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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

hilary - 20 Nov 2007 07:33 - 8994 of 11056

Chocopops,

I've had terrible problems with it since I first mentioned it after it had updated a couple of weeks back. For some reason it did something to my firewall and things then started grinding to a halt.

I tried to uninstall McAfee but, unfortunately, it wouldn't even let me do that. I put "uninstall McAfee" into Google yesterday and it pointed me to a removal tool on their website which I downloaded and ran. That did the trick and I then reinstalled McAfee.

Things are a lot better now.

It's nothing to do with AM, as I don't use the PC in question to access this site.

foale - 20 Nov 2007 08:04 - 8995 of 11056

Cable finding buyers....any special reason this am?

CC - 20 Nov 2007 08:17 - 8996 of 11056

dollar weak on back of rumours about tonight's Fed meeting. At least that's all i can find. Seems a bit odd the market can move this much on a rumour but i remember last time when the Fed cut the discount rate it was well leaked before hand - so are the minutes explosive ?

but that doesn't tie in with the eurjpy move so I no understand.

Keeping out now cos I don't understand. Already lost two thirds of yesterday's pips by undisiplined short on eurjpy. all just seems a little odd to me

goforit - 20 Nov 2007 08:32 - 8997 of 11056

foale, looks like a nice upsidedown head and shoulders on the hourly chart.

chocolat - 20 Nov 2007 09:35 - 8998 of 11056

Them's the moves, CC. Glad it wasn't too painful anyway.

FOMC minutes don't normally have too much impact, but I imagine the pot's boiling in anticipation of a lot of stirring.

chocolat - 20 Nov 2007 09:41 - 8999 of 11056

Good job you got sorted, Hils.
This is what I've noticed recently, only related to this board:



I have the icon in the tray now, can't say if I saw it before yesterday.
Not sure if it matters?

CC - 20 Nov 2007 09:45 - 9000 of 11056

Here you go David

Forex - Dollar falls to new euro low as rumours swirl ahead of FOMC
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar weakened sharply against major currencies, falling to new all-time lows against the euro and the Swiss franc, as vague rumours of an emergency meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee added to further speculation that Gulf economies could abandon their dollar peg.

Meanwhile, ongoing fears over the US economy, linked to turbulence in financial markets and a flagging US housing market, provide a longer-term, underlying reason for the dollar's weakness.

Vague rumours have circulated around the market this morning of an emergency meeting of the FOMC, the US Federal Reserve's rate-setting body.

"There were rumours of an emergency rate cut from the Fed tonight in the Asia session, which is likely to keep the dollar in a shaky mood," said Audrey Childe-Freeman at CIBC World Markets.

Mitul Kotecha, head of forex strategy at Calyon, said he hadn't heard anything concrete to back up the rumours.

"I'd be surprised if they held an emergency meeting unless there's a real systemic risk that we're not aware of, a bank going under or something like that," he said.

The minutes to the last rate decision on Oct 31 will be published later today, along with the Fed's latest economic forecasts.

The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point at its Oct 31 meeting and markets will be keen to see how decisive the vote was, with a view to refining the odds of a further cut in borrowing costs in December.

"The FOMC minutes will be pored over for rate friendly intimations today," said Dave Brown at Bear Stearns.

However, a report in today's Financial Times suggests these forecasts will surprise investors by giving a bullish outlook, denting expectations for further reductions in US interest rates.

Meanwhile, dollar-unfriendly sentiment is coming from continued speculation that a group of oil-rich Gulf states, the Gulf Co-operation Council, could decide to abandon their currency pegs to the dollar in the near future.

This speculation was fuelled today by regional newspaper reports that GCC member Saudi Arabia is considering such a move. The United Arab Emirates are openly looking at removing their dollar peg and Kuwait has already done so.


No worries Choccie - it just reminded me how fast things can go wrong by not sticking to a system. Stops are lovely though. Just walk away and find another trade. None of this doubling up business I used to get involved with on stocks. Got it back as re-entered higher up so up a very few pips now and planning next trades.

i am beginning to enjoy FX. I love the way you can map out a potential trade well in advance and just wait and wait until enough things look right before you press the button. Far less of this seat of the pants stuff.

Now where's the usdjpy off to? It looks spooked to me. waiting for say 109.6 but not even sure it's going to present an opportunity for a long when it gets there.

hilary - 20 Nov 2007 09:46 - 9001 of 11056

Choco,

What happens when you double click on the eye? Can you do that and post a screen shot please?

hilary - 20 Nov 2007 09:58 - 9002 of 11056

Choco,

When it's OK it should look something like this.



When there's a problem, the green tick changes to either a yellow or red icon and it invites you to "Fix" those problems.

chocolat - 20 Nov 2007 10:03 - 9003 of 11056

That is the screenshot, Hils - I clicked on the eye with a no entry sign over it.
I think it gives me the option to show all or restricted websites.
And then there's a load of cookie stuff :S

hilary - 20 Nov 2007 10:08 - 9004 of 11056

Do you have the green tick to say you're protected? And do any of the items in the list (Computer & Files, Internet & Network, etc) say that they need attention?

chocolat - 20 Nov 2007 10:13 - 9005 of 11056

Yip - all looks tick-ity boo :)
I don't have a McAfee virtual technician - probably just as well really :S

MightyMicro - 20 Nov 2007 10:16 - 9006 of 11056

I think that eye's looking at your bum, Choccie.

hilary - 20 Nov 2007 10:19 - 9007 of 11056

I think that the problems I had were totally different, Chocopops. Mine said that I had problems which needed fixing then, when I clicked the button to fix them, it wouldn't do anything.

