The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

The 3rd positive e-mail posted over the other side, shows pet are back to being as helpful as possible, without breaking any promises or laws, really looks more and more like WHEN not if!!!

----- Original Message -----
From: David Horgan
To: ************
Sent: 29 October 2004 10:36
Subject: RE: Petrel Resources


The Ministry's comments are self-evident. It is better that they speak than we. Iraq To Sign 2 Oil Deals With Intl Cos Next Mo - Official

David Horgan



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: *******/[*******@hotmail.com]
Sent: 28 October 2004 16:18
To: David Horgan; petrel@iol.ie
Subject: Re: Petrel Resources


Dear Mr Horgan

Please could you comment on the following article as it is in the public domain



274 words
28 October 2004
13:32
Dow Jones Emerging Markets Report
English
(c) 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

BAGHDAD (Dow Jones)--Iraq will sign oil contracts with international companies next month for the development of two oil fields, a senior Iraqi oil official said Thursday.

Head of the State Company for Oil Projects, Ahmed al-Shammaa, said two upstream contracts for the development of the Khormala Dome, in northern Iraq near Kirkuk, and Hemrin, northeast of Baghdad, were discussed in Amman this week with international energy firms.

"In light of these discussions, companies will submit new offers concerning the development of the two fields and we are expected to sign contracts next month," al-Shammaa told Dow Jones Newswires.

Al-Shammaa, who headed Iraq's negotiating team in Jordan, declined to name the companies involved in the talks.

Irish independent Petrel Resources (PET.LN) is known to be one of the companies bidding for the contracts.

Last week, Iraq's Oil Minister Thamer al-Ghadhban said the two contracts would be ready to sign soon.

He said a third upstream contract for Subba & Luhais in southern Iraq has been delayed as the technical and economic aspects of the deals weren't yet ready.

Production from all these fields is expected to reach 300,000-350,000 barrels a day within two years from the start of development.

Oil ministry officials have estimated investment needed in the fields will amount to around $500 million to $600 million.

Last year, Ghadhban said the ministry would start to develop these fields this year.


-By Hassan Hafidh; Dow Jones Newswires; +964 7901 912 214; hafidh8@hotmail.com

there is a pause now! seems all are awaiting an RNS or something. Very low volume again so far

Afternoon all,
Bloody hell Tokyo,you`ve been putting yourself about !!,great work and good posts though.I must admit when i first saw that about resubmitting offers i was worried and did`nt know what to make of them,but, like you, i do lean to the contracts being risk sharing. Remember a "spokesman" did say that PET had no competitors for at least one of the contracts, and no other co. has been named for quite a while, not even on the grapevine.

I checked on Sonorans website today and there is no mention of oilfield tenders since 27th May 2004, so they definitely are out of the picture, you only have to look at the sp since the start of the year $3.60 down to $0.65 (as Milldog pointed out, might be worth keeping an eye on to invest some of our PET profits!).

107606,sorry to hear about your job situation, i know this is dragging on a bit, just keep your nerve and IMHO you will be laughing all tha way to the bank!, did you say that you are from sunny Norfolk?. Glad to see you`ve posted again Wilbs, how are the nerves?.

I e-mailed PET some while back about their work in Sudan and was told that at present they are not carry out any work there, due to the humanitarian crisis out there. If you read my post yesterday re. China imports about 5%( i think) from Sudan, when all is well there and sanctions etc are no longer a problem, PET could be onto another winner!.

have a good weekend one and all,

Dexter

Thanks dexter. I read every post on this BB and used to on the iii and advfn BB's but they both seem to just want to attack each other with insults(i would of stayed married if i wanted to be insulted) and not stick to the reason why we all are here. I don't post much as I can no way keep up with Tokyo, yourself and a few others. The nerves are only just holding up. Lets hope we have some good news soon.


wilbs

Tokyo

Brilliant stuff! Worth stuffing a few more shares under the mattress. I believe we know enough, all in the public domain, and can play it quietly from here on. Consistent readers of this bb will get the message and know what to do. Others can fret. Lots of work to be done on the contracts and making sure everyone is happy. Don't want the CIA to blow a hole in it all - literally! Being a new boy on the block, may I say that this shows the ultimate value of a good bb, well conducted. The only one to compete is that of ASC: take a look; PET is likely winner, in my view, in the ASC Competition to double value but ASC is a sure fire, negligible risk, doubler within six months! Thanks again.

Eric

Reading this BB back over agin reminded me of the halcyon days of the dot coms...before the crash that is....shares held up on nothing but speculation of future growth and no robust financials whatsoever. I hold a lot of these so don't want to rain on the parade but I think we should be less bullish and more realistic about the real growth opprtunity here. The more balanced opinions (and their posters) who dare to introduce a less than favourable perspective are consistently rubbished as "de-rampers" ...the reality is we are in a high risk stock with a lot of bumps in the road...many of them behind us now but most of them still ahead.

