The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

What makes you say that, hlyeo98?

In Friday's London Evening Standard the Business Section carried an article about Russia's New revolution. A side section entitled 'Oil and Gas is now the talk of the town' stated that Lukoil holds a contract for the West Qurna field in Iraq. It goes onto say that Lukoil holds 8% of its assets overseas and wants to increase that figure to 18% in the next decade.

I am not sure we have fully considered the Russia aspect on this thread. Please enlighten me if I am missing something? Are they a player in these contract discussions?

John

i am interested on the political spin aspect of live, with the awarding of contracts and agreements to mine oil etc etc. i would hazard a guess that there is a great pressure being placed on ministers and politicians alike to not only get things going but create a future based on their old friend oil, and their new found friends. Election round the corner. Whilst we want the RNS, so do the ministry of oil. the russian thing has shed light onto the need to build bridges locally so lets not forget neighbouring ties will be built aswell. once the ministry are in the flow, lets hope PET get a contract to sign. There could be indicactive news from neighbouring countries oil companies being awarded start point contracts.

any commentss marti

I believe Lukoil have a contract in Iraq and they stated they would sue if the contract was broken. I also believe Pet made reference to that statement concerning Block 6. I still hold at Pets high but am concerned at the deferal of the Subba + Luhais contract. I have read the Iraq oil fields have not been updated since the first Iraqi war so there has to be work for small companies whatever that is. I think when I was reading a little of the Haliburton fiasco and their no bid contracts I came across, the Iraqi Oil Ministry would require a minimum of three bids per contract which I believe has been brought up by various writers, which is the part that niggles me. I assume that three tenders were not on the table when the Subba contract was deferred because surely not all 3 would be short of the required info needed by the IOM so would I be overly optimistic to believe Pet had won the contract but had to be tidied up. Conversely have the tenders submitted not been prepared in a professionally detailed manner ie. Are Pet qualified/experienced for the contracts tendered. Are the other tenderers out in Iraq? Its hard to believe from past perfomance of Pet their are no leaks. z

As I reported earlier I sent an e-mail to the author of the Dow Jones/Newswire article
Here is his response -


From : hassan hafidh
Sent : Friday, October 29, 2004 5:58 PM
To : ****************@hotmail.com
Subject : RE: petrel resources and Iraq


I think they are now considering sharing agreements. this has been spelt out by oil minister Thamer al-Ghadhban at a recent news conferene he held in Baghdad. because they don't have enough cash. as you know donors have not yet met their money commitment towards Iraq.


regards

hassan



From: **************************@hotmail.com>
To: hafidh8@hotmail.com
Subject: petrel resources and Iraq
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 13:14:54 +0000

Also do you feel in light of new offers being submitted that the Iraqi oil ministry are now considering risk sharing agreements with Petrel Resources rather than the Cash contracts that were first reported?

thanks for your opinions

------------------------------------------------------------

Anyone seen any Sunday Newspaper reports on Petrel?


Tokyo

Interesting email. I would like hlyo98 to expand upon this post above. Its really not very helpful have have that kind of post without any backup!

107606/Sandrew: I agree, however unless hlyo98 has some insider brief from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil they have already stated that an announcement will be made in November! So what has changed in the last few days?

I have not yet sighted any mention of PET in the Sunday's has anyone else?

What I did read was that OPEC members have not restated their Oil reserves since they all agreed on the level of export quotas some 10 years or so ago. So as we all know that over that time Oil has continued to flow to consumer nations, those reserves must have shrunk. All the more reason to have a sizeable portion of any portfolio in Oil production companies....and in exploration companies like PET and one or two others.

zitblot et al

Its easy to miss really significant quotes on an active bb like PET's if one is not visiting each day. (Post 827) Dexter repeated an article from oilbarrel.com re Horgan quotes of 30/9/04 before he went into Iraq and purdah! Three tenders were submitted by Petrel in April through June. An earlier post mentions competitive bids from a Turkish and an Arab oil company (hazy recollections) so it would appear that everything has been done decently and in order. Horgan, well he would do being Irish, sings the praises of the Irish Oil Minister. Leaving aside the southern oil field, it appears that the two fields subject to contract negotiations total about 1 billion barrels: sounds a lot but less than 1% of known Iraqi capacity. Interesting conclusion is that the Minister may be focusing on two significant but not too significant fields: thus appropriate for a relatively small player, but not too small given the PRE sister company; this should then downplay the risk element and lead up to larger projects.

