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ASOS: BUY AT LOW PRICE!!!! (ASC)     

wilco99 - 12 Sep 2003 15:52

ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!


Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=ASC&Si

johngtudor - 07 Dec 2004 10:15 - 876 of 5941

Eric: Re MPH, let me add to my statement, I look for at least a 3:1 ratio, so if your calculations suggest a better risk/reward then so much the better. The charts suggest it may find a support level at 26p'ish, but I would want to wait for a number of charting signals to go positive before I would enter a trade..this I think increases the chances of getting a positive trade. After all there is nothing worse than entering a trade only to see it fall, regardless of the fundamentals. I only trade what I see, as against what I might expect to happen. Still that is just my approach after going through a lot of trading pain in previous times!!

Re Books, I think 'The Intelligent Investor' is a great read, and you should take it with you to Whistler, especially as it is not too heavy! You may also want to read 'The Midas Touch' by John Train if you do not already have it. I recall it saying how useless TA is! Re TA Books I suppose everyone has their own favourites, but the ones I turn too more often than not are 'Technical Analysis of Stock Trends' by Edwards and Magee. Another volume (bought it several years ago) I enjoyed especially for the detailed probability section is 'The Encyclopaedia of Chart Patterns' by Thomas Bulkowski. After reading Tom you will start searching for all sorts of patterns!! I have the books suggested by SEADOG and they are good as well, so I am just adding to the list really. I think John's book is really good if you trade Commodities as I do. Now these latter books are heavy so you may need to leave them behind for your trip.

Now as for ASOS I think some recent media coverage about Xmas Internet shopping being so successful this year will work through into the SP soon, and we may start moving towards another BUY signal soon!

Enjoy the day...John

dawsinho - 07 Dec 2004 10:49 - 877 of 5941

Eric,

Still backing MPH, although i must admit to taking some profits last week! Feel the sp will rebound at some point and start motoring back towards the 30p mark, problem being is all the negative sentiment around the stock at the mo, think a lot of confidence in the company was lost last week after the RNS.

The price has drifted from the mid thirty's and the charts don't look very encouraging admittedly, imho this is due to the fraud deal and the volatility of the sp in the short term. The RSI is looking weak and until some news is released regarding future acquisitions etc feel its a case of sit on your hands and wait!

It was only a month ago that mph revealed a great set of results and future growth of the company looks strong, should imagine this will be on everybodys watch list and when the sp gets going again theyll be a lot of punters jumping back on board..

Hope Im right!

SEADOG - 07 Dec 2004 12:37 - 878 of 5941

dawsinho:
Noted that 1 Director bought 50k of shares in MPH on 1st Dec at 29p.

dawsinho - 07 Dec 2004 13:04 - 879 of 5941

Seadog,

From the rns:

"Michael Morris acquired 75,000 Shares on 30 November 2004 for a consideration of
27.5 pence per share and a further 100,000 Shares on 1 December 2004 for a
consideration of 29 pence per share"

In the last month we've had four rns, Great results, directors buying, new stores and a spat with boateng. Can't help this fall is well overdone. If you look at this company and imagine where it should be in one year, think the current price is a steal... Any other thoughts would be well recieved?

EWRobson - 07 Dec 2004 13:52 - 880 of 5941

John, dawsinho, SEADOG

Good to see ASC back over 80p. This is the third time that we appear to have the inverse trading pattern to that I identified early last week when the price was falling; i.e. initial rise, subsequently selling dominating but price staying up. I say 'apparently' because I think the 100K trade sell will be a buy and the 50K ? will also be a buy.

Agree dawsinho re MPH. Must be near bottom so have decided its time to strike. FHNWFL principle (clue: seduction technique!).

Thanks for book advice - just going on to Amazon.

John: Having problems with Blue Index. Whatever I say about striking best price, they inevitably trade at upper limit of spread! Advice please, MG (my guru!).

Eric

johngtudor - 07 Dec 2004 14:24 - 881 of 5941

Eric: Have you told BI (Blue Index) that you are not happy with the prices. You should tell then that you are watching the prices on-line and feel you are not being given a fair deal! See what they say and you can then see how you feel. Remember in all this that you might also want them on your side when market events suddenly take a dramatic turn, and you have an open position!

John

EWRobson - 07 Dec 2004 17:42 - 882 of 5941

John

Have told them that, thanks - and apologised for getting cross!

legend

Fantastic show with BNH. Definite danger of you breaking the winner's tape first! ASC doing well but, whilst a throughbred, it is bred to stay rather than win a sprint!