I realise I'm going to be unpopular but there are still so many ifs and buts ahead and it's going to take several weeks longer to get clarity...if indeed we do even get an RNS even in November, given that there is still much to be agreed with the Iraqi Ministry (could easily push back further and I would bet on a further delay for second phase due dilligence)... as we've all said before don't put a penny more on PET than you can afford to lose. We can all do very nicely if things go well but no guarantees and we're no longer in an advantaged position re the sp(e.g. everyone and their great aunt is now aware of PET). Anyone getting in now at anything above 100p needs to be careful as I would be counsel prudence. Also I'd have a healthy cynicism of the blarney from DH (or his many aliases qouted on these pages)...I'm half Irish myself so I know what my compatriots are capable of! Good luck to all PET investors.

joehargan1

You may only be half irish but that's better than being all/not-at-all irish (delete whichever seems appropraite to the reader!) My wife is all Irish given that both her parents were Irish but, since she was born in England and doesn't have an Irish accent, she claims to be all English. I confess to really loving my mother-in-law who had all the blarney in the world!

However, the point is your contribution whilst Tokyo is asleep and everyone else is having a night out so I am left holding the fort. My points are: (1) compared to a number of other threads which are either inane, off-the-point or whistling to keep their spirits up, I have found this thread balanced, insightful and informative; (2) your point about the value of PET stands or falls against the cap. of 60m: if the Iraqi contract(s) is won then this figure has to be rediculously low; if they are not won or if there is a significant delay the value must be much less than the sister company PRE or a small fraction of the current price; (3) it doesn't appear wise to question the likelihood of the November date given that the source is the Iraqi oil ministry - I have been impressed with the maturity of the interim administration; more so than with the USA bombastic efforts; (4) the comparison with the dot comms appears somewhat fatuous: a lot of money is being made in energy shares; when oil is struck you can compute the value; the dot comms were on a wish and a prayer, the likes of lastminute.com have made it though the bear market but hardly impress; ASC is an example of a new breed internet share which is properly focused and shrewdly managed. I hope these comments may leave you feeling taken seriously although they refute your attitude.

All the best, Eric

Very nicely put Eric, thanks for humouring me and all your points are impeccable and intelligent arguments...I buy all that you say and of course the dotcom point was a bit tongue in cheek as the mkt cap. value (if realised) will be real and immediate. The key word here being if. You are also right in that the quality of insights and research shown here is remarkably good..much better that the usual and I'm truly impressed with the quality of the posts and perspectives esp Tokya, Dexter and the other usual suspects (outstanding work). I'll even buy some of the verbatim quoted Horgan/PET emails that were a feature of early posts when only a few of us were posting here...I'll also accept that many are legitimate. My principle concern is that anyone new to this game might get carried away and risk their shirt on PET....look at the Ramco experience, different in some respects I know but the eggs in one basket...nascent oil company with a streched balance sheet and non-diversified interests...the similarity is worth at least a cursory thought. Thanks for a very balanced posting...I'll now get back to my Guinness to calm my nerves and the Aston Martin catalogue in anticipation of my impending fortune...

joehargan1

Well put and thankyou! Agree the comments re taking care: should carry a Government Health Warning; all at your own risk and not to use money which may be important in your old age, etc. My own holding is 10% of my portfolio and is that part reserved for 'shit or bust', if you will excuse the language. If its bust, you just say, 'oh, well', avoid 'wells' in future and suddenly produce another 10% for another high risk situation - I justify that as being true to myself! Having said that, why not put a wee 10% on them yourself, no! 5%, as you're only half Irish!

Eric

joehargan1

So are you holding anything in PET? I have been in since 50p, and it has been a very bumpy and often tortuous ride. But I agree that it is a very speculative share, with the result being nothing or a very large lump of all! But the news, or substantiated rumour as we will call it until an RNS comes out, is in my opinion positive and getting moreso. But I would also agree that it is far too dangerous to put your house, car and girlfriend (or boyfriend!) on this one is just a little risky. I have enough so that if it goes I will still be able to buy some bread, but so that if it flies I will have enough for a thousand loaves of bread, but not a house and an Aston (or maybe a TVR Griffith in my case, despite now being Russian...). Erring on the side of caution. But hey, if I'm there early enough on that fateful day, a little side bet might be wagered...

Thank you for such a balanced and informed argument, its a relief, nice not to have those that just type SELL SELL SELL over and over again!

