Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Them's the moves, CC. Glad it wasn't too painful anyway.

FOMC minutes don't normally have too much impact, but I imagine the pot's boiling in anticipation of a lot of stirring.

Good job you got sorted, Hils.
This is what I've noticed recently, only related to this board:



I have the icon in the tray now, can't say if I saw it before yesterday.
Not sure if it matters?

Here you go David

Forex - Dollar falls to new euro low as rumours swirl ahead of FOMC
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar weakened sharply against major currencies, falling to new all-time lows against the euro and the Swiss franc, as vague rumours of an emergency meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee added to further speculation that Gulf economies could abandon their dollar peg.

Meanwhile, ongoing fears over the US economy, linked to turbulence in financial markets and a flagging US housing market, provide a longer-term, underlying reason for the dollar's weakness.

Vague rumours have circulated around the market this morning of an emergency meeting of the FOMC, the US Federal Reserve's rate-setting body.

"There were rumours of an emergency rate cut from the Fed tonight in the Asia session, which is likely to keep the dollar in a shaky mood," said Audrey Childe-Freeman at CIBC World Markets.

Mitul Kotecha, head of forex strategy at Calyon, said he hadn't heard anything concrete to back up the rumours.

"I'd be surprised if they held an emergency meeting unless there's a real systemic risk that we're not aware of, a bank going under or something like that," he said.

The minutes to the last rate decision on Oct 31 will be published later today, along with the Fed's latest economic forecasts.

The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point at its Oct 31 meeting and markets will be keen to see how decisive the vote was, with a view to refining the odds of a further cut in borrowing costs in December.

"The FOMC minutes will be pored over for rate friendly intimations today," said Dave Brown at Bear Stearns.

However, a report in today's Financial Times suggests these forecasts will surprise investors by giving a bullish outlook, denting expectations for further reductions in US interest rates.

Meanwhile, dollar-unfriendly sentiment is coming from continued speculation that a group of oil-rich Gulf states, the Gulf Co-operation Council, could decide to abandon their currency pegs to the dollar in the near future.

This speculation was fuelled today by regional newspaper reports that GCC member Saudi Arabia is considering such a move. The United Arab Emirates are openly looking at removing their dollar peg and Kuwait has already done so.


No worries Choccie - it just reminded me how fast things can go wrong by not sticking to a system. Stops are lovely though. Just walk away and find another trade. None of this doubling up business I used to get involved with on stocks. Got it back as re-entered higher up so up a very few pips now and planning next trades.

i am beginning to enjoy FX. I love the way you can map out a potential trade well in advance and just wait and wait until enough things look right before you press the button. Far less of this seat of the pants stuff.

Now where's the usdjpy off to? It looks spooked to me. waiting for say 109.6 but not even sure it's going to present an opportunity for a long when it gets there.

Choco,

What happens when you double click on the eye? Can you do that and post a screen shot please?

Choco,

When it's OK it should look something like this.



When there's a problem, the green tick changes to either a yellow or red icon and it invites you to "Fix" those problems.

That is the screenshot, Hils - I clicked on the eye with a no entry sign over it.
I think it gives me the option to show all or restricted websites.
And then there's a load of cookie stuff :S

Do you have the green tick to say you're protected? And do any of the items in the list (Computer & Files, Internet & Network, etc) say that they need attention?

Yip - all looks tick-ity boo :)
I don't have a McAfee virtual technician - probably just as well really :S

I think that eye's looking at your bum, Choccie.

I think that the problems I had were totally different, Chocopops. Mine said that I had problems which needed fixing then, when I clicked the button to fix them, it wouldn't do anything.

Are you sure that Mr Grumpy hasn't been looking at any porn sites?

:o)

From what you said I know yours were Hils - guess I was lucky my yellow eye disappeared as quickly as it did. Heaven help me trying to fix anything!

Thank you for your help Dezza :P

Choco,

I've been trying to find the bit in McAfee that tells me what's blocked and what's allowed so I could compare against your screenshot. I know it's there somewhere because I found it by accident the other day. Do you think I can find it now?

Why do they make these things so blooming complicated?

Sshhh - Dezza thinks we're smart ;)

Housing starts for October will be made public at the bond market open Tuesday morning. Analysts expect a decline from September, down to 1.175 million from 1.191 million. The report is a measure of residential units on which construction is begun each month. Along with housing starts are building permits, which keep track of permits taken out in order to allow excavation. Analysts expect a decline in building permits as well, down to 1.2 million from 1.261 million. Troubles in the housing market are ongoing, making this report important to investors searching for a bottom in the declining market.

The FOMC minutes from the October 30 - 31 revealed at 2:00 pm ET Tuesday will be of a groundbreaking variety. They represent a shift from a system that has been in place since 1979 of bi annual economic projections spanning two years from the Federal Reserve. However, as announced last week, the FOMC revealed that it will now deliver these projections four times a year and extend the projection horizon from two to three years.

Weekly initial jobless claims, the Michigan Sentiment Review, and crude inventories will all be released Wednesday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, on which the markets will be closed. On Friday there is an early close, scheduled for 2:00 pm ET.

Thanks Hils.
So they'll be launching a few mortars then.

And suddenly everything's come to a nail polish moment.
Time for a nice long bubble.

A little bit of reading for those nail polishing moments!

Is Economic Terrorism Right
Around the Corner?

