POST YOUR OIL NEWS, Clips here


"

Gas prices not likely to go down much more, experts say
100 commentsby Ryan Randazzo - Aug. 14, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic
The recent retreat in oil and gasoline prices has given drivers a much-appreciated break, but experts warn that the earlier record levels weren't a freak event.

In fact, the prices soared without any sort of major disruption in supply and even as U.S. demand was declining.

So, enjoy the small drop in pump prices for now. Experts say it even could last months, but don't be surprised if a hurricane, war or other event sends prices back up.
And don't expect them to fall much more, if at all.

The U.S. Department of Energy predicts gas prices to end 2008 at an average of $3.65 a gallon, rising to $3.82 next year.

"While the pressure on prices may continue . . . the fundamental picture has remained intact," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote recently, predicting oil would end the year at $149 a barrel.

Filling a sedan's 16-gallon gas tank in Phoenix today costs about $6.40 less than it did June 20, when prices broke records, according to AAA Arizona.

But even with the drop, that fill-up is $18 more than a year ago, when prices averaged $2.62 a gallon.

That's because oil still is about 60 percent more expensive today than a year ago.

Oil prices closed Wednesday at $116 a barrel. They were up for the day but were down more than $30 from a month earlier, when prices hit a record $147.27 a barrel July 11.


Consumption falling

The U.S. is using about 800,000 fewer barrels of oil a day, or 33.6 million fewer gallons, compared with consumption in 2007, according to the Department of Energy.

It is the largest consumption decline the country has seen in 26 years, according to the department.

"You are seeing demand destruction happen in a big way," said Phil Flynn, an analyst with Alaron Futures and Options in Chicago.

Flynn said that oil could fall to $95 a barrel in the short term but that the recent run-up in prices shows that $200 a barrel wouldn't be impossible amid a major catastrophe.

"This (oil-price decline) is a combination of demand starting to fall off and the value of the dollar getting stronger," he said. "We could have hit $200 with a major disruption."

Randall Werner, owner of Advanced Commodity Trading in Scottsdale, blames major investors for artificially pumping up prices earlier this year by purchasing expensive contracts, speculating that prices would rise.

"It's only good for our country that oil is dropping," Werner said. "It was inevitable it was going to happen. It is very good for everyone, except maybe these big fund managers that got stuck in there while it was dropping."


Global demand growing

One of the latest predictions of $200-a-barrel oil came from London's Chatham House institute, which said such prices are possible by 2013 because of current global demand and the failure of oil producers to invest in new resources.

The report by analyst Paul Stevens says many oil-exporting nations could reduce exports as their own domestic demand increases.

"To avoid a crunch, energy policy needs to reduce the demand growth of liquid fuels, to increase the supply of conventional liquids or to increase the supply of unconventional liquids," Stevens wrote. "Only extreme policy measures could achieve a speedy response - and these are usually politically unpopular."

He said governments will be more likely to act as prices rise.

"This (supply crunch) might do for energy policy what 9/11 did for U.S. military and security policy," he said.

During the next 18 months, growing demand in China, the Middle East, Latin America and India should more than offset the slumping demand in the U.S. and other countries, according to the Department of Energy.

Those statistics fuel predictions for continuing price increases.

"Going forward, people should not assume this is more than a temporary break in prices," said Steve Andrews, co-founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas in Denver.

"They should make buying decisions, the homes they buy, their vehicles. They should make those decisions with an eye toward more expensive petroleum in the future probably because there will be a little less of it."

ASPO-USA encourages "prudent energy management . . . during an era of depleting petroleum resources" and promotes the concept that global oil production is near its peak, after which easy-to-recover, inexpensive oil will be in shorter and shorter supply.

"The ceiling (for oil prices) can be enormously high and hard to predict, while the price floor will slowly and gradually keep moving up each year," Andrews said.

"It's impressive we have cut back driving as much as we have, but it's also probably somewhat painful for people. It means less money spent driving to the local mall or vacation spot."

In the next few months, prices should stay low but only to a point, he said.

"It seems likely that OPEC will cut supply a little when the price approaches $100 or $90 a barrel," he said. "That will tend to push prices back up."

Oil prices shoot higher on Venezuela call for output cut
7 hours ago

LONDON (AFP) Oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday after OPEC member Venezuela, concerned about recent lower prices, said it would ask the cartel to agree to a cut in output when it next meets in September.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery, jumped 2.88 dollars to 114.65 dollars a barrel as a result, coming off early lows.

London's Brent North Sea crude for October rallied 2.65 dollars to 114.60 dollars.

