ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

abe_levy

dawsinho and I had shot off at a tangent as MPH, a member of the ASOS Challenge Portfolio, had fallen back significantly after good results. I was exploring opinions re taking out a cfd because fall clearly overdone. johngtudor, our leading guru (got to keep him happy!) gave as a criteria a 3:1 ratio of upside to downside. My calculations said 5:1 so I have a nice little position.

The main point of dicussion re ASOS is whether it will hit 1 before Xmas or in the New Year. Being a cautious sort of bloke (what's that lol noise, I hear?) I am going for a trading update slipping out in the New Year. Also there will be publicity for launch of Miss Sixty range. Should be way ahead by time of results with launch, also, of own label with potential for improved margins.

Eric

EWRobinson

I thought that CFDs were only traded on larger companies. Can you trade CFD's on companies such as ASC or MPH - and if so with whom? Thanks.

abe_levy

blue index. Generally, 3:1 multiple on small cap, including AIM. 4:1 on Alizyme (AZM). Still learning how to work with them; you really have to put a limit on the buying price, unlike your broker who you can trust to buy at best (hopefully!). Takes a few days to set up. Don't think I would go smaller than MPH: there needs to be a reasonably free market in the share. It seems to me that MPH is ideal (as ASC) because the next results are pretty well assured as their winter collections are 85% delivered and we are clearly still in a spell of continuous growth and good news flow. Look at discussion in earlier posts, particularly johngtudor.

Eric

EWRobson.

Thanks. I am going to look into MPH.

John

How are the ASC charts looking to you - look fine to me! Just tucking into Technical Analysis plain and simple (Kahn, pub. FT); but a little knowledge ...!

Eric

Eric: I do hope you are reading Kahn with a glass or two of fine wine near by...you might need it!! Seriously, tomorrow will be an important day for holders of ASC stock (end of week close value in particular) as the recent high price on the bar chart did not exceed the previous high, and so we might see another small pullback yet before the big push to establish a new high! Still, in terms of the bigger picture we are still in the uptrend, and for all those of us who bought in at the lower levels, sitting comfortably on large profits.

John

John

Kahn will wile the time away on the flight to Vancouver next week, no doubt with a decent wine as it is KLM (unless the combination puts me to sleep). Looks to be just right with good definitions and examples. Great ASC profits already but I am tending to treat the cfd adventure separately; not quite in profit yet but then its away! Don't really see yesterday's close as a high - ASC seems to trade in a 10p range and then move on to the next band: last week was 70s, this week, 80s; fully expect 90s next week, perhaps through Xmas, and 1 in the New Year. Just buying volume really as not expecting news this month. Why 'end of week'? Or is it established that the EOW trend is a reliable indicator, possibly taking into account week-long trading positions?

There's a question for you on the MPH column re 'head and shoulders'!

Eric

ASOS Challenge Portfolio

A relatively quiet week with a general easing in prices. Everybody too busy doing Chrimpens shopping; fortunately our ASC girls are doing all their buying at home (or office) on the Internet! Short report today as I have the Income Tax to complete before going off on hols on Wednesday.

company_________ EPIC pp(p)_ issue(m) shares price_ value_ cap(m) gain % gain wk

Broker Network H BNH_ 77.5__ 15.065__ 6450__ 118.50 7643.3 17.85_ 52.90_ 0.00
ASOS____________ ASC_ 56____ 67.97___ 8900__ 83.50_ 7431.5 56.75_ 49.11_ 9.15
Stanelco________ SEO_ 4.5___ 782.225_ 111000 5.50__ 6105.0 43.0__ 22.22_ -6.46
Yoomedia________ YOO_ 22____ 163.313_ 22700_ 20.75_ 4710.3 33.89_ -5.68_ 0.00
Civilian Content CCN_ 16.25_ 41.883__ 30700_ 14.50_ 4451.5 6.07__ -10.77 -9.38
Sterling Energy_ SEY_ 17.25_ 822.712_ 29000_ 15.25_ 4422.5 125.46 -11.59 -1.61
Marchpole Hold._ MPH_ 33.75_ 120.455_ 14800_ 28.50_ 4218.0 34.33_ -15.56 5.56
Petrel Resources PET_ 124.5_ 58.625__ 4000__ 100.00 4000.0 58.63_ -19.68 -2.44
CFA Capital Gp__ CFP_ 0.7___ 619_____ 714000 0.55__ 3927.0 3.40__ -21.43 0.00
cybit holdings__ CYH_ 1.82__ 988.952_ 275000 1.40__ 3850.0 13.85_ -23.08 -3.45
Petroceltic Int. PCI_ 15____ 484.975_ 33300_ 10.00_ 3330.0 48.50_ -33.33 2.56

total______________________________________________ 54089.0______ -1.66_ -0.49

Smallcap index______________________________2696.30 57114.0______ 3.84__ 0.05

3 well up! 8 down! So portfolio is not looking very clever at the moment. However, one thing you can say is that it is not a dull portfolio; not one to put under the mattress and forget about. My somewhat closer view last week certainly pointed to a lot of potential and the lower prices give a buying opportunity in a number of the shares. At the beginning of the week I mooted taking a cfd in MPH or CYH. johngtudor gave his guiding rule of a 3:1 upside to downside - you clearly also need a reasonably sized market and MPH scored on that front too. It has been a good choice as the share is now clearly on an uptrend.

