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Looks like a new downward trend has begun.

Short Cable from 1.8373

For those on EuroFX,

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Tuesday's bounce in the euro versus the dollar is just that, a bounce. Sell into any euro strength.

Short-term, the euro is oversold. So it's only natural that it should claw back some of its losses since February's all-time high.

Wednesday saw it as strong as $1.2149, compared with Tuesday's $1.1978. It thus nearly reached my forecast level between $1.2180 and $1.2250 where on Monday I suggested selling it, with a stop loss above Friday's intraday high at $1.2380.

But if my bearish view is right this stop-loss level shouldn't be reached. It's more likely to decline below this week's low at $1.1978 over Easter and probably get as far as $1.1848 - the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September to February uptrend.

From a fundamental point of view this ties in with the current rate hike optimism in the U.S., which should continue to fuel the dollar's strength.

Currently, though, the $1.2054 to $1.2000 support area, might once again hold and lead to a short-term continuation higher for a couple of days or so. But once breached, it should act as strong resistance instead.

Selling into strength is a small risk when compared with the potential profits if it falls below the $1.1978 area, which I expect it will soon.

The euro was trading at $1.2095 at 0943 GMT Wednesday

Tellon did you get stopped out

No, My stops at 420 & 408

Stopped out, once again the market has shown me that I know nothing..

MPC today -- going up?

morning mm;
concensus on blooomberg, on 45 analysts surveyed
18 say up .25
27 say no change.

no one, apart from me, considering .5,
but unlikely.

ftse thinking no change
cable pretty stable.

Tough call. I think that most people are staying sidelined atm. Not just because they're not sure on the rate call itself, but also because it's immediately ahead of a long weekend and a lot of people are already on holiday. The chart isn't giving much away either, imo, except that there's a possibility of more upside but upwards momentum is exhausting. Fundamentally $1.84 is probably fair value, given the news currently in the round.

On bloomberg now there saying about increasing 50 bases points.. Looks like someone is on your side Beeble..

Tellon: I was trying to read the big bank sell off last night -- looked like a leak to me . . .

cable now looking overpriced
no pos atm for me though

So it was leaked yesterday hence the bank sell-off.

IG Index just robbed me, I sold at 18375 with close to be a 18330. Would have made me a nice tidy profit. They opened my order at 18326. Obviuolsy got stopped out in about 2 seconds with a 27pip loss. If I wanted to get orders filled at market price id use futures contracts..

Just thought id share my expiriance

Too many sharks for my liking. Staying out till after the holiday. Direction should be clearer then and you'll be able to get the decent moves on volume.

The shops are more inviting atm.

Hilary did you just call to wish me happy Easter ?

No, I called to say that I'd given Manolo your address so he could send you the bill for my birthday pressie.

:o)

He's not called see you soon ;-) shoes only !

Hil: so when's the birthday?

It's not until August, Derek, but I just wanted to ensure that Boyse was up-to-speed with my pressie.

:o)

Up-to speed ;-)