"The market is reacting to reports that OPEC may cut production," said Veronica Smart, an analyst at the Energy Information Centre in Britain.

Venezuela will propose production cuts at the next OPEC meeting in September if oil prices continue to fall, Venezuelan Energy and Petroleum Minister Rafael Ramirez had said on Tuesday.

"If there is a trend or dynamic toward lower oil prices, Venezuela will consider the possibility of a cut in production," Ramirez said in an official government release.

"This is the position that we will take at the next OPEC meeting" in Vienna in September, he added.

Oil prices fell close to 110 dollars earlier on Tuesday as Tropical Storm Fay missed energy production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico while weak data on the US economy stoked concerns that demand in the world's biggest market will slow.

Prices have fallen significantly since hitting record highs above 147 dollars last month. Yet on Tuesday, they were still almost 15 percent higher compared to the start of the year when oil broke through 100 dollars for the first time.

A leading British energy consultancy, CGES, had on Monday said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) might decide to cut output next month should the price of crude fall under 100 dollars.

Oil prices were down on Monday owing to the reduced threat from Tropical Storm Fay to energy installations and on news that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would soon reopen.

Fay on Tuesday hit Florida with severe winds and drenching rains but it did not strengthen into the potentially devastating hurricane residents had been dreading.

The Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Fay, which claimed dozens of lives around the Caribbean over the weekend, should begin to weaken now that it was over land.

Turkey had on Monday said that it expected to reopen the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline in a few days after completing repairs to a fire-damaged link.

Inaugurated in 2006, the 1,774-kilometre (1,109-mile) pipeline carries Azeri oil from the Caspian Sea fields via Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. It is capable of transporting 1.2 million barrels of crude per day.

20/08/2008

LONDON: Oil prices extended recent gains Wednesday, with New York crude climbing above 115 dollars a barrel, on prospects of a possible cut to OPEC production, traders said.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery, climbed 55 cents to 115.08 dollars a barrel.

London's Brent North Sea crude for October delivery advanced 54 cents to 113.79 dollars a barrel in electronic deals.

Crude oil prices had already closed up by more than one dollar on Tuesday after OPEC member Venezuela said it would ask the cartel at its September meeting to cut production if downward price pressure continues.

Despite the latest price gains, world oil prices are down from record highs of above 147 dollars, reached in July, as weak US economic data raise fears for oil demand and dim investor appetite for commodities.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is steered by Saudi Arabia, produces about 40 percent of the world's oil.

The US Department of Energy was to release its latest weekly snapshot of energy stockpiles in the country later Wednesday.

Oil prices, which broke through the 100-dollar level at the start of 2008, remain well above year-ago levels.

Oil prices rise as petrol stocks fallFont Size: Decrease Increase

August 21, 2008

OIL prices rose today after a larger-than-expected decline in US petrol stocks but gains were likely to be limited, analysts said.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for October delivery, rose $US1.01 to $US116.57 a barrel.

The September contract expired at the close in New York yesterday at $US114.98 a barrel.

Brent North Sea crude for October delivery was 89 cents higher today at $US115.25.

The increases followed the US Department of Energy's (DoE's) report that crude oil stockpiles in the United States climbed 9.4 million barrels in the week ending August 15. Analysts had forecast a much smaller gain of 800,000 barrels.

The DoE said US gasoline, or petrol, reserves slumped 6.2 million barrels last week, compared with market expectations for a drop of 2.4 million barrels.

"People are looking at the gasoline inventory drawdown,'' said Tetsu Emori, fund manager at Astmax asset management in Tokyo.

Gasoline stocks are closely watched at this time of year when American motorists are on the highways for their summer holidays, typically pushing up demand for gasoline.

But analysts say the overall demand for oil in the US, the world's biggest energy consumer, has fallen heavily and there are fears of slowing demand elsewhere.

World oil prices have tumbled sharply from record highs above $US147 set in July as economic stagnation dents global demand for energy.

Prices broke through the $US100 level at the start of the year and Mr Emori said demand worries could help pull oil back towards a range of $US90 to $US105 by year's end.

"I think the price is going to be heading to the downside for the medium term, to the end of the year,'' he said.

Traders said interest was rising about the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) position at its September meeting. OPEC, which is steered by Saudi Arabia, produces about 40 per cent of the world's crude.

A leading British energy consultancy, CGES, said Monday that OPEC might decide to cut output next month should the price of crude fall below $US100.

