for more information about stanelco click on the links.

driver's research page link
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
website link
http://www.stanelco.co.uk/index.htm

Obviously now its official, SEO were required to put out todays RNS. I wonder how long it will be before the usual posts stating such comments as.....Why are SEO putting out such none event rubbish....Just because SEO have nothing re the conversion update they put out the usual ramp ect.....
Just thought I would get in first....

Morning all

I thought that the following post from another board was balanced, thought provoking and educational to the slightly lesser experienced investors here.

I am sure lots will be driven to respond to this post but I feel it my duty to place a post on here which is slagging no-one off and providing a little info on a small company I know called Stanelco. Something tells me this is the right place to post this.....

Just doing my Sunday night research on my portfolio and despite some people advising to sell (no matter how many times we HAVE BEEN WARNED! :-)), I wanted to ask everyone to look at the charts.

IMHO (and I have said this before) we are in a sideways trend, I said this a few weeks ago and the longer we go on the more the charts are telling me I am correct.

Look at the peak at 29p and then look at the downward retracement, this retracement clearly stopped when it hit 18p on 21/07. This is the first sign of support. The price then rose swiftly to 22p by the 29/07 this is our resistance. - Dont believe me? - Read On...

We hit 22p again on 08/08 (Resistance) steadily dropping to 18p (support) on the 24/08. Our highest peak since then is 21p (still below resistance level) on 31/08.

So 18p is our psycological support level (not the 14p which some are touting) and 22p is the resistance level, this gives us a 4p trading range (20%), which in anybodys book is a good return. Trading longs and shorts (if you get it right) its a 40% cycle.

Now tell me, where is the sense in holding a short position for 14p if you are "trading" this share. It makes as much sense as holding a long positoin for 30p if you are "trading".

Notice I am distiguishing trading from investing, this is so I do not offend the investors on this board who are happy to ride the peaks and troughs for what they see as a long term gain.

Now for my prediction (which will no doubt be raked back up in 2 months when I am wrong!)....

If we hit 18p again and bounce back from it (without breaking below) then we will have seen what is called a "tripple bottom. This has nothing to do with J LO but is a stronger buy signal in TA terms than a "Head and Shoulders" which many will be quoting at you. This means we should see the share start an upward trend. Taking that theory further the resistance should fall easily meaning the next resitance level would be 29p.

Downside....
If the stock falls below 18p, then there is NO obvious support until the old 2 - 4p range! - Still no sign of a 14p support in my book. - In otherwords its up to the markets where the bottom is formed.

The chart covering the last six months should be in here, but for some reason it will not "paste". But there a chart at the top of this page so it won't be too much of a chore to scroll up and see what "Markbhai" is referring to.

I hope this has been informative, useful and unoffensive.

I welcome any comments from anyone (including Ollie) so long as the insults stay off the page!

All in my opinion only.

Markbhai.

Hopefully it will help to put things into perspective for the more nervous investors on this board who are sometimes troubled by the negative posts, of which some to be fair, are reasonably well argued.

This was followed up by a comment that the two "bounces" from 18p were before expected of pre-notified announcements/meetings and so had little to do with a real bounce in purely technical terms.

Any comments?

The oily one

well either the market likes the confirmation rns or something is brewing ......

bos
Don't be stupid you are obviously uninformed its all to do with the stars sorry charts.

we should it 25p. in the next twoweeks

Oily re Markbhai

There is actually a 14p support level if you look back at Feb and April, albeit not enormously substantial. I thnk it would come into play if we got below 18p, 'cos 4p really does not make sense anymore.

However, more to the point, I do not think we are heading back to another bounce off the 18p support. I think more likely we will continue to struggle off that double-bottom, eventually up through the 22p resistance above which the share should run back up to 26p. If we don't breach the 22p resistance, we will trade sideways within the 18-22p range until some decisive news and thus, inevitably by virtue of proximity alone, be that much more at risk of breaking the 18p support.

