for more information about stanelco click on the links.

driver's research page link
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
website link
http://www.stanelco.co.uk/index.htm

Gem,how can you say a shares going nowhere fast when its quadrupled in less than a year.Justify your comments please.

pisces
history is no guide.
and isnt going nowhere fast. its going down, slowly but surely. ( not a post wrt potential.....just what i see ).

pisces,it may have quadrupled previously but since it hit 28p its steadilly receded back to current levels, with further to fall ? the advancement in price has been purely on speculation not bottom line profits, i`m looking at the last years graph and it doesn`t look good for the short to mid term from where i`m sitting , dyor

Gem Hi,

In that case go somewhere else where you think you can make money, instead of irrelevant bashing here, because everyone that has done their own research here, knows they will make a fortune in SEO, it is only you that will lose out.

Cheers,
PM

What's this? pm and ii agreeing! angel and devil! Nevertheless it is interesting that DAWALLWORK is right re the potential of Stanelco and Gem and pisces et al are right to be cautious about short-term trading. At the moment, as pointed out in the Shares piece, SEO is a trader's stock. Thus the current sp is primarily governed by the game between traders and not the long-term position. A problem is that, without profits and thus pe's etc., it is difficult to put a figure on where the sp should be. Starpol is a strong addition to the protfolio and the Natureworks deal is good (as supplier to Stanelco) but the numbers being talked about can probably justify no more than 25-50m of the cap of some 180M. Thus the sp is primarily dependent on Greenseal. We are in the early stages of roll-out with Greenseal and, whilst informed investors may be confident, the market will wait to see the ASDA deal come to real numbers and a good deal being negotiated in the US. Thus II's graph shows the current trading channel and, for all his negativity, this speaks for itself.

So, what is fascinating with current position is that there is a real dicotomy (that's not an operation, sd!) between traders and investors. Investors will look at the longer-term trend line, upward from February, will weed out the hype induced by the traders, see the support level at 18p, project the position forward, say 6 months, when the ASDA deal is in full flow and good business coming through from the US and will be filling their boots with shares at around the current price. I suspect the traders will join them around 18p, perhaps wishing to be quite certain that the support level is not to be broken.

A point to add about the Traders' comments recently. Since MoneyAM got rid of the animosity shown and caused by some active Trader's this thread has returned to a high quality and I appreciate recent comments from the Traders as I suspect they are representative and they help to explain the movements in the market. I would add, though, that the real movement in the sp will come from the fundamentals and that could be dramatic and rapid, particularly if it were to be a significant Wal-mart announcement.

Good luck to all; T's and I's. What was that about dots and crosses?

Eric

pm,this is an open board, don`t throw your toys out of the pram because you don`t like people airing a different view and good luck with your fortune telling, sorry i should have said fortune making

I notice that Evolution have repeated their Buy recommendation on 30th August and have kept their projections unchanged. Interesting in that they have withdrawn their previous papers from their evbgresearch site.

As per my previous note, I have no objection to the posts of gem and others questioning the short-term potential of SEO. I suggest, though, that gem reconsiders his 4-5 year view as, if there is to be a breakthrough in the market for Stanelco, it will have to happen within the year.

Eric

eric, is what your saying basically that if there is no breakthrough back above the 28p( previosly reached) within a year then it is not going to happen ?

Eric Hi,

EVO have put all the documents back on the website today ....

Cheers,
PM

Published Documents

05/07/05 - Joint venture deal
View PDF [227k]




06/06/05 - Update
View PDF [115k]




23/05/05 - Update
View PDF [138k]




11/04/05 -
View PDF [125k]




07/04/05 - Updates
View PDF [131k]




24/03/05 - Update
View PDF [185k]




28/02/05 - Update
View PDF [192k]




28/02/05 - Update
View PDF [148k]




08/02/05 - Results of RF trials
View PDF [168k]




31/01/05 - Update
View PDF [141k]




11/01/05 - Initiating coverage
View PDF [207k]

eric - at least I can spell! there's a 'k' in the operation, but an 'h' in what you mean! lol!

gem - I am happy to present a very different view of the chart for you. We had a nice strong up channel from Jan to May, followed by a BULLISH downward sloping flag Jun-Jul which is a continuation formation which has now hit double bottom (lol Benny Hill!), breaking the downward retracement channel during August, before it resumes its strong upward channel towards 32p as forecast by Evolution. Even the last two day's drop has not broken the 18p d/b support level.

(Flag: A flag is a small rectangle pattern that slopes against the previous trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down. If the move was down, then the flag would slope up. Because flags are usually too short in duration to actually have reaction highs and lows, the price action just needs to be contained within two parallel trend lines. See Stockcharts.com)

http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/flagPennant.html

I see today a lot of traders and probably shorter-term investors selling to move on elsewhere to faster profits after only solid as opposed to exciting EGM news and from midday on a number of serious buyers coming in to pick up the baton at a good price.

