Bioprogress is a stock I have been in and out of quite a few times since it floated in May but not much mention here on the Investors' Room. Does anyone else follow this stock. I see it is up 1.5p today and a few good buyers seem to have appeared.

Personally I'll be surprised to see 90p not with all the news that has come out which is surely going to improve margins. if it does me thinks it won't stay there for long. All IMHO.

Copy of post from ADVFN
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paulk - 2 Sep'04 - 18:42 - 59775 of 59776


Why's everybody getting excited because the price has fallen 5p???

It's risen by 50p in a very short space of time.

That's how it works. Some days up, some days down, but as long as the trend is up why worry?

One post by The Count hasn't done anything to the price. The price has dropped because of an RNS that was little understood and therefore people panick and sell, as well as the T-traders closing positions.

Man is one of the biggest hedge fund companies in the world and certainly the biggest listed hedge fund here in the UK.

Hedge funds short stocks that are overvalued and buy stocks that are undervalued. It shoulb't be automatically assumed that the position has arisen because of CFD's etc.

Man increased their holding in BPRG from 3% to over 4% in a very short space of time. This doesn't strike me as anything other than an investment by one of their funds in an undervalued stock which after thorough research, they have decided is a good solid investment.

Sometimes things are that simple.
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TA has turned predominantly bearish..still predict a fall to 90p mark

Joe arsehole..finished at 99p...stupid dick!!!

My only comment is "buy the dips". It's on the up overall and so what if it drops to 85-90p.

Can't understand people - bitch during a downtrend they should have been well out of and then bitch during an uptrend during a natural pullback.

There's some right muppets about. Gawd!

Thanks Nematode for your very articulate comments. I'll continue to do my own research. I sold out earlier last week at 105.5 and I'll very happily buy back when this pulls back to 90p...if indeed it does. Either way I'm ambivalent because I was out of out with a 50% profit before the pullback. My view is still that it will reach the 90p level on a continued pullback in the absence of any new news...not bitching just stating my genuine point of view....buying the dips on any holding is a legitimate and profitable strategy. We'll see if I'm right in going short or not but in any case this company's stock will continue to move up over time I'm sure so good luck with your investment.

I was labouring under the clearly mistaken opinion that the objective of this thread is to provide honest assessments of where we each feel the stock is moving. Obviously it's all about posting only positive assessments.

joehargan1, Are you a day trader? cos you sound like one. However, I do agree with your medium to long term view.

"but in any case this company's stock will continue to move up over time I'm sure"

Al,

You said 'my only comment is' and then went onto make two more!!! LOL

I should imagine this share must be a Trader's dream, loads of volatility and I have to agree with Joe that if I was trading from a Chart perspective I would probably have shorted over the last few days. It will be interesting to see what happens next week. Personally I am 'invested' so will hope for a steady rise over the months to come.

Hope the North Sea weather is being kind, only place I have ever been sea sick!!

Regards

PTH

With the announcement from Man...do we think this is someone with
a large CFD position that Man have covered in the market?

Odd trades right now..

98.5p today!

pth

I have always been rather verbose! ;-)))

Lovely out here. Won't last long though.

I hear the verdict is out today. Anyone confirm?

what verdict?

I assume the SEO crap.

100p today

Madman. No, the verdict isnt out yet.

The verdict is fairly irrelevant IMO.

I tend to agree its irrelevant to the long term prospects.

watch out next week when aim shares are bundled into adr's for the nas listing.Long termers hold fire,you will be rewarded come 3rd week of sept when nas listing is filed.Wish you all much prosperity.

Amongst the c**P on ADVFN sometimes there is a gem this from Mizmas

Advice from the Gurus

Since I am certainly not a guru, I can comment on what we should make of the flurry of rumour and speculation this week. Think of this post as a summary of where we now are.

I am going to split the post into two parts: company developments & market perception. Often the two are not in line with each other.

Company matters

BIOTEC


This seems a straightforward good news story, with the likelihood of lots more good news to come. We will get an update from Colgate (and possibly BPRG) on sales of Max-Fresh. This product is important because it raises BioTec's profile. We will get some news on the yeast-packaged Nicotine strip development - but not yet. There is a good chance, but no certainty, of completly new news on WAFERTAB - specifically the proposed JV.

There is also the bad news. All companies have their share of setbacks (for example the fire regs issues that prohibited development at March). If shareholders are lucky these will be hidden behind good news and seem like merely useful changes of direction.

The Hurricanes in Florida do provide some bad news. They have undoubtedly slowed down developments at BioTec. Having all your staff evacuate their homes 3 times in one month (since Ivan, though likely to miss Tampa, will nevertheless very likely cause another evacuation) does not make for smooth running. How much production has been lost? Could be anything from 3 days to 3 weeks. They may be able to make up any short-fall with higher throughput at other times. We shall see. Ivan provides the possibility of dramatic bad news and worry, if it strikes directly at Tampa, this however is unlikely and we will know more by Monday.

SWALLOW

All the obvious speculation for the last through weeks has been around SWALLOW. We know that Wyeth, and possibly Cardinal, are going to use it. If BPRG gain entitlement over Patent 1 and therefore control of RF sealing there is much speculation that Cardinal will make some sort of move to protect their future InGel markets - maybe buy SWALLOW outright. Even if they gain only joint entitlement to Patent 1 there will be a settlement with SEO which must result in new income for BPRG.

