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FTSE / DOW YTD

Opening Market Summary

Yes Kim, there T/A is good as well. Will post when I receive it.

Brexit: Legal steps seek to ensure Commons vote on Article 50

UKIP leader Nigel Farage stands down

Midday Market Summary

Guardian Stock Brokers

INDICES
FTSE 100

After the breakout to new highs for the year, the question is what comes next. The next targets to watch on the upside become 6750 and then 6825, the highs from early August 2015 and then mid-July 2015 respectively. Having seen such a relentless push higher, some weakness today would not be surprising, but so long as the price holds above 6440 then we can continue to expect gains. A close below 6440 raises the prospect of a bigger move lower, perhaps down towards 6320 and then 6200.


FTSE 250

Having pushed back above the mid-June (pre-Brexit) lows, the index looks in fine form. Some skittishness is possible around 16,500, which was key support in early May and also proved significant back in February and March. A close above 16,500 would open the way longer-term to 17,000 and then the pre-Brexit peak around 17,400.


Dax

The index remains trapped below the 9800 area that marked vital support back in March and then in May as well. Any turn lower would first head towards support at 9440, and then below this we look to 9260 and then 9100. The absence of US markets today may mean we see little upside progress, but a break above 9800 suggests a move to 10,000 and then 10,300.


FX
EURUSD retracement continues, for now

EURUSD has been gaining ground over the past week, following on from the Brexit fueled selloff. So far we have retraced 50% of that downturn, with price pulling back from that Fibonacci level. From a wider perspective, this rally is likely to have limited legs on it and as such another leg lower seems likely before long. With that in mind, a short term bullish view remains in play, yet be on the lookout for bearish reversal signs. The next resistance levels of note are 1.1170, 1.1231 and 1.1306. An hourly close below 1.1072 would provide a bearish signal in line with the wider trend.


GBPUSD continues to consolidate

GBPUSD remains within the very tight range that has been in place since Thursday evening, with a significant degree of hesitancy evident following such a strong deterioration post-Brexit. Given the wider sell-off, coupled with the short term weakness leading into this current range, it seems most likely that we will see further losses following the breakout. As such, a bearish view remains in play, especially around the 1.3349 area. This bearish bias holds unless we see an hourly close above 1.3504. Key support levels of note are 1.3206 and 1.3121.


USDJPY range could spark downturn

USDJPY is back into the