(Post 739) Tokyo quoted the Economist Intelligence Unit report of 20/10/04. "Petrel ... is poised to win the first major oilfield development contract to be tendered by the Iraqi Ministry of Oil ...". Note key words: 'tendered', 'poised to win'. Follows up to say: "...a reward for persistence ...smaller companies stand a good chance of picking up work because of reluctance of major oil firms.." "Petrel announced on 27th Sept that it had been called to Baghdad for 'an urgent and direct discussion to finalise all technical and commercial matters' relating to a contract to develop the Khurmala Dome oilfield in the Kirkuk region". Improved progress since June with appointment of Ghadban (one of Iraq's most experienced oil officials) as minister.

This bb has been talking serious well-founded turkey with well-balanced reporting plus an odd-bit of feverish speculation. Still high risk but I am sleeping well at night with something of a warm anticipatory glow and growing appetite for that turkey well berore Xmas!

Tokyo: went to see The Woman in White yesterday. I reckon the best Lloyd Webber yet and a must for your visit to London at Christmas - mention it because you do need to get the bookings made. Amazing mix of cinema and theatre.

Eric

Some great posts above and i agree only invest what you can afford to lose. I bought well above 1 so have quite a to lose but know the risks.

Im not in business so do not really have a clue how it works but had a thought (owh!); lets the say its agreed and they now are dotting the i's and crossing the t's. How many peole will know apart from DH. I presume solicitors, secretaries, consultants and advisors would be involved. Knowing human nature would not be impossible to advice family and friends (though illegal i presume) to get in and have punt. Should we be looking for sudden rise in buying. Sorry if i sound a little niave. Perhaps the more informed could enlighten me.

Kivver: In answer to your post on this angle...a lot of people will be involved in drawing up the paperwork etc, but only when ink flows on the contract can anyone be sure. Now it is what happens betwen the signing and the consequent RNS telling us that a deal has been agreed that will be interesting. Suggest you closely watch Time & Sales data, and if the volume of trades increases and the SP starts moving up you will have a good idea that something possitive is afoot, equally the converse is the case. Hope that helps.

Morning all,
Just found this on another bb,might be of interest.

Dexter



Iraq to award oilfield development contacts in November: official
Dubai (Platts)--1Nov2004/110 am EST/610 GMT
Iraq has plans to award oilfield development contracts to multinational oil
companies in November, the head of the State Company for Oil Projects Ahmed
al-Shammaa told Platts Monday. The contracts are for the development of the
Khormala Dome in northern Iraq near Kirkuk and Hemrin located northeast of
Baghdad. "We expect to award the contracts in November and sign them in
December," Shammaa said. The contracts were discussed during a meeting between
oil companies and Iraqi oil officials, including a delegation from the State
Oil Marketing Organization, during a three-day meeting in Amman last week. He
also said there was some expectations that oil field development contracts in
the south could be finalized before the end of the year. Iraq's oil ministry
had received in August separate offers for technical studies on the Rumaila in
the south and Kirkuk oilfields in the north. The ministry had expected to
award the contact in late September to one of 14 companies bidding on the
deal, but security concerns pushed back the contacts award date indefinitely.

dexter01: Good post: Platts - are a very reputable information source. So we can take it as read that the contracts will be awarded in this month and signed next (December). So we just have to be patient now! John

Thanks John,
I see this Dow Jones article has made it into the Tehran Times, so we might now get the British press to pick up on it and start more fishing .




Iraq to sign 2 oil deals with intl companies next month: official


BAGHDAD (Dow Jones) - Iraq will sign oil contracts with international companies next month for the development of two oil fields, a senior Iraqi oil official said Thursday.

Head of the State Company for Oil Projects, Ahmed al-Shammaa, said two upstream contracts for the development of the Khormala Dome, in northern Iraq near Kirkuk, and Hemrin, northeast of Baghdad, and were discussed in Amman this week with international energy firms.

"In light of these discussions, companies will submit new offers concerning the development of the two fields and we are expected to sign contracts next month," al-Shammaa told Dow Jones Newswires.