I see the relationship between SWALLOW and RF sealing as this. For non-gelatin liquid-fill encapsulation there are three viable methods: XGEL/SWALLOW, HPMC and starch. (InGel - Cardinal/Scherer's new venture, uses starch. For example www.encapdrugdelivery.com uses HPMC). XGEL is technically superior to normal HPMC in that it has a better oxygen barrier, and has many advantages over wet starch. I would dearly like some informed cost/benefit comparison of these three techniques.

RF sealing however promises (it is a new technology not yet taken to production) faster production times for any of these materials.

It is clear, from the 6 figure option payment, that Wyeth want SWALLOW and theat they are worried about other potential buyers. All this validates the persistant rumours that SWALLOW will sell for a good price.

SEPTUM

All is quiet on this front at the moment. We know that Glaxo has been looking at SEPTUM. We do not know whether it will license, or when. Bulls of XGEL will assume that all XGEL technologies will be licensed and any delay is just Pharmas taking their time. However there is no guarantee that this will happen. There are competitive technologies, and we do not have a clear idea of the relative merits of SEPTUM. Still, BioProgress seems confident that they will get a license, and if so this technology is potentially very valuable.

NROBE
This commercialisation, run independently of BPRG by FMC and Farmasierra, is the most difficult to evaluate. Critically, we don't know whether BPRG plans to collect large ongoing profits from the film-supply business. High-margin profits are guaranteed from this for the first 3 years of commercialisation - start 2006 - end 2008. After this point BPRG would be a contract manufacturer with a dominant position - due to its other XGEL activities - in a field open to competition. FMC seem confident that this technology can be marketed, and the technical advantages are clear, but this income stream remains speculative until FMC has sales.

TABWRAP

This one is now simple. We expect further news of Perrigo's commercialisation. we expect news of other, probably product-specific, licenses (3 of the 4 sectors are not licensed at the moment). We still don't know what the eventual takeup of TABWRAP will be, so the level of income (beyond Perrigo) is speculative. But Perrigo alone will provide some good income, which should start in 2005.

Ostomy Bags

These get forgotten, but the whispers are that this is still very much on track. The CS figures suggest 1.2M and 1.8M revenue in 2005 & 2006. (profits are very slightly less, although this is royalty, because of the contracted 10% earn-out) but after these two years margin will be 100%.

The only other figures we have come from Convatec themselves, via IC, and are higher. We will have to wait and see.

Market Perception

First, the bad. BPRG is still a BB favourite, and traders paradise. This means the SP will be subject to sudden swings - up or down - with little warning. the "BB favourite" label makes everyone cautious: can it really represent anything other than a speculative punt when there is so much BB hype driving the SP?

Against this: the long SP decline has taken the shine of the hype. Trading remains, but this can as easily drive the SP lower as higher. We have rumours which I am inclined to believe that there are currently 3 big UK buyers, and many more US buyers lined up for the NASDAQ listing. Certainly the price seems well supported in the 90s.

Will NASDAQ drive the price higher? I would be hopeful, but cautious. The company may look less attractive at SP 1.00 than it did at SP 0.70. GH can hardly say that he regrets the recent dramatic SP increase, and it is certainly deserved, but it may temper demand on NASDAQ.

As it stands, a much higher SP probably requires 2006 earnings estimates greater than given by CS. We have many RNS-sanctioned reasons for expecting this earnings re-rating. The markets will believe it if Brokers Estimates change. This will happen in two ways. US Brokers will come out with their own earnings estimates, and CS may revise upwards the "official" estimates. We know US Brokers are interested, and they do not need to be made company Broker to follow BPRG and give their own estimates.

Short-term? We expect Interims on September 29th, with NASDAQ listing delayed until around the time of the Interims. We expect the Court Case result this month. If positive, it will help the SP - though expectations are running high so this may not be so dramatic. I would be cautious not about content (which I think could be very exciting) but about timing of all the current rumours. The Court case itself could have a Verdict next week, or it could be delayed till later this month. We don't really know. Maybe the real reason for NASDAQ being a week or so delayed, as is rumoured, is to get a Court Verdict out of the way.

There is no guarantee that any of the post-Court Case excitement will happen immediately: most likely Cardinal will need time to negotiate, if they do act. Wyeth are likely to take longer to sign, the bigger their eventual license. We need not expect any information from BPRG while these delicate negotiations are on-going.

So expect even more SP volatility - but with considerable upside.



I realise that this BB, in the absence of news, has become a chat-room for BPRG investors and hangers-on. I have to say that the last 4 days have made me seriously consider no longer posting, except at weekends. The quality of the chat - let alone real debate - has degenerated to the point where much is just unpleasant. I have a long filter-list. I am very tempted, although it is against my principles, to add a few of the regulars (+ aliases) since this blatant SP manipulation, combined with lack of any new content or analysis, makes them pretty useless. I won't name names - since those guilty know well who they are.

Now I have had my whinge - I'll keep quiet about the matter.

Best wishes,
Tom