also posted on CBRY thread but i am canvassing for the opinions of a wider audience.
is there a real probability of these plummeting back to 6-ish a share if KRAFT don't make a formal offer by 03 Nov 09? i know there is usually a fall back if they have increased on speculation of an offer.
Does anyone think that KRAFT will make an increased offer? my crystal ball is fuzzy!!
Alex

Yes, although I don't think it's likely to go back to the old trading range due to the recent trading statement and the possibility of bidders returning in future. Something starting with a '6' would be my guess, depending on the nature of the exit statement.

I always weigh up the risk-reward ration in these circumstances. What's the bid price? What's the current price? What's the upside profit in the case of a successful bid or raised offer? What's the downside loss if a deal doesn't happen? What's my estimated percentage likelihood of a bid versus the upside and downside percentages?

Reuters carried an unattributed story last week from a 'top ten' investor in CBRY pushing for a 820 bid, and I've read that the consensus is that Nestle won't become involved. This may be the amount of potential upside.

I haven't followed the story very closely, but if there's nothing weighing the balance of probabilities in one direction or the other, then it's a simple 50-50 gamble, and that makes the upside versus downside calculation very easy to see.