Al-Shammaa, who headed Iraq's negotiating team in Jordan, declined to name the companies involved in the talks.

Irish independent Petrel Resources is known to be one of the companies bidding for the contracts.

Last week, Iraq's Oil Minister Thamer al-Ghadhban said the two contracts would be ready to sign soon.

He said a third upstream contract for Subba & Luhais in southern Iraq has been delayed as the technical and economic aspects of the deals weren't yet ready.

Production from all these fields is expected to reach 300,000-350,000 barrels a day within two years from the start of development.

Oil ministry officials have estimated investment needed in the fields will amount to around $500 million to $600 million.

Last year, Ghadhban said the ministry would start to develop these fields this year.





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well that links nicely with wind and sails. 14 other companies hey, tokyo has gone quite, bet he wishes his latest bundle hadn't been so easly available.
or just maybe he believes that he had better not press another key till it goes skywards and his efforts turn into bank notes. Personally having watched him chase his tail for weeks on end, i for one an buckling up and checking my groin is made of steel.

Tokyo lets take this moment to draw breathe and state IMO i am now glad that i made the effort cose i'm in and staying in.

There was a 100.000 buy in the last 24 hours. no reply expected

watcher

Am I reading Dexter's post(902)correctly? The 14 other companies relate to the other fields and not our contracts....correct?

Tokyo
Hope you are well.

watcher

Since you don't wish to have reply from Tokyo, allow me to answer you.

Tokyo is by far one of the best poster I have come cross on bbs and a sensible investor at that - go against his advice and you will lose your knickers!

And please don't compare your drivel with his well argued posts!

Bahouse (Tokyo). Shame, my first post is directed to a tosser!

Hey Watcher

Before you get attacked anymore, I should state that I didn't see your post as negative or an attack against me (although bahouse thanks for the back up while I was sleeping), back to watcher I saw your post as mearly just something we were all thinking, when I read it for the first time a little feeling of panic rose up through my body too, but after looking at it more carefully it seemed to be talking about two different sets of contracts.

Before I explain, let me say this, anyone who wants an answer from me, must remember that Tokyo is 9 hours ahead of the UK, I'll try to answer any questions I can, providing I researched it before, it helps that we all keep this thread about the facts!!!

Now onto the other 14 bidders -

Iraq's oil ministry had received in August separate offers for technical studies on the RUMAILA in the south and Kirkuk OILFIELDS(notice the plural) in the north. The ministry had expected to award the contact in late September to one of 14 companies bidding on the deal, but security concerns pushed back the contacts award date indefinitely.


Firstly Petrel has NO interest in the RUMAILA area, the part that probably scared us all the most (and yes even me) was see the Kirkuk name there, as that is of course the 1st tender, although stated in the article is "Iraq's oil ministry had received in August separate offers for technical studies", just one quick look at Petrel's website would show you that "The Kirkuk tender to develop the Khurmala dome will be submitted by the end of March", so PET's tenders were submitted in at the end of March and are for Development not techinical studies, add this to the e-mail I received from David Horgan about other companies not being able to legally join in the tender process(as the article states the Iraqi ministry received tenders for these back in August), and it clearly shows that these tenders are for techinical studies on another oil field in Kirkuk, PET's tender is to develop the Khurmala dome. There have been so many articles written about this tender process by all the financial and investing newsletters/websites, etc, and they only ever quoted three 3 companies as making it into the 2nd stage of the tendering process, now out of thin air there are supposed to be 14, that would be completly illegal, The Iraqis are going to keep these tenders above board.


To summarise, YES I am very happy with my investment, and will actually be buying more on Wednesday (the absolute final top up). Other articles have stated that the tenders are to be awarded by the end of this month, from all the information available, and by PET being sworn to secretcy to the Iraqi oil ministery - hence the news black out. The only company we have ever heard of having anythig to do with the 3rd stage of the tender process (the final stage) is PET, the other companies the minister refused to name I think were the Jordanian company which actually have the JV with PET, hence I think they have won both of the tenders.



So watcher I am drawing breathe, and in my humble opinion I am VERY glad I'm staying in.


Tokyo

p.s. I checked and they are indeed made of steel for the moment at least

Following Tokyo clarifying your post, Please accept my apologies Watcher!

Thanks Tokyo!