Eric

dawsinho - 07 Dec 2004 19:20 - 883 of 5941

Eric,

FHNWFL principle.... you'll have to help me on this one, don't have a clue!? Good luck with the holding. Sp has took a beating over the past month or so, lets hope we get some news regarding the fraud deal etc soon.

EWRobson - 07 Dec 2004 23:46 - 884 of 5941

dawsinho

Faint heart.... lol. Fundamentals fine, so over-sold means opportunity. As you have taken profits, you could win twice by buying in again.

Eric

dawsinho - 08 Dec 2004 13:11 - 885 of 5941

Eric,

Going to watch and wait, feel confident the sp will recover. Just finding it hard to understand why the big drop! Think the lemming effect has taken over a little!

Happy hunting

abe_levy - 08 Dec 2004 13:15 - 886 of 5941

dawsinho,

'The big drop' in my opinion was only the traders taking a tidy profit. and why not, the share had shot up. I personally saw it as a buying opportunity. Bought in at 72.5. So its looking quite good unitl Christmas - where I think it will pass its high and go towards or near the 1.00.

dawsinho - 08 Dec 2004 13:39 - 887 of 5941

abe_levy,

Was refering to MPH...! lol
Very happy with ASC, i'm long this one. Will be holding tight unless we have some bad news etc! Think the one pound barrier will come around Jan time coupled with a nice trading update.

EWRobson - 08 Dec 2004 16:16 - 888 of 5941

abe_levy

dawsinho and I had shot off at a tangent as MPH, a member of the ASOS Challenge Portfolio, had fallen back significantly after good results. I was exploring opinions re taking out a cfd because fall clearly overdone. johngtudor, our leading guru (got to keep him happy!) gave as a criteria a 3:1 ratio of upside to downside. My calculations said 5:1 so I have a nice little position.

The main point of dicussion re ASOS is whether it will hit 1 before Xmas or in the New Year. Being a cautious sort of bloke (what's that lol noise, I hear?) I am going for a trading update slipping out in the New Year. Also there will be publicity for launch of Miss Sixty range. Should be way ahead by time of results with launch, also, of own label with potential for improved margins.

Eric

abe_levy - 08 Dec 2004 18:49 - 889 of 5941

EWRobinson

I thought that CFDs were only traded on larger companies. Can you trade CFD's on companies such as ASC or MPH - and if so with whom? Thanks.

EWRobson - 08 Dec 2004 21:22 - 890 of 5941

abe_levy

blue index. Generally, 3:1 multiple on small cap, including AIM. 4:1 on Alizyme (AZM). Still learning how to work with them; you really have to put a limit on the buying price, unlike your broker who you can trust to buy at best (hopefully!). Takes a few days to set up. Don't think I would go smaller than MPH: there needs to be a reasonably free market in the share. It seems to me that MPH is ideal (as ASC) because the next results are pretty well assured as their winter collections are 85% delivered and we are clearly still in a spell of continuous growth and good news flow. Look at discussion in earlier posts, particularly johngtudor.

Eric

abe_levy - 09 Dec 2004 08:29 - 891 of 5941

EWRobson.

Thanks. I am going to look into MPH.

EWRobson - 09 Dec 2004 17:31 - 892 of 5941

John

How are the ASC charts looking to you - look fine to me! Just tucking into Technical Analysis plain and simple (Kahn, pub. FT); but a little knowledge ...!

Eric

johngtudor - 09 Dec 2004 17:47 - 893 of 5941

Eric: I do hope you are reading Kahn with a glass or two of fine wine near by...you might need it!! Seriously, tomorrow will be an important day for holders of ASC stock (end of week close value in particular) as the recent high price on the bar chart did not exceed the previous high, and so we might see another small pullback yet before the big push to establish a new high! Still, in terms of the bigger picture we are still in the uptrend, and for all those of us who bought in at the lower levels, sitting comfortably on large profits.

John

EWRobson - 09 Dec 2004 18:11 - 894 of 5941

John

Kahn will wile the time away on the flight to Vancouver next week, no doubt with a decent wine as it is KLM (unless the combination puts me to sleep). Looks to be just right with good definitions and examples. Great ASC profits already but I am tending to treat the cfd adventure separately; not quite in profit yet but then its away! Don't really see yesterday's close as a high - ASC seems to trade in a 10p range and then move on to the next band: last week was 70s, this week, 80s; fully expect 90s next week, perhaps through Xmas, and 1 in the New Year. Just buying volume really as not expecting news this month. Why 'end of week'? Or is it established that the EOW trend is a reliable indicator, possibly taking into account week-long trading positions?