Oil extends losses after biggest drop since 2004Reuters, Monday August 25 2008 *

By Fayen Wong

PERTH, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Oil deepened losses on Monday, hovering just above $114 a barrel, on diminishing supply concerns as Tropical Storm Fay crossed over land and on easing geopolitical tensions as Russia withdrew the bulk of its troops from Georgia.
But analysts said geopolitical tensions between United States and Russia, the world's second-biggest oil producer, would continue to lend support to prices until Moscow withdraws its troops completely from Georgia.
U.S. light crude for October delivery fell 34 cents to $114.25 a barrel by 2343 GMT. The contract fell $6.59, or 5.4 percent, to settle at $114.59 a barrel on Friday -- the biggest one-day fall in percentage terms since Dec. 27, 2004.
Oil has fallen about 22 percent since its peak of above $147 struck mid-July on concerns high energy costs are taking a toll on global fuel demand.
"The easing of Tropical Storm Fay and the pullout of Russian troops from Georgia has taken some risk premium out of the market," said Toby Hassall, chief analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney.
"But there will be some degree of geopolitical tensions as long as Russia still has troops stationed in Georgia."
Russia, which began to pull out the bulk of its forces from Georgia last week, said on Saturday its troops would patrol one of Georgia's main Black Sea ports, defying Western demands for a complete pullback to positions held before fighting broke out over a Georgian rebel region.
The easing of Tropical Storm Fay, which poured rain along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Sunday, also diminished concerns the storm might disrupt oil and natural gas production at the Gulf of Mexico production areas.
Energy companies, including Chevron Corp ExxonMobil Corp, BP Plc, ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell said they were keeping track of the storm but their operations were not affected.
Analysts said the market would also keep a close watch on the U.S. dollar, after its surge on Friday helped push oil prices lower.
Oil's sharp fall on Friday was also prompted by reports that showed an uptick in OPEC crude oil output and another showing an expected decline in U.S. travel over the Sept. 1 Labor Day holiday weekend as high fuel prices hit consumers.
Industry consultant Petrologistics said on Friday OPEC oil output was expected to rise in August by 450,000 barrels per day, to 32.95 million bpd, a factor that could further beef up inventory levels in consumer nations. The U.S. auto and travel group AAA said Labor Day holiday travel was expected to fall this year by the largest amount in at least eight years as consumers struggle with higher gasoline prices and airfares. (Reporting by Fayen Wong; Editing by Anshuman Daga) BusinessAds by Google

Oil firm above $115 on tropical storm, Russia tension

Tue 26 Aug 2008, 5:33 GMT

(Reuters) - Oil extended gains to stay above $115 a barrel on Tuesday, supported by worries that tropical storm Gustav in the Caribbean would turn into a hurricane and disrupt oil output in the Gulf of Mexico.

Crude for October delivery rose 37 cents to $115.48 a barrel by 0225 GMT, while London Brent crude gained 42 cents to $114.45 a barrel.

Tropical Storm Gustav, the seventh tropical storm formed in the central Caribbean, could strengthen into a hurricane before striking vulnerable Haiti, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

It was expected to hit Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, on Tuesday. At least one computer forecasting model showed the storm could enter the Gulf.

A drop in the dollar against the yen, pressured by sharp losses in the U.S. equities market, also helped buoy oil prices.

Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director at U.S.-based options trader Hudson Capital Energy, based in Singapore, said concerns about a possible hurricane had "a lot to do" with the gains in the past two days.

Support also came from ongoing tension between the West and Russia over Georgia and expectations that oil exporter group OPEC, which meets on September 9, could trim production should prices fall further.

"I think overall the trend of the market is bearish right now, but the hurricane premium as well as the Russia-NATO premium is what's keeping the market from dropping further," Kornafel said.

Russia's parliament urged the Kremlin on Monday to recognise two rebel regions of Georgia as independent states, raising alarm in the West.

Britain said on Monday it believed it would be wrong for all NATO-Russia contacts to be suspended despite widespread concern in the alliance about Russian military action in Georgia.

OPEC OUTPUT

Iran's oil minister said on Monday he expected OPEC to work on preventing the falling trend in crude prices and also to study oversupply in the market when it meets on September 9 in Vienna.

An OPEC source, however, said, the cartel is likely to keep oil output policy unchanged.

Another key piece of data on Wednesday will be U.S. crude oil inventories, which are likely to have risen 1.4 million barrels last week, a Reuters preliminary poll showed.

In the previous week, crude stocks shot up by 9.4 million barrels as crude imports rose after delivery delays caused by Tropical Storm Edouard.

The poll of eight analysts showed an average forecast for a 400,000-barrel gain in distillates.

Analysts expect U.S. gasoline stocks to show a drop of 2.8 million barrels, a fifth straight weekly decline, as refiners drained storage of summer-grade supply ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend, which marks the end of the summer driving season.

what do you think the floor for oil will be over the next few months. 90, 100$?