As I pointed out last week, CYH price is held down by their conservative accounting principles; but these will be boosting the price in two or three years time as the carried forward revenue increases. CFP is, to some extent, in the same boat; no credit being given to work in progress. CCN is another share which has been quietly drifting with no news. YOO is in another vacuum until the EGM on 20th December to approve the acquisitions, share issue and restructuring. A strong statement is then expected from Evolution which could mean a strong forward movement, despite the increase in share cap. to 450M. Yours Truly had another letter in Shares on behalf of the bb, taking up the issue of share options to the Directors whilst current holders lose out.

BNH still leads the way although well back from the mid-week peak. ASC is consolidating in the 80s before a likely push over the seasonal season for pundits; so much that is positive in the pipeline. SEO is particularly interesting at the moment. A 10M investment of funds and an indication of good contract news is not currently off-setting the on-going litigation; as with MPH this could give a good buying opportunity.

So that leaves us with the oils! There are now smoke signals coming from the Middle East! Strangely enough from Jordan, where one of their Ministers is reported to have spoken of the allocation of drilling rights to PET. The area concerned is part of the same geological system as Block 6 in western Iraq where PET's rights were suspended during the war. A fascinating article in the Irish Independent appeared to leak details of the contract bids for the two northern fields which are awaiting decisions. It all looks very positive; a last chance to buy in? Don't say you weren't warned!

Poor old PCI is still languishing in the wake of the aborted drill in Tunisia; I suspect they will have the last laugh but not perhaps for a while. SEY is amongst the oil stocks affected by the oil price fall and lack of positive drilling news.

With Jordan jumping the gun it seems quite likely that we will see a PET announcement this week - the drinks will be on Sandra, or perhaps a party!

Eric

Eric: Another cracking weekly report - thanks. Speaking of Whistler, I am sure everyone wants to know if you will be able to find an Internet Cafe or whatever they have up in the mountains that will keep you in touch with World events and particularly our/your Portfolio? Given where you are going it will probably all be linked up through the Tele! Anyway we expect to hear from you over the festive season. John

John

I suspect there is just a wee bit of risk with my current portfolio, particularly the CFDs - ASC is again over 50% but also have positions in AZM, MPH, TEP and YOO. Son-in-law has laptop so I will do a daily check anyway, including investors room. Mind it will mean getting up early to be involved before the close. No doubt, there will be insights or questions from Kahn. I'll try not to create too much envy by describing the heavenly environment (or the apres-ski!).

Eric

A party sounds like a great idea! All welcome.

Thanks again Eric for the weekly analysis. Surely we are now in our last few days of waiting for our first(of several) PET contract(s)to be announced. Can't wait!

Also looking forward to your letters in Shares becoming a weekly column....now there's a good idea!

Thanks, Sandra. Just waiting for Jeremy to offer me the job as number 2 to John Marshall - great guy but I'm not sure he is a genuine risk taker. Just look down the shares on the MoneyAM Investors Room and they are nearly all high risk to some extent, certainly shares with large upside potential which rarely comes without risk. ASOS, of course, is the exception, a lovely little performer which knows where its going and clearly has excellent management. Going steadily ahead again today. So, where's the party then?

Eric

Bit of a nasty dive today. Why so many sells??

Question - Is 80p a potential resistance? Or will she fall further?

sandrew64;

Short of the readdies for Xmas pressies???????

That's no excuse....I've got a party to prepare for!!

But Sandra has got her PET shares! We need johngtudor for the charts. What strikes me is that the August pattern was similar with two similar lows around the MA50 mark before the share pulled away. That would suggest that 76p will be tested again. Having said that, it depends who is selling - I somehow doubt it is profit-taking; why do that now? If it is derampers playing games, then they have to buy back the shares they have sold. May know the answer later in the day, or week.

Eric

Did anyone else see the article in The Business at the weekend?

Sad Santa in slow lane as superhighway takes the reins.....the article goes on to discuss how bleak the season is on the high street, but how it's a different story for online retailers,quoting from Forrester Research that Europe will generate 9.1bn in online sales over the holiday period, A 44% increase on last year with growth outpacing the US. The Interactive Media in Retail Group predicts that UK online sales in Nov and Dec. will total 4bn, a 63% increase on last year. Online accounts for 6% of the total 234bn retail market in the UK, but the IMRG expects this to double this year.
The only online retailers mentioned by name were ASOS and then at the end of the article Tesco and Sainsbury.

EWR, when you say BNH may break through the tape first, what do you mean?? What is the challenge and how long does it last for??

Nice sized buy at the end of the day, 200k.