Are you sure that Mr Grumpy hasn't been looking at any porn sites?

:o)

chocolat - 20 Nov 2007 10:24 - 9008 of 11056

From what you said I know yours were Hils - guess I was lucky my yellow eye disappeared as quickly as it did. Heaven help me trying to fix anything!

Thank you for your help Dezza :P

hilary - 20 Nov 2007 10:35 - 9009 of 11056

Choco,

I've been trying to find the bit in McAfee that tells me what's blocked and what's allowed so I could compare against your screenshot. I know it's there somewhere because I found it by accident the other day. Do you think I can find it now?

Why do they make these things so blooming complicated?

chocolat - 20 Nov 2007 10:40 - 9010 of 11056

Sshhh - Dezza thinks we're smart ;)

hilary - 20 Nov 2007 11:05 - 9011 of 11056

Housing starts for October will be made public at the bond market open Tuesday morning. Analysts expect a decline from September, down to 1.175 million from 1.191 million. The report is a measure of residential units on which construction is begun each month. Along with housing starts are building permits, which keep track of permits taken out in order to allow excavation. Analysts expect a decline in building permits as well, down to 1.2 million from 1.261 million. Troubles in the housing market are ongoing, making this report important to investors searching for a bottom in the declining market.

The FOMC minutes from the October 30 - 31 revealed at 2:00 pm ET Tuesday will be of a groundbreaking variety. They represent a shift from a system that has been in place since 1979 of bi annual economic projections spanning two years from the Federal Reserve. However, as announced last week, the FOMC revealed that it will now deliver these projections four times a year and extend the projection horizon from two to three years.

Weekly initial jobless claims, the Michigan Sentiment Review, and crude inventories will all be released Wednesday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, on which the markets will be closed. On Friday there is an early close, scheduled for 2:00 pm ET.

chocolat - 20 Nov 2007 11:09 - 9012 of 11056

Thanks Hils.
So they'll be launching a few mortars then.

And suddenly everything's come to a nail polish moment.
Time for a nice long bubble.

Divetime - 20 Nov 2007 12:02 - 9013 of 11056

A little bit of reading for those nail polishing moments!

Is Economic Terrorism Right
Around the Corner?

By Andrew Gordon
Dear Reader,
I mustve missed the handshake. You know, the one that consigns the U.S. to second-tier economic status.
Ive been looking all over the Internet for a picture of our president shaking hands with one of Chinas leaders. Cant find it anywhere.
Maybe it happened away from the bright lights of the media. But it mustve taken place. How else can you explain the way these two giant economies mesh?
We give China what they want and they return the favor. Its the perfect marriage.
Or is it?
You already know that weve spent ourselves into a big black hole. Debt stinks that goes as much for countries as it does for people.
But as weve learned in the U.S., debt is not such a big deal if you have a cooperative bank willing to continually lend you money to help you pay bills and buy stuff.
Weve also learned that these banks can turn stingy in a heartbeat.
The U.S. has its own cooperative bank. Its called China. Every time we issue debt (our Treasury notes), China steps to the plate. We couldnt ask for a more understanding bank.
China allows us to keep spending. And when we go to the store and spend, we end up buying lots of Chinese goods.
Were Chinas main market. And all our spending allows China to do what is most important to them grow their economy.
Our top priority? Well, its obviously not getting out of debt.
Could it be economic growth, like Chinas? Seems like when the economy is growing, good things happen.
But the thing is, we cant grow unless we spend. Consumer spending fuels two-thirds of our economy.
government is in hoc. And we, as individuals, are also in hoc.
If it werent for China, wed be feeling a lot poorer right now.
Heaven forbid, we might feel compelled to deal with our debt. And theres really only one way to do that.
Get out of debt.
And the only way to do that is to spend less and save more.
And what if we did?
Theres no doubt that economic growth would suffer. There would be more layoffs and fewer raises. In fact, things could get so bad that we could end up spending less and saving less. After all, if youre unemployed, its pretty hard to save.
Thats why our understanding with China gets so little mention anywhere, including economic summits like the G-20 meeting that just took place this past weekend in South Africa.
The falling dollar dominated discussions. And China got a lot of the blame for protecting the unfair advantage its exporters have, thanks to the undervalued Yuan. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said that the Yuan is causing tensions, and Canada's Jim Flaherty said China (and other Asian countries) need to do more.
That may be true, but the much greater unfair advantage is baked into our economic relationship. China is growing their economy on the back of an expanding American debt.
And instead of telling them to stop, our politicians, economists, and Wall Street shake at the thought of China one day refusing to buy our Treasury notes.
Meanwhile, diplomats everywhere are pushing for a stronger Yuan. But maybe the U.S. (if not other countries) should think twice. If a stronger Yuan does manage to cut back Chinese export earnings, the Chinese government in turn may one day have to cut back on the amount of government debt they buy from the U.S.
Then all hell would break loose.
We should never be this dependent on another country, even if its our closest ally.
And as we all know, China is no ally. Nor is it our enemy. It is something in between, which means that we are just as likely to agree as disagree on an issue.
We have opened ourselves to economic blackmail and the opening is getting bigger, not smaller.
If you think our interests and Chinas are destined to align more closely, maybe this is not such a big deal.
But from Taiwan to the chase for dwindling resources to geopolitical competition in Asia, Africa and South America, our interests diverge. I dont see that changing anytime soon.
As investors in China, we tend to think that all the risks come from an overheated market and an economy where graft and gross inefficiencies go hand-in-hand.
Investors ignore, at their own peril, that our economic relationship with China is plainly said rotten to the core.
Good Investing,

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