There's a question for you on the MPH column re 'head and shoulders'!

Eric

EWRobson - 10 Dec 2004 18:56 - 895 of 5941

ASOS Challenge Portfolio

A relatively quiet week with a general easing in prices. Everybody too busy doing Chrimpens shopping; fortunately our ASC girls are doing all their buying at home (or office) on the Internet! Short report today as I have the Income Tax to complete before going off on hols on Wednesday.

company_________ EPIC pp(p)_ issue(m) shares price_ value_ cap(m) gain % gain wk

Broker Network H BNH_ 77.5__ 15.065__ 6450__ 118.50 7643.3 17.85_ 52.90_ 0.00
ASOS____________ ASC_ 56____ 67.97___ 8900__ 83.50_ 7431.5 56.75_ 49.11_ 9.15
Stanelco________ SEO_ 4.5___ 782.225_ 111000 5.50__ 6105.0 43.0__ 22.22_ -6.46
Yoomedia________ YOO_ 22____ 163.313_ 22700_ 20.75_ 4710.3 33.89_ -5.68_ 0.00
Civilian Content CCN_ 16.25_ 41.883__ 30700_ 14.50_ 4451.5 6.07__ -10.77 -9.38
Sterling Energy_ SEY_ 17.25_ 822.712_ 29000_ 15.25_ 4422.5 125.46 -11.59 -1.61
Marchpole Hold._ MPH_ 33.75_ 120.455_ 14800_ 28.50_ 4218.0 34.33_ -15.56 5.56
Petrel Resources PET_ 124.5_ 58.625__ 4000__ 100.00 4000.0 58.63_ -19.68 -2.44
CFA Capital Gp__ CFP_ 0.7___ 619_____ 714000 0.55__ 3927.0 3.40__ -21.43 0.00
cybit holdings__ CYH_ 1.82__ 988.952_ 275000 1.40__ 3850.0 13.85_ -23.08 -3.45
Petroceltic Int. PCI_ 15____ 484.975_ 33300_ 10.00_ 3330.0 48.50_ -33.33 2.56

total______________________________________________ 54089.0______ -1.66_ -0.49

Smallcap index______________________________2696.30 57114.0______ 3.84__ 0.05

3 well up! 8 down! So portfolio is not looking very clever at the moment. However, one thing you can say is that it is not a dull portfolio; not one to put under the mattress and forget about. My somewhat closer view last week certainly pointed to a lot of potential and the lower prices give a buying opportunity in a number of the shares. At the beginning of the week I mooted taking a cfd in MPH or CYH. johngtudor gave his guiding rule of a 3:1 upside to downside - you clearly also need a reasonably sized market and MPH scored on that front too. It has been a good choice as the share is now clearly on an uptrend.

As I pointed out last week, CYH price is held down by their conservative accounting principles; but these will be boosting the price in two or three years time as the carried forward revenue increases. CFP is, to some extent, in the same boat; no credit being given to work in progress. CCN is another share which has been quietly drifting with no news. YOO is in another vacuum until the EGM on 20th December to approve the acquisitions, share issue and restructuring. A strong statement is then expected from Evolution which could mean a strong forward movement, despite the increase in share cap. to 450M. Yours Truly had another letter in Shares on behalf of the bb, taking up the issue of share options to the Directors whilst current holders lose out.

BNH still leads the way although well back from the mid-week peak. ASC is consolidating in the 80s before a likely push over the seasonal season for pundits; so much that is positive in the pipeline. SEO is particularly interesting at the moment. A 10M investment of funds and an indication of good contract news is not currently off-setting the on-going litigation; as with MPH this could give a good buying opportunity.

So that leaves us with the oils! There are now smoke signals coming from the Middle East! Strangely enough from Jordan, where one of their Ministers is reported to have spoken of the allocation of drilling rights to PET. The area concerned is part of the same geological system as Block 6 in western Iraq where PET's rights were suspended during the war. A fascinating article in the Irish Independent appeared to leak details of the contract bids for the two northern fields which are awaiting decisions. It all looks very positive; a last chance to buy in? Don't say you weren't warned!

Poor old PCI is still languishing in the wake of the aborted drill in Tunisia; I suspect they will have the last laugh but not perhaps for a while. SEY is amongst the oil stocks affected by the oil price fall and lack of positive drilling news.

With Jordan jumping the gun it seems quite likely that we will see a PET announcement this week - the drinks will be on Sandra, or perhaps a party!

Eric

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