Breach of 18p support would be a strong sell signal for many, including probably me. Breach of 22p support would confirm what most on this thread have faith in. Until either of these events, in the words of Bosley, boring (unless traylids and bio-plastic hold particular interest for you!). But don't forget, boring is usually good for investing .

sd

sd

driver, i take it you're not a chartist , then? i thought it was a good post from oily , the only thing really wrong is that the last significant trading range for seo was 4p-6p and not 2p-4p.

Bos
Not really a chartist the chart is only reflecting the movement in the sp, the sp moves on news, results or the lack of it. Flags triangles its all-coincidental, going through the 18p or 22p is not the chart but the sp, the chart comes after that move it does not predict it.

driver - charting is based upon empirical experience - you're quite right the SP creates the chart, but charts do sometimes demonstrate patterns that suggest historical behaviour will be repeated by the SP. Then there is the whole question of crowd behaviour which tends to enhance incipient behaviour patterns until they have gone too far, when they reverse. Charting, like all of science, is not true, merely a projection of predictably repeatable behaviour patterns.

Since there is nothing fundamental to say about SEO (all having been well said) I find it interesting to see whether chart analysis can tell us what might happen next short-mid term.

You will have the last laugh since 90% of traders, most of whom are slaves to the charts, I am told lose money!

sd

sd
I always have the last laugh even if I lose money, life is to short.

the last laugh is defined as you laughing whilst all around you are crying - then you find out why! llol (sic)

sd

Oilywag
Heres your chart you couldn't paste.

there's some nice paint drying over there............

Bos Hi,

No getting over emultional now :))))

Cheers,
PM

Driver

Couldn't agree more. Charts reflect, they don't predict. If Walmart sign tomorrow where are the charts?!

It's all bollocks.

More to the point. Anyone tell me what's going on today? Strange chart for a Monday!

driver I look upon chart theory as self-fulfilling prophecy. If history says that a third bounce off a support level will take it through the resistance level, history will repeat itself because (a) the buyers will come in when the support level is reached just because the support level is reached; (b) the sellers will not return when the resistance level is tested because they expect it to be breached. Thus its worth taking notice of. Having said that, the break through the resistance level will inevitably occur, in my view, when there is a significant business development. The chartist will say, 'I told you so' and will then look ahead to see what happens when the next resistance level at 28p is tested and some will take profits and try to short the share. We know better - that resistance level will be broken depending on the strength of the news!

Thanks to those who commented on my summary of the Evolution update. It has got it wrong, referring to Cargill as a customer for Starpol 2000. The helpful statistic is that the supply of 15000 tonnes of Starpol in the next year will be at indicated prices of $5 to $8 suggesting first year sales of $75m. Natureworks are clearly both a supplier and a competitor; you wonder whether they could become a customer. Accepting that the end-user products of Stanelco and Natureworks are essentially compementary, the latter's link with Wal-Mart must be a significant plus in SEO's negotiations with them.

Looking again at last week's RNS, the following statement is clearly important: "the material is also easily sealable with our Greenseal technology project, which continues to progress well, and which will enable us to offer a complete biodegradable, environmentally responsible packaging solution at a competitive cost.'

Eric

Eric, have you contacted the responsible Evolution analyst and informed him?

Niels. good suggestion. I have just sent an e-mail for the attention of Tim Freeborn, suggesting that he updates the update!

I must say that I like the network approach that Stanelco are adopting; most of us like our backs being scratched (except for dogs like sd who like their tummies scratched!).

Eric

I'm sure Freeborn will agree he was wrong. He may also be partially right if rumours about an initial Starpol 2000 order from NW to SEO are true. Looks as if SEO buys raw material from NW, works it into Starpol and sells it back (eventually to end up in WM).

Niels: that seems to make sense in that Starpol would be good for NM's product range which includes trays etc. The key end-user market for SEO must be in the Greenseal turnkey context. Could be really sizeable business (Cargill are massive)and help to draw Wal-Mart into the act. One doubts that NW would be interested in fostering competition unless they are a beneficiary. It also makes more sense of the emphasis that SEO have given to the contract; you would hardly make much of a supply contract normally, would you? keep us posted about 'rumour development'!

Eric

Eric