Six share tips for 2013
Richard Hunter | 4 January 2013
January is a time when many investors reappraise their portfolios and look for new opportunities. To provide some inspiration I have selected two shares I believe could be set for a strong 2013, and asked analysts Keith Bowman and Paul Williams to do the same.
Please remember past performance is not a guide to the future; all stock market investments will fluctuate in value so you could get back less than you invest.
Richard Hunter
Barclays
The banking industry is showing some signs of life, and Barclays could be set for an interesting year. Challenges certainly remain, including further regulatory issues and fines (US investigations into financial probity and interest rate swaps), higher capital requirements, and pressure from shareholders for greater return on capital (the dividend yield is paltry compared to historic standards).
Barclays' decision to hold its hands up first over the LIBOR scandal could prove financially prudent, as it led to a discounted fine. The company has a broad mix of products and is geographically diversified (describing itself as having a 'universal banking model') and in February is expected to announce a restructure of its operations - with particular regard to the investment banking and retail banking businesses.
2013 could be a seminal year for Barclays and, whilst the obstacles are many, there are signs this is a company on the mend. The market consensus now stands at a cautious buy and the share price has managed to gain 60% over the last 12 months (compared to an 8% rise for the FTSE 100), albeit from a low base.
Barclays prices, charts and research
Standard Chartered
Although a UK company, Standard Chartered derives around 90% of its income and profits from Asia, Africa and the Middle East. December's trading statement confirmed the company was firmly back on track after August's $327m fine from the New York regulator relating to transactions with Iran.
Standard is a rare example of a bank in hiring mode, particularly in China and Africa where it anticipates further growth. Despite the US fine, December's update also highlighted improved financial features, including revenues, lower loan impairments, general asset quality and strength in liquidity and capital. Over the last six months the shares have staged a quiet yet robust recovery, having risen 15% as compared to a 6.8% gain for the FTSE 100. This return to business as usual is reflected in a strengthening market consensus, now a buy.
Standard Chartered prices, charts and research
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Paul Williams
Whitbread
Although its brewing and pub heritage is a distant memory, Whitbread has not only become the UK's largest hotel and restaurant company, but it is also aggressively expanding its international presence.
Costa Coffee has grown to one of the largest coffee house chains in the world, and the largest in the UK. In its latest quarterly update the board reiterated its five-year growth plans (to 2015/16) to increase the number of Premier Inn UK rooms to at least 65,000, add 80-100 new restaurants and nearly double Costa Coffee sales of £1.3 billion from 3,500 stores worldwide. In spite of fierce competition, the group is on track to meet analyst expectations of strong full year results. The shares have risen 67% over the last year, but I believe there is no sign of investor appetite waning. The analyst consensus is that the shares are still a buy.
Whitbread prices, charts and research
McDonald's
McDonald's is one of the top ten recognised global brands and is the world's largest fast food chain. The weak global economy, a strong US dollar and the euro zone crisis weighed on the group's latest results, which showed revenues and profits flat ($7.2bn and $1.46bn respectively). Nevertheless, global sales grew 1.9%, and in Europe, where around 40% of its business is undertaken, revenues were up 1.8%. More importantly, McDonald's has consistently outperformed competitors since the recession, notwithstanding newer chains including Panera Bread Co entering an already competitive market. The company offers a stable balance sheet, a diverse global business with a progressive dividend policy and share repurchase programme. I believe the market consensus of a buy will remain for the time being.
McDonald's prices, charts and research
Keith Bowman
ITV
ITV's mid-November trading update was well received, and the five-year transformation plan established in 2010 remains on track. A more balanced and robust business model is the goal, with a drive to increase non-advertising revenues being led by a renaissance at the group's Studios business. Its Studios production arm saw revenues rise by 20%, although this included strong growth in the first half, with international sales of shows including 'Come Dine With Me' and 'Downton Abbey' playing an important part.
Cost-cutting initiatives were ahead of target, whilst competition from rivals airing Olympic events will not repeat itself in 2013, possibly allowing a move into positive territory for group advertising revenues. In all, in the changing world of the media industry, content remains triumphant above distribution, an area where the group is growing in strength. Management is highly regarded, whilst an eventual takeover of the company cannot be completely ruled out. In all, analyst consensus opinion remains favourable in tone, a cautious buy.
ITV prices, charts and research
G4S
2012 was not a year for G4S to remember. It booked a £50 million loss against its much-publicised Olympic difficulties, with the full reputational damage not fully quantifiable. It will lose an existing prison management contract and has not made the shortlist for a number of other prison contracts up for tender.
However, a degree of backtracking by the government appears to have occurred, with three prisons set to remain under public sector control. G4S has recently strengthened its management, hiring Adam Crozier (formerly of ITV and Royal Mail) to the board, whilst the company has at least been shortlisted to run a number of call centres assisting with welfare changes. The group operates in over 125 countries and continues to target growth in emerging markets, which currently generate around 30% of group revenues. This year's difficulties could result in a change in Chief Executive, whilst a dividend yield of over 3% (variable and not guaranteed) remains attractive. In all, analyst opinion currently denotes a buy.