Good luck all,

JJ

Some good posts last night, as Per joehargan1's post, I have said throughout this thread that I would not bet any money on this than you can afford to lose, i.e. don't borrow any money to place on this share (or any others for that matter), I'm afriad for all my advice though, my portfolio is highly weighted with PET(oops), I feel that I have done as much research as I can into this one,what little news that has been available recently out of PET has been very positive in my opinion and I feel fairly confident with my decision. I do feel that November is the month that we will hear something from PET about these contracts, remember the first tender was submitted back in April. This is again just my feeling (and of course eternal wish!!), no investment advice is meant by it, there is plently of information for all on this thread for anyone to make up their own mind.(again I agree with you all, it has been very well kept with informative posts from everyone, compared to the other BB's I have seen, although Fillyaboots is quite a good one too)

Good luck all as I think we shall all be smiling one fine day in November, just wish it would hurry up!!!!!


Good luck to all PET holders

Tokyo

Some great posts above and i agree only invest what you can afford to lose. I bought well above 1 so have quite a to lose but know the risks.

Im not in business so do not really have a clue how it works but had a thought (owh!); lets the say its agreed and they now are dotting the i's and crossing the t's. How many peole will know apart from DH. I presume solicitors, secretaries, consultants and advisors would be involved. Knowing human nature would not be impossible to advice family and friends (though illegal i presume) to get in and have punt. Should we be looking for sudden rise in buying. Sorry if i sound a little niave. Perhaps the more informed could enlighten me.

RNS will not be so soon

What makes you say that, hlyeo98?

In Friday's London Evening Standard the Business Section carried an article about Russia's New revolution. A side section entitled 'Oil and Gas is now the talk of the town' stated that Lukoil holds a contract for the West Qurna field in Iraq. It goes onto say that Lukoil holds 8% of its assets overseas and wants to increase that figure to 18% in the next decade.

I am not sure we have fully considered the Russia aspect on this thread. Please enlighten me if I am missing something? Are they a player in these contract discussions?

John

i am interested on the political spin aspect of live, with the awarding of contracts and agreements to mine oil etc etc. i would hazard a guess that there is a great pressure being placed on ministers and politicians alike to not only get things going but create a future based on their old friend oil, and their new found friends. Election round the corner. Whilst we want the RNS, so do the ministry of oil. the russian thing has shed light onto the need to build bridges locally so lets not forget neighbouring ties will be built aswell. once the ministry are in the flow, lets hope PET get a contract to sign. There could be indicactive news from neighbouring countries oil companies being awarded start point contracts.

any commentss marti

I believe Lukoil have a contract in Iraq and they stated they would sue if the contract was broken. I also believe Pet made reference to that statement concerning Block 6. I still hold at Pets high but am concerned at the deferal of the Subba + Luhais contract. I have read the Iraq oil fields have not been updated since the first Iraqi war so there has to be work for small companies whatever that is. I think when I was reading a little of the Haliburton fiasco and their no bid contracts I came across, the Iraqi Oil Ministry would require a minimum of three bids per contract which I believe has been brought up by various writers, which is the part that niggles me. I assume that three tenders were not on the table when the Subba contract was deferred because surely not all 3 would be short of the required info needed by the IOM so would I be overly optimistic to believe Pet had won the contract but had to be tidied up. Conversely have the tenders submitted not been prepared in a professionally detailed manner ie. Are Pet qualified/experienced for the contracts tendered. Are the other tenderers out in Iraq? Its hard to believe from past perfomance of Pet their are no leaks. z

As I reported earlier I sent an e-mail to the author of the Dow Jones/Newswire article
Here is his response -


From : hassan hafidh
Sent : Friday, October 29, 2004 5:58 PM
To : ****************@hotmail.com
Subject : RE: petrel resources and Iraq


I think they are now considering sharing agreements. this has been spelt out by oil minister Thamer al-Ghadhban at a recent news conferene he held in Baghdad. because they don't have enough cash. as you know donors have not yet met their money commitment towards Iraq.


regards

hassan



From: **************************@hotmail.com>
To: hafidh8@hotmail.com
Subject: petrel resources and Iraq
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 13:14:54 +0000

Also do you feel in light of new offers being submitted that the Iraqi oil ministry are now considering risk sharing agreements with Petrel Resources rather than the Cash contracts that were first reported?

thanks for your opinions

------------------------------------------------------------

Anyone seen any Sunday Newspaper reports on Petrel?


Tokyo

Interesting email. I would like hlyo98 to expand upon this post above. Its really not very helpful have have that kind of post without any backup!

107606/Sandrew: I agree, however unless hlyo98 has some insider brief from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil they have already stated that an announcement will be made in November! So what has changed in the last few days?

I have not yet sighted any mention of PET in the Sunday's has anyone else?

What I did read was that OPEC members have not restated their Oil reserves since they all agreed on the level of export quotas some 10 years or so ago. So as we all know that over that time Oil has continued to flow to consumer nations, those reserves must have shrunk. All the more reason to have a sizeable portion of any portfolio in Oil production companies....and in exploration companies like PET and one or two others.