Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Nice and sunny here :)

The sea of forex has big waves though.

surfs up!

question for you guru's

below is a copy of a report I get from cmc every day.

it show's cmc clients net fx positions.

eurusd short 10 days held
audusd long 7
gbpusd short 10
gbpjpy long 9
audjpy long 9
eurjpy long 1
eurgbp short 10
usdchf long 10
nzdusd short 10
audnzd long 10

I looked at gbpusd in particular. it's pretty clear to me the trend is up longer term
yet cmc's net client position is the opposite way round. There's no way I'd be wanting to hold a short on that one at the moment over a 10 day period (or frankly any 10 day period over the last few months).

There;s also some additional information that of that average 10 day short position between 95 and 100% is placed short.


Now I know cmc punters don't make money but they can't be that bad surely ?


Have I misinterpreted this? Is my analysis completely wrong? or does this give me hope that i've actually got a chance of making money as i'm trading with the trend rather than trying to fight it ?

I suspect it's the 'it can't go any higher' brigade ........... but it can and it did.

From what I can see, 10 days ago Fiber was as low as 1.44. The shorters are still waiting and hoping.

lot of money being spent trying to keep cable at 2.0700 atm

Is that 10 people? or 10 positions?

It's probably me! I'm short but I keep going long & short

DOLLAR: "The forex market is becoming a ridiculous place, as the Yen and
the US dollar rise violently relative to the EUR and the other major
(and minor) currencies one or two days in a row, and then fall equally
violently the day thereafter," complains Dennis Gartman of the Gartman
Letter, no doubt echoing the sentiments of many a trader and
model-driven fund player. Traders note the sharp turnaround in
carry-trades seen Tuesday and Wednesday after a rout on Monday that saw
funds bailing out of carry longs "with both hands," as one trader
described it, only to see currency pairs such as Aussie-yen,
sterling-yen and others rebound viciously as US stocks recovered from
what is described as "an oversold" position. One equities player was
quoted in the NYTimes today as advising investors to shop for a neck
brace, fearing more whipsaw in those markets. FX traders should probably
heed the same advice!

Provided by: Market News International

I guess it all depends whether you are making money or not ;-)

Watching the Dow closely and buying the yen ;)
Looks to me like it's struggling to stay positive.

Nikkei futures down 100.

Interesting point there choccy....I have found that many index traders ignore forex moves....There seems more awareness of the interaction of stocks and currencies from this side of the water....

Still there wont be anyone left there soon.....Boyse leaving left a big hole....many others here now..

D,

What's happened to Boyse? I asked the other week and Big Al said that he was having an extended summer holiday but the suggestion was that he'd be back soon.

Great signals again today, Chocopops.

:o)

Have been having a little play with Euro JPY over the past 2 days and very nice moves, started on paper but now real, small positions. Work unfortunately means I've missed most of the moves but still profitable. Will post a 15 min cable chart later because today was a wonderful display of S&R for anyone new to Fx. Not touting myself as a guru at all - too much of a novice to claim that!!!

Been on Euro/Yen myself for a little while now Seymour and really enjoying it - had my best day for a long time today so will continue to keep my eye on it.

Well done Seymour. Are the new glasses helping you to see things more Clearly?

:o)

For all you cable traders, pull up a 4 hr chart and run the fibs from the high on the 9th to the low on the 12th.
The 38.2 contained it on the first rise with a pull back to the 23.6 and today's run up stopped at the 50.0 retrace.
The fibs are a powerfull tool in forex

cloudbase, also an R1 pivot point in the vicinity at 830, like it when they cluster together

Something's certainly helping Hils :-) Don't think it's the glasses.

goforit, indeed, pivots and fibs very strong together

Not sure how well this is going to show up but here goes:

Yellow lines are fibonacci, red are my own to show S&R: