eric,
But be prepared for pages of recycled drivel from Anom.
He has spent the last 12 months, continually, posting negative, misleading,
and sometimes, complete lies about nml.
A strange hobby!
Anyway, I have the "Knobhead" filtered, so a more balanced thread is
presented.

Well the only post of interest on the other side today is Eric's post someone copied over there.

On ADVFN NML thread there is also a sweepstake to guess the biggest diamond...interestingly Anom who spends his time bashing this stock (and admits to enjoying it) is the person who lists the biggest diamond will be 65cts!! Anom heads the sweepstake and Andy is bottom with 7 cts. So according to Anom this is a crap stock but NML is going to find diamonds as big as 65cts
:-)

Dynamite,

I am normally bottom in thses sweepstakes as holders are invariably overconfident on price (this time carat size) and I frequently win!

I should add that I doubt I will win this time, they will probably find a much bigger one, but the picure they showed recently didn't have any enormous ones, so you never know!

With regard to Anom's position, even if they do find the odd large stone, (and most miners do), the main issue is whether they can consistently mine 10,000 carats oper month, THROUGHOUT THE YEAR, or an AVERAGE of 10,000 carats per month, utilising the good weather to exceed production to allow for less in the inclement months.

The next RNS will be interesting! (IMO)

Very true Andy...but no one knows and only time will tell whether NML can be consistent. However, in the past NML have been quietly working away in the background and when RNSs have come out it has become apparent that a huge amount of work has been done...such as building 80kms of road.
My point over Anom is that he spouts doom and gloom over NML and admits to enjoying it! A few 65 ct diamonds would be nice as well as the normal small ones.
Di

I wonder where Anom and Briefs are today.?

Playing in their sandpits, dreaming up new and exciting ways to deramp NML?

Anom has his signing on day at DSS and said he is out for the day!! Well that's the rumour!!

They already found stones of 19carat and 11carat

I know but that waas ages ago in exploration...it is what they have found in actual mining we are waiting for.

Dynamite - don't want any of Andy's small ones in the collar thanks. Let's say 20ct minimum - think that's fair, don't you?

sd

SD you can have 20carats but they will be the sort that rabbits eat! How many shares do you think I have in NML?? They would need to go to about 30 before I put 20cts in your collar. Even then I don't know how much a 20ct diamond is worth...I'm still a poor little mouse waitoing for this bugger to go up!

Well it was worth a try, but your obviously to shrew-d a mouse to be fooled by me.

Nice to have fame at last - what, posted on ADTVN. The interesting thing is that I was merely drawing attention to the geologists report. If this has not been read or not been understood, it points to the interesting conclusion that NML has been underrated. The geologists are clearly respected and tehir report comes over as very professional. The fact is that NML are sitting on a veritable gold mine - oh, sorry, diamond deposits! If there had not been the negative history behind the company, the sp would be related to the npv of the weighted probability of these projections; a figure I suspect is about 50m (after other holdings).

Let me put this another way. A reaasonable assumption, made by anom. amongst others, is that a probability of 40% on $200m is less than 50% and therefore more likely to be zero than one. That is how I would treat a sales forecast, for instance. But, to repeat the key point that needs to be grasped by investors and potential investors, is that the 40% has already been applied to a forecast potential of $500m to arrive at the $200m. The 40% represents technical and commercial risk or, in other words, a 40% recovery and realisation rate. The upside potential of this share is thus far greater than generally recognised. I am with di, I normally am (or wish I was!), in being thoroughly relaxed about holding for the ride: the downside is pretty negligible; the upside is mega (I wonder how it compares with FDI, EPD for instance, which have caps of many multiples in relation to NML).

Eric