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Hope you're all out of those shorts guys.

Yep. Stopped out during the course of yesterday. Do you reckon it's time to be long or wait and see?

Doug

Doug,

For the first time in some time, I'm not really sure which side of the market you should be atm.

You're probably still safe being short the EUR/USD for the time being. Cable, I'm actually long atm but not 100% comfortable. I'm going to give it a bit longer.

German Jobs news holding things up

Thanks Hil. I'm not trading EUR/USD - concentrating on GBP/USD so I'll probably stand aside for the moment.

Who are you using for news?

looking like the fall in the USD might have run its course for a while

brave shorts anyone?

shorted cable at 18350

Hillary,

What trading method do you use? Ive started to notice how more often than not you have a good feel for the FX market. Is that just from experience or do you get good signals from a specific sort of TA?

Tellon,

I just use the free charts on the web. I'm interested in trading the 3+ day trend for several hundred pips and am prepared to lose a hundred pips or so along the way if I get it wrong, so breaks of support and resistance are the most important indicators for me. Scalping for 20 or 30 pips along the way is of no interest to me whatsoever.

How do you form your support and resistance points? I.E Trend Line, EW, Gann Angles or do you rely on other websites for the information I.E www.fxstreet.com.

Also you say you use free charts on the web, Example the Dailyfx charts. Do you concentrate then on the hourly and daily periods and ignore the noise from the 15min and less charts?

Sorry for all the questions, just trying to get an understanding of your setup.

weak bounce on eur/usd off support looking for another test of the lows 11990-12000

Nothing to Hilary of course!...only 50 points away

1.8400 too much for Cable today

Looks like a new downward trend has begun.

Short Cable from 1.8373

For those on EuroFX,

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Tuesday's bounce in the euro versus the dollar is just that, a bounce. Sell into any euro strength.

Short-term, the euro is oversold. So it's only natural that it should claw back some of its losses since February's all-time high.

Wednesday saw it as strong as $1.2149, compared with Tuesday's $1.1978. It thus nearly reached my forecast level between $1.2180 and $1.2250 where on Monday I suggested selling it, with a stop loss above Friday's intraday high at $1.2380.

But if my bearish view is right this stop-loss level shouldn't be reached. It's more likely to decline below this week's low at $1.1978 over Easter and probably get as far as $1.1848 - the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September to February uptrend.

From a fundamental point of view this ties in with the current rate hike optimism in the U.S., which should continue to fuel the dollar's strength.

Currently, though, the $1.2054 to $1.2000 support area, might once again hold and lead to a short-term continuation higher for a couple of days or so. But once breached, it should act as strong resistance instead.

Selling into strength is a small risk when compared with the potential profits if it falls below the $1.1978 area, which I expect it will soon.

The euro was trading at $1.2095 at 0943 GMT Wednesday

Tellon did you get stopped out

No, My stops at 420 & 408

Stopped out, once again the market has shown me that I know nothing..

MPC today -- going up?

morning mm;
concensus on blooomberg, on 45 analysts surveyed
18 say up .25
27 say no change.

no one, apart from me, considering .5,
but unlikely.

ftse thinking no change
cable pretty stable.

Tough call. I think that most people are staying sidelined atm. Not just because they're not sure on the rate call itself, but also because it's immediately ahead of a long weekend and a lot of people are already on holiday. The chart isn't giving much away either, imo, except that there's a possibility of more upside but upwards momentum is exhausting. Fundamentally $1.84 is probably fair value, given the news currently in the round.

On bloomberg now there saying about increasing 50 bases points.. Looks like someone is on your side Beeble..