Worth watching bloomberg at 715-730pm as they report from Nymex which can indicate sentiment especially on a Wednesday from inventory reaction.Today they reported that Gustav was a worry as well as US/ Western escalations in tension and said that many traders would not want to be short over this weekend with Gustav potentially turning into a Katrina with associated platform evacuations and damage. On the other hand it may fizzle away to nothing. In brief perhaps not the best time to be short

You may be right.

I've got a feeling that one good hurricaine this year might see $147 a distant memory.

The rise earlier this year seems to have been due to a weak dollar and speculation on a massive scale with a bit of supply/demand thrown in. If there was a nasty hurricane, Ras Tanura and the straits of Hormuz got hit, we'd all become Chis Hoys!

AP Business Writer
Published: August 27, 2008

NEW YORK (AP) - Oil prices are rising after the government reported that U.S. crude supplies fell unexpectedly last week.
The Energy Information Administration says crude stockpiles fell slightly by 100,000 barrels to 305.8 million barrels for the week ending Aug. 22. That compared to the 1.5 million barrel increase forecast by analysts surveyed by Platts, an energy research firm.
The EIA also says gasoline stocks fell less than expected last week, dropping by 1.2 million barrels compared to the 2.8 million barrels analysts expected.
Supplies of distillates, which includes heating oil and diesel, were flat at 132.1 million barrels.
Light, sweet crude for October delivery is up $2.82 at $119.09 a barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


http://www.wsls.com/sls/business/consumer/article/oil_prices_rises_after_crude_supplies_fall_unexpectedly/16380/

Oil prices rise as Gustav threat looms
29 August 2008
LONDON (AFP) Oil prices rebounded on Friday as Tropical Storm Gustav risked becoming a hurricane once more and threatening energy production in the Gulf of Mexico, home to US refineries.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in October, jumped 1.40 dollars to 116.99 dollars per barrel in electronic deals.

London's Brent North Sea crude for October gained 1.15 dollars to 115.32 dollars per barrel.

British oil groups BP and Shell and US rival ConocoPhillips had Thursday evacuated workers from their energy installations in the Gulf of Mexico, as Gustav loomed.

ExxonMobil said it was preparing for the storm and "identifying personnel for possible evacuation to shore."

About a quarter of US crude oil installations are located in the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil prices had fallen sharply on Thursday as traders discounted the threat of the storm. But on Friday, Newedge energy analyst Ken Hasegawa warned: "Still we have to worry about the hurricane's effect on this market."

Tropical Storm Gustav battered Jamaica on Friday, dumping rain and ripping roofs off homes and threatened to grow into a hurricane after leaving 59 people dead in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Anxiety also grew on the US Gulf Coast on the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina and authorities in New Orleans were planning a possible mandatory evacuation to prevent a repeat of the devastation and deaths wreaked earlier.

Authorities in Louisiana and Mississippi have already declared states of emergency before Gustav's expected landfall late Monday as a hurricane.

Gustav had made landfall in Haiti on Tuesday as a Category One hurricane -- the lowest on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale -- before weakening into a tropical storm.

Meanwhile, the eighth tropical storm of the hurricane season, dubbed Hanna, was churning in the Atlantic on Friday and has the potential to become a hurricane.

Informative map that BA, have you got one of where the rigs are please?

Afraid not, Stan, but the route will cut through probably the majority of the Golf Coast fields. They're no doubt downmanned by now

OK thanks, lets hope the damn thing runs out of puff.

MMS information on Gustav - production shut in.

Oil gains over $1 as Gustav shuts U.S. output
Mon 1 Sep 2008, 2:13 GMT

* Oil over $116 as Gustav shuts U.S. Gulf fields, refineries

* Gustav expected to make landfall mid-Monday as Category 3

* Some traders wait to weigh up damage in hurricane's wake (Updates prices, adds details)

By Fayen Wong

PERTH, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than $1 on Monday after energy firms in the U.S. Gulf shut down nearly all offshore oil output and a host of flood-prone coastal refineries ahead of Hurricane Gustav, the biggest threat since 2005's devastating Katrina.

But prices pared some bigger earlier gains as traders waited to see whether Gustav would leave lasting damage in its wake after it slams into the Louisiana coast later in the day as a major Category 3 hurricane.

U.S. light crude for October delivery rose $1.11 to $116.57 a barrel by 0303 GMT, having briefly surged above $118 a barrel when the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) opened for electronic trading several hours earlier than usual.

London Brent crude rose 97 cents to to $115.02.

