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eur/jpy looking toppy to anyone else?
currently short usd/jpy from lunchtime

It does look toppy, but I'll be surprised if a better window doesn't present itself a bit later on for an opportunity to short it for a big leg down tomorrow. In the meantime I feel it should be played hard and fast both ways.

struggling this afternoon, a nice morning though, think im going to need to look at the shorter timeframes sooner that i thought, but i am getting to grips with it, it certainly beats looking at those stupid annoying bots all day,
currently using cmc on a family members spreadbet account,they shut mine downlast year:-(
will switch over to ib as soon as im comfortable, only messing with small stakes at moment so easier to use cmc for now.

Ruthie - smaller timeframes are essential for those 2 pairs as they move pretty quickly when they finally get going, as Hils says - both ways ;)

Ruth,

You've had the trend as your friend this morning which has made it easy to bang the trades away with your Magic Arrers. That trend now seems to be wanting to reverse, and the balance of probability is that it will range until the new trend takes hold (assuming that it does take hold). That range should still be very much tradeable, but you'll need to use your faster timeframes to capture those moves.

Choccie, agree, will narrow the time frames down tomm , cans see now its got to be played both ways and the 60 min trend it too slow when the market turns, will try the 5 min tomm to determin the trend and see how that works out,
use 1 or 3 min for the entries,enjoyed myself today though, not in a rush though, want to get this right so i dont have to revert back to stocks
i love playing with the backtesting facilities so hopefully i will have a nice little system in pace soon that produces high probabilty trades. trial and error for now ,
catch u all tomm

HIls, yes the arrows were great this morning, been great all morning on the futures too,
i can see im going to like this, wish ide done it sooner:-)

meant to be playing golf down on the coast tomorrow, tempted to cancel as I think couple of fx pairs could be toppy

Only popping in for a mo\' - have to go out soon. Managed 10 points either way on cable using the virtual 1 minute arrers earlier. Now looking at possible resistance @ or around the 20970 mark - interesting \'cos my head tells me that they\'ve got so close to 21000 that it\'s inevitable it\'s gonna power on up through there.

Seeing as I can\'t watch it I\'m not going to place a trade - but still got those shorts to open at my magic numbers 21112 and 21212.

Long cable here from early doors, expecting 2.01 soon....

From Trade The News :

In Currencies, the USD seems to be entering a new phase of \'benign neglect\", the policy under President Jimmy Carter in the mid 1970s. The USD is not discriminating among pairs or regions in which it is making fresh multi-year lows�from Europe to Asia to emerging markets, it is difficult to find a bullish USD market. The US twin deficits of the Current Account and the Trade Balance appear to be the fundamental catalyst for the weak USD tone. The most recent TIC flows were negative for the USD the first time since 1998 and this will have repercussions for the dollar if this outflow of funds is a new theme and underlying trend. If US really faces a funding problem, the long end of the yield curve could come under pressure and would need to rise in order to attract buyers.

The October G7 meeting in Washington seemed to produce the usual commentary regarding currencies, but the current environment of low volatility could vanish if the USD loses some key technical chart points, particularly in the EUR/USD pair. The Euro above 1.45 could be the proverbial \'line in the sand\' for the USD and may provoke coordinated G7 action to counter the looming technical forces that could accelerate the USD\'s decline. Even this quarter�s corporate earnings for US multi-nationals suggested that the weak USD did not greatly aid corporate results as higher commodity costs impacted the operating margins. Thus the central bankers seem to be facing a quandary between printing money to offset subprime impacts and feeding the inflationary flames. A weaker USD at this point may prove more of a thorn and could adversely impact US asset prices.

The USD is approaching a critical juncture, particularly against the Euro. The atmosphere above 1.4700 EUR/USD opens the door for 2.20 technically, particularly on a monthly close basis. The downward spiral of weaker USD, weaker asset prices and higher inflation is problematic for the industrialized world�the G7 may in fact have lost its ability to influence major currencies. For a historical comparison, analysts may look back at 1998, when the USD/JPY pair seemed poised to test 200 level on techicals, but G7 acted in June 1998 to offset such technical damage. The same situation could be now unfolding in the Euro; with EUR/USD above 1.50, G7 members may be poised to intervene again.

**Note the initial prior coordinated G7 interventions usually occur during the NY morning around 7amET (12 GMT) interbank opening. The element of surprise is a central bank\'s best friend. Failed intervention greatly increases the FX volatility.

Chocopops,

I've been tweaking and came across this. I think I'll go back to bed now.

:o)

The 90% problem: Over 90% of traders focus over 90% of their efforts into tweaking indicators, of which over 90% use some form of a moving average, and over 90% use the close price as their only input data. Not only that, but over 90% of traders dont really understand how the indicators they are tweaking work. Should it be any wonder that over 90% of traders fail?

You're a lucky duck, Hils ;)
I've just had to swallow a load of poxicillin - and now I'm psyching myself up for a tweak with the dentist :S

But I just lerve the thin red line :o)

I've got multiple thin red lines now, I luv 'em so much. Not forgetting the Arrers of course.

Hils, Choccie:-)

Couldn\'t agree more Hils re understanding how the indicators actually work, in fact I was telling someone exactly the same thing last night! ;)

Hmm. Having been 100 pips up at one point I have been stopped out for 40 on the spike down just after 12 - but I couldn't get near my PC when we were 100 up. Never mind, still a good profit.

Edit - hear hear on the indicators thing - I only use indicators I understand - so success is guaranteed apparently :-S

Just popping back in briefly - glad I didn't take any notice of that supposed resistance @ 970 but still wondering about the magic numbers (they have no justification in TA - I just like 'em).

chocotoothache
I've made my thin red line a thick one - a bit like a lipstick line - just to remind me of it's source. Might change it to purple later :)

Hils
Can't remember if I thanked you for that email - if not - a big squelchy one from me.

Do they do them in black cherry, meggers? Come to think of it, mine's a bit thickish too.

Not sure about black cherry - I'll have to see if I can mix the colour pallette.

EDIT - just for you - now black cherry lipstick line - at the 81 level for 3 minute