By Andrew Gordon
Dear Reader,
I mustve missed the handshake. You know, the one that consigns the U.S. to second-tier economic status.
Ive been looking all over the Internet for a picture of our president shaking hands with one of Chinas leaders. Cant find it anywhere.
Maybe it happened away from the bright lights of the media. But it mustve taken place. How else can you explain the way these two giant economies mesh?
We give China what they want and they return the favor. Its the perfect marriage.
Or is it?
You already know that weve spent ourselves into a big black hole. Debt stinks that goes as much for countries as it does for people.
But as weve learned in the U.S., debt is not such a big deal if you have a cooperative bank willing to continually lend you money to help you pay bills and buy stuff.
Weve also learned that these banks can turn stingy in a heartbeat.
The U.S. has its own cooperative bank. Its called China. Every time we issue debt (our Treasury notes), China steps to the plate. We couldnt ask for a more understanding bank.
China allows us to keep spending. And when we go to the store and spend, we end up buying lots of Chinese goods.
Were Chinas main market. And all our spending allows China to do what is most important to them grow their economy.
Our top priority? Well, its obviously not getting out of debt.
Could it be economic growth, like Chinas? Seems like when the economy is growing, good things happen.
But the thing is, we cant grow unless we spend. Consumer spending fuels two-thirds of our economy.
government is in hoc. And we, as individuals, are also in hoc.
If it werent for China, wed be feeling a lot poorer right now.
Heaven forbid, we might feel compelled to deal with our debt. And theres really only one way to do that.
Get out of debt.
And the only way to do that is to spend less and save more.
And what if we did?
Theres no doubt that economic growth would suffer. There would be more layoffs and fewer raises. In fact, things could get so bad that we could end up spending less and saving less. After all, if youre unemployed, its pretty hard to save.
Thats why our understanding with China gets so little mention anywhere, including economic summits like the G-20 meeting that just took place this past weekend in South Africa.
The falling dollar dominated discussions. And China got a lot of the blame for protecting the unfair advantage its exporters have, thanks to the undervalued Yuan. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said that the Yuan is causing tensions, and Canada's Jim Flaherty said China (and other Asian countries) need to do more.
That may be true, but the much greater unfair advantage is baked into our economic relationship. China is growing their economy on the back of an expanding American debt.
And instead of telling them to stop, our politicians, economists, and Wall Street shake at the thought of China one day refusing to buy our Treasury notes.
Meanwhile, diplomats everywhere are pushing for a stronger Yuan. But maybe the U.S. (if not other countries) should think twice. If a stronger Yuan does manage to cut back Chinese export earnings, the Chinese government in turn may one day have to cut back on the amount of government debt they buy from the U.S.
Then all hell would break loose.
We should never be this dependent on another country, even if its our closest ally.
And as we all know, China is no ally. Nor is it our enemy. It is something in between, which means that we are just as likely to agree as disagree on an issue.
We have opened ourselves to economic blackmail and the opening is getting bigger, not smaller.
If you think our interests and Chinas are destined to align more closely, maybe this is not such a big deal.
But from Taiwan to the chase for dwindling resources to geopolitical competition in Asia, Africa and South America, our interests diverge. I dont see that changing anytime soon.
As investors in China, we tend to think that all the risks come from an overheated market and an economy where graft and gross inefficiencies go hand-in-hand.
Investors ignore, at their own peril, that our economic relationship with China is plainly said rotten to the core.
Good Investing,

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy will slow by more than previously thought in 2008 but inflation will remain tame, according to the economic forecasts of top Federal Reserve officials released for the first time on Tuesday. Fed officials said growth would slow to a range of 1.8% to 2.5% next year, down from growth around 2.45% in 2007. Some Fed officials were more pessimistic, putting growth down as low as 1.6% next year. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to about 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2008, up from the latest reading in October. Inflation is expected to remain contained. Headline inflation, as measured by the PCE index, is expected to slow to 1.8%-2.1% in 2008, down from around 2.95% this year. Core inflation will remain steady in a range of 1.7%-1.9%. The Fed forecasts go out to 2010. The Fed sees the economy growing at a moderate pace in the neighborhood of 2.6% in 2009 and 2010, with a steady unemployment rate and continued low inflation

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Many of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee said the quarter-point rate cut on Oct. 31 was a "close call," according to a summary of the closed-door meeting released Tuesday. It was not clear from the summary what tipped the scale in favor of a rate cut. Many FOMC members did say that the Fed easing this fall "could readily be reversed" if necessary. The summary said that "most" FOMC members saw substaintial downside risks to the outlook. They viewed the rate cut as "valuable additional insurance" against unexpected severe weakening. Financial market conditions were viewed as "still fragile." The Fed voted 9 to 1 to trim the Federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5%Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig voted against the cut, predicting "reasonable" growth in coming

some points to be had here if you know what you are doing I guess.

All a bit scary for a newbie like me.

one would like if the last cut was a close call the likelyhood of another is not 96% as was being called beforehand so this would strengthen the dollar yet i don't see alot of evidence of this in the fx markets. Equities don't like it yet cable and eurusd initially went up on the minutes.

If i've got this wrong if someone could take the time to explain I'd be very grateful

anyway took a few points short on eurusd and now long usdchf at 1.170. Fingers crossed. Not planning to be in usdchf for long as i'm fighting the long term trend
edit :closed for -3. Not sure i should have taken the trade in the first place. going long against that severe a downtrend isn't really very clever.

Gulf States ponder their Dollar pegs
Investors to watch GCC meeting next month for any hints of change

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve's policy meeting next month isn't the only meeting that could determine the dollar's near-term direction -- investors will be closely watching the Gulf Cooperation Council's meeting for clues about the future of its member countries' currency pegs to the greenback.