U.S. RBOB gasoline futures outpaced crude gains to rise 5.08 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $2.9050 per U.S. gallon, as traders feared the refining sector could be harder hit.

But oil prices have still barely recovered from last month's over three-month low of nearly $111, with buyers cautious even after the steep slump from mid-July's record high $147.27.

"This is definitely a dangerous storm but I think most of the market is in a wait-and-see mode, waiting to see (if there are) disruptions to oil facilities and pipeline infrastructure before they make a big move," said Gerard Burg, a commodities analyst at the National Bank of Australia in Melbourne.

"Investors are a lot more cautious now, given the general bearish sentiment in the market."

Energy companies are taking no chances, shutting down more than 96 percent of U.S. Gulf oil production and 82 percent of natural gas output as of Sunday afternoon, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said. The Gulf normally pumps a quarter of all U.S. production and about 15 percent of its domestic natural gas.

At least nine oil refineries with a combined capacity of 2.2 million bpd were shut down and a half-dozen other refineries had reduced throughput because of the storm. [ID:nN31518910]

The shutdown of key infrastructure, including the Henry Hub delivery point and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, prompted NYMEX on Sunday to declare force majeure on all delivery obligations under its August and September natural gas futures.

Forecasters predicted Gustav will make landfall west of New Orleans around midday on Monday, with top winds expected to be around 200 kph (125 mph), making it a Category 3 storm on the five-step intensity scale. (See [nN31508750] for more details)

GEOPOLITICS, OPEC IN BACKGROUND

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West also lent support to oil prices.

Russia does not want a confrontation with the West but will hit back if attacked, Kremlin leader Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday, a day before EU leaders meet to draft a response to Moscow's actions in Georgia. [ID:nLV125768]

Russia, the world's largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest oil exporter, supplies more than a quarter of Europe's gas needs.

Iran's oil minister said on Sunday $100 a barrel was the lowest acceptable price for crude oil. Iran, the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has said the oil market is oversupplied in recent weeks as oil prices have plunged more than $30 a barrel from their peak.

OPEC meets in Vienna on Sept. 9 to discuss output policy but other member nations have not come out and publicly backed Iran. Venezuela and Ecuador said on Friday that they expect the oil exporters group to maintain current output levels.[ID:nN29457783] (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

Oil price plunges as fears of Gustav devastation recede

By Sean Farrell
Tuesday, 2 September 2008

The price of oil plunged more than $4 yesterday as fears receded that Hurricane Gustav would inflict severe damage on the US oil sector when the storm weakened off the Louisiana coast.


The price of oil had jumped by more than $1 earlier in the day as US offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut down almost entirely ahead of Gustav's expected bombardment of the country's key oil production region.

Gustav weakened to a category two storm as it approached the coast near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, which supports 75 per cent of the Gulf's drilling operations.

US crude fell $4.19 to $111.27 a barrel in afternoon London trading yesterday as concerns about the potential damage from the storm were discounted.

Gustav had been forecast to hit the Gulf as a category four storm in the first test of the country's preparedness since Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc in 2005. Trade in the United States was shut due to the US Labor Day holiday.

London Brent crude fell $4.31 to $109.74 a barrel.

At least 12.5 per cent of total US refining capacity was shut down ahead of the storm and other plants cut rates. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the only US port capable of offloading the biggest oil tankers, halted all operations.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita wrecked more than 100 offshore oil platforms and closed many large refineries for months in the region, which houses a quarter of US oil output and 15 per cent of natural gas output.

Nearly two million people fled the Louisiana coast and more than 11 million residents in five American states were threatened by the storm.

Potential upward pressure on the oil price remains. Iran's oil minister said on Sunday that $100 a barrel was the lowest acceptable price for crude. Iran, Opec's second-largest producer, has said the oil market is oversupplied after prices dropped from July's record high of more than $147 a barrel.

5/09/2008

prices held relatively stable Friday, gaining 35 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange to $106.65 per barrel.

The volatile commodity dropped $3.05 per barrel Thursday, as analysts predict oil will soon fall to less than $100 per barrel.

Heating oil prices fell slightly, down 0.0262 cents to $2.99 per gallon. Reformulated gasoline prices fell 0.0251 cents to $2.6999 per gallon, while natural gas prices rose slightly, up 0.109 cents to $7.46 per million British thermal units.

At the pump, U.S. motorists were paying an average of $3.674 for a gallon of regular, unleaded gasoline, down slightly from Thursday's $3.678, the AAA said. Gasoline prices have fallen from a peak of $4.114 on July 17 but remain well above the price of $2.807 per gallon from a year ago.