I'm not claiming to be right, but I am saying my interpretation fits the facts as well as any.

sd

I see PM's finally lost it!

The big buys are heartening. People investing that amount of money are not gambling; and they're not guessing either. Patience will bring its own reward. We didn't train all those US engineers "just in case".

sd: well done! I knew your dogtionery would sort it out. That's a good piece on flags as well. Another way of looking at it is that there is a long term up-trend which is appropriate for an emerging company with a correction reflecting over-heating in the share. The on-going news is good but the rate of progress at present fits the long term trend but not the over-enthusiastic response to the first ASDA breakthrough with rumours of US action.

gem: that was not my point. What I am saying is that the breakthrough, based on fundamentals, will come in the next year. I am not saying that I have any real fear that it will not happen but one has to accept a risk with any emerging company until the goods have been delivered. If there were not a risk then the price would be achieved now. I am basically in tune with Dawallwork and several other contributors: on current trading a cap. of 100m would be appropriate; expectations could see the cap. moving to 1000m; so a cap. of around 200m is a reasonable compromise. There may be chartists views of these things but those only present a result of a conglommeration of views of mnay traders and investors. The future is yet to come, as the saying goes; lots of water to flow under the bridge; etc. etc. The problem as I see it is, sharedwith many traders: do I lee my heavy stake in SEO waiting for the next breakthrough, or do I trade some of the funds in the interim with the danger of missing the next SEO price hike?

Eric

I think a major concern from the EGM statement was the low number of conversions and the perceived difficulty persuading suppliers to adopt the Greenseal technology and how this might delay any signing of a license with Walmart.
ASDA have been trialling this technology for months and have committed to roll it out to suppliers and i have no reason to suspect this will not happen. It must be fair to assume that Walmart at this moment share the same view as ASDA, trial data must be sitting on Walmart Exec's desks and i see no reason why further trials are necessary, ASDA = Walmart = happy to roll out Greenseal.
So the apparent slow uptake should not in my view affect the speed at which Walmart sign up, it could literally happen at any time now. Good luck to the traders but i'd prefer to be in when the RNS is announced.

in and out of HHO with the money from my SEO pot. Hehe made it work for me

the graph is inconclusive. Watch for the 200 ema to perhaps give some support if 19 fails. I am afraid that the p+f vertical targets are 23.4 and 14.7 ie risk/reward is not good at present

seroxat: funny! I always seem to agree with your posts: either its a case of great minds thinking alike or fools seldom differing! Your post puts the focus on the key difference between the fundamentals approach to investment compared with the chartist, perhaps normally seen as investor v. trader but that would be too simplistic. Re the ASDA roll-out, we were only a month into the exclusivity period and that was August so perhaps not sensible in the fist case to anticipate a rush of orders. I suspect there may need to be an amount of arm twisting alongside the reduction in payments from ASDA to their suppliers. But the key issue reflecting the future of the sp is the action in the US and central to that is Wal-Mart. I would think we are talking about weeks not months as they will have the benefit of the results of the ASDA trials. There may not be quite as much pressure on teh environmental side but the main benefits according to ASDA are the reduction in production costs through reduced energy and the better product, including impact on shelf life. These are supermarket fundamentals and I can't see Wal-Mart not coming on board. The key issue is whether they are serious enough to want a competitive advantage as with ASDA. My opinion is that SEO will want to play this through before making any commitments to other suppliers. It could run into October, but, if it does, I suspect there will be rumours which will start to push the price along. This is to support your comment that you would prefer to be in rather than out when the news comes.

Eric

Snip: I couldn't agree less regarding risk v. reward. My view is that the downside is 18p given that support level: confidence elvel high, although I accept you have correctly called the next support level. But the upside is not in your charts: rather that we could see the continuation of the projection through the 28p level. Given the discussion on the US potential, we can't read the next resistance level until we see the nature of a US agreement and, in particular, how this is interpreted in terms of the number of Greenseal licences. Thus I would take the support and resistance levels as 18p and 28p (a 9:1 favourable bet) with break-through on the high side as more likely than on the low and to potentially much more dramatic effect. Happy to argue this further.

Eric

Just heard from Tom Bulford (RHPS).



SEO remains a BUY.



Doesn't say anything we dont already know - talks about the increased production of Biotec's biodegradable pellets, mostly.

snip - agree chart is inconclusive until we move up through the interim 22p peak in which case we carry on up to assualt the earlier 28p peak. If we fail, time to reconsider what next - could fall back to form triple bottom at 18p - even stronger support established from which to resume up channel, or we fall through that and your pessimism becomes recognised for the clairvoyant perspicacity it is.

My money's on the upside, because there is fundamental value in the company which supports it.

sd

Eric
I hope we're not a pair of fools, i suspect by xmas we'll be seen as great minds!