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Thanks very much Bones. Sounds perfect. Cheap at twice the price by the sound of it.

Harlosh, I wasn't laying the draw I was laying Blackburn. A Chelsea win or a draw would give me a profit. As long as the match progressed towards either one of those outcomes I could green up.

Sorry Kajman, mis understood you. My aplogies.

Kajman

surely the problem with that is that your profit is on the blackburn line, so when you are greening up you are greening up at a very high price - ie say you are 100 on a blackburn win but blackburn are 50 to win then you only green up for 2 whereas if you had been backing chelsea you would be greening up at 1.2 or so.

Fundamentalist

I layed at 8.6, for a 20 win, risking losing 150 only if Blackburn had scored first and had looked like winning for the whole of the game, a risk I thought was worth taking :-)

As it happened I greened up after 5 minutes and took a 14 profit.

I thought that there is always a reasonable chance of a draw which was why I didn't back Chelsea. But I'm interested in other peoples tactics.

Kajman,

The risk of losing 150 in order to gain 20, in my opinion doesn't seem very logical.

I can't remember the exact odds to back Chelsea but it was approx 1.6. Backing the draw was about 3ish. Rather than just laying Blackburn at 8.6 surely it would have been wiser to have put a proportion of your 150 risk on backing both Chelsea and the Draw.

Your risk/reward ratio would be much better!

Kajman

You risked 150 to win 14.

If you had backed Chelsea to lose 150 you would have backed 250 at 1.6. When Chelsea scored i guess the price became about 1.3 (may have been lower) which would have been 75 (250*(1.6-1.3)) to green up at 1.3 giving you a profit of 57.70.

Was the risk of the draw worth the difference between 14 and 57.70 in profit?

bakko

I don't understand you there. Assuming that Chelsea win was 1.6 and the draw was 3 , then I can't get a win of 20 on either result coming in by splitting 150 between them.

The best I can do is to put 98 on Chelsea and 52 on the draw.
Then if Chelsea win, I get 59 - 52 = 7
or if a draw, I get 104 - 98 = 6.

Fundamentalist, I'm not following the maths here it must be the hour :-)

I was willing to risk 150, so if I did it by backing Chelsea I would have put on 150 for a possible 90 profit. Greening up at 1.3 (stake of 188) would have netted about 35. But only if Chelsea scored first.

But because I had a win on the draw situation if the match was goal-less for a long time then the odds would drift slowly towards a draw giving me a greening up opportunity , not the case if I had just backed Chelsea.

i happened to note the prices at about the time Kaj must have placed his bet ..

Blackburn 8.7

Chelsea 1.56

Draw 4.1

Kajman

sorry

my numbers are wrong - your right - too late to be doing numbers lol

F, no problem I usually have to do the sums several times before I get them right. :-)

ROFL, Very funny.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/funny_old_game/robbo/4229655.stm

Kajman,

Just been trying to work out something using the above odds. Your right in that its not possible to get a net gain of 20 on both lines. I'm glad that the result came in for you but I wouldn't have wanted you to have lost 150 for a gain of only 20.

Hope this helps.

All this maths has now put my head in a spin! The grey matter hasn't woken up yet!

And here's me thinking you read 'Advanced Quantum Physics' in your spare time Scrip.

Morning all - Just got up, greened up on the FTSE 10/11 intra within 20 seconds of loggong on! (Scrip if you need a hand with your course let me know)!!! lol

France currently 1.04/1.05 to beat Scotland tommorrow. Lowest odds i've seen for a two team event.

Scottish rugby is in a mess at the moment so can't see them winning but might be some value in laying France at those odds. Scotland may have a strong first half before they crumble.

chartist - I don't do that much on the financials as the bots are pretty efficient and the liquidity is poor compared to what it used to be. Just looked at the 11-12 FTSE intraday. 12k traded, On a horse race you generally get 500k-1.5m in 10 mins, that is were a lot of money is.

Harlosh,

Thanks for Fra/Scot odds.

This is definitely an opportunity to lay off a fat amount on France with virtually no risk at all. Hopefully, Scotland may hold them off even if its for the first 15mins!! They may even score first!!

Looks like a good opportunity. During the Rugby world cup Wales vs England had similar odds and it drifted a lot by half time when the match was still tied.