NETeller - NLR - 3.15
Thought i would start a new thread following on from
hawick - new issue looks very special - not to steal the thunder from
hawick but just to highlight the company name to those not already in to this
potential blockbuster.
Those of us who are following NETeller know the background and have been
active with postings,for newcomers i strongly sugest viewing the
( new issue looks very special posting )the content will speak for itself.

Brief overview of NETeller
The company handles online cash transactions across the globe
on 21st oct gained fsa approval to operate as a regulated e-money issuer
and will passport the regulated status to all 25 EU member states
it has over 1 million clients rising by 2000 number each day
1500 online merchants and processed over $1.5 billion in 2003
pre tax profit is estimated to be 29 million to dec 04 rising to
40 million next year
per currently 20 to dec 04 falling to 11.5 which is low for sector
brokers have been raising forcasts on a regular basis
share price has risen over 50% since launch earlier this year
new markets emerging constantly,asia has the potential for supergrowth
online casinos are creating enormous profits
given all this - cash generative - huge market - fsa approval
infastructure in place to handle growth, profits accrue to bottom line
the market force is behind it with good relative strength
all put together it is hard to argue against this has the potential
to be a blockbuster over the year ahead

regards HUSTLER

Well it needs a kick up the ass Hustler lets hope this does the trick.

cheers GF.

dow and nas comp up at close nearly 1%
hope for a good start later today we need it
this fin year at week 3 sucks so far
battered everywhere
got to get going or got to get tough
but good vibes for the morning.
regards HUSTLER

In spite of positive notes all round and evident enthusiasm to hold for long-term propsects, I suspect current retracement will eventually reach the support level provided by the August up-trend line (cutting today's date at 450) somewhere between below 500p before moving up again into a more settled trading range between 550 and 650 until enough good news sends it back up over 700 again. Of course good news issued soon (Eastern Bank JV?) could accelerate this re-growth, avoiding the full retracement.

This is remaarkably close to my buy limit of 475 I mentioned sometime the previous side of its recent head and shoulders.

Also the chart confirms to my current theory that when a steep initial rise with no historical support/resistance structure falls back through the 25dma (in this case at 650, or even the 13dma if you want to play it really tight at nearer 690), it's a pretty good signal to take probably full profits and regroup to buy back in lower. This would have worked for BFC, DOO, FOGL, ASC and will probably work for SEO.

I'm starting to consider where I will gather fresh funds from, in case I am called upon to honour my pledge to buy in at <= 475!

SD

Evolution change add stance to BUY.

Recent weakness provides buying opportunity
The fall in share price is not a reflection of trading weakness but a likely
reappraisal of valuation. We think the price is now looking attractive again
given the number and variety of upside opportunities. We move to BUY.
Neteller (NLR.L)
Price/Target: 540p/725p
BUY (from ADD)

NLR has fallen 15% since we initiated coverage on April 8 with an ADD (see note,
A narrow window of opportunity). This compares to a fall of 1% suffered by the
basket of companies that are exposed the US online gaming sector. There does
not appear to be any fundamental reason for the collapse as

1/ trading
momentum remains strong (the outlook statement accompanying the FY04 results
triggered upgrades as Q105 sign ups increased by a better-than-expected 69%
YoY) and 2/ the threat of the US enacting legislation permitting online gambling
looks more unlikely than ever (US suppliers of eWallet solutions are precluded
from competing in NLRs space owing to the US prohibitionist stance). With
regard to the latter, the WTO ruled on April 7th that US prohibitionist tendencies
did not represent a restraint of trade (see note on Sportingbet, Mixed news from
the WTO on April 8th). Furthermore, the Senate voted against North Dakotas
attempts to regulate online Poker.
NLR poses valuation challenges given the trade offs in assessing excellent near
term prospects (we forecast 107% EPS growth in FY05 and 44% in FY06) and
medium/long- term uncertainties surrounding US legislation.

Our DCF derived fair
value of 725p attempts to factor in this uncertainty by collapsing EBITDA margins
from 56% to 36% by 2008 which leads to flat FCF between 2006 and 2008.
However, we understand certain investors concerns regarding DCFs.
An alternative view is to consider the following question; At what rating would
NLR look cheap? We think a fair answer is a PEG of 0.25, which equates to a
FY06 PE of 11x rating and a trigger price of 500p. The current rating is 12x, not
quite bargain basement, but not far off either.

We move to BUY as we believe it is possible that the trigger price could rise
owing to several sources of upgrades; 1/ we think that the core US facing gaming
orientated business could outperform our numbers (again), 2/ the management
are looking to tie up a JV with a bank which would cross sell products to NLRs
1.5m (and growing) user base, 3/ geographic diversification (Asia and Europe), 4/
product diversification (for example, it could enter the P2P money transfer
business that is inhabited by the likes of Western Union (NLR charges 2% vs
Western Unions 11%) and 5/ NLR is well placed to make enhancing acquisitions to acieve some or all of the above.

The sources of upside noted above are all core to NLRs strategy and we have
been encouraged so far by the management teams delivery of the targets it has
set itself since IPO. We think that some of these upside opportunities could
materialise in the next 3-4 months, hence our move to BUY.

cheers GF.

Up 9p now. (Still incorrect on stockwatch)

stockdog - looks like your time is approaching fast!

Cheers, Madison

I watching and waiting!

The Spider

This is taking another battering today,did'nt think id see it under 500p..JB..

Interestingly (or not as the case may be), if you draw a straight line from the start of the rise (approx 200p)through the troughs, you come out with about 450p in todays terms. Clearly SD is a technical supremo!! I will definately buy at 450 if it gets that low.

rgrds
gk

Gallick - thanks for the compliment, but remember always BYOS (be your own supremo!)


As per my post 877, I am in exact agreement with your 450p as where the uptrend crosses today's date, but I estimate, if the SP is going to meet this line at all, it will meet it a few days hence at nearer 475 which is where I nailed my petard to the hoisting mast (to strangle two metaphors with one stone!) all those weeks ago - foolish boy!

I'm casting around for something to sell, in case I am called upon to perform.

SD

Huge buy of 250,000 shares at 4.75...stockdog...was that you?!?! :0)

I added a few--I have a feeling they won't stay this low for long. Who can afford 250000-lucky chap!

Well I am in at 465 - did nt expect to see them this low - so am averaging down.

Would prefer that they rise now - pretty please

Baza

Wooo, this is hard to watch though....

I purchased in at 2.20ish but sold out at 6.50ish and repurchased at 5.90ish... Should have waited longer to get back in :(

Well u certainly did well first time round - I am starting to wonder whether I have made a shrewd decision - or a crap one?

B

Doesn't look pretty to buy today, IMHO. Market's just too dodgy, need to see it stabilise a bit first.

sd - I think U are right - crap decision of mine - should have stayed out.

Baz

Guys dont despair - one has to see the comments last week /early this week on this board -not a lot has changed as far as NLR - it is the market generaly playing up. Till yesterday my ave 5.86 - now after adding on today 5.22. Going to soldier on and hope all turns.
Best wishes p/271

Wish I'd picked up stockdog's analysis earlier - another who bought back in at 650p, getting the timing wrong, and then decided to hold on the Evolution advice. The thing that really surprises me is that the shorters have had it all there own way today. sp down 54p with buys outweighing sells. I reckon that some 800K of the sells were shorts - round figures sold at strategic points thoughout the day. Its almost as if the MMs wanted to get the process over with - or catch the shorters with their pants down with a sharp rise tomorrow. Any explanations? What sayest thou, gf?

Eric

Still waiting to get back in thankfully. But really can't work out where this is going to stop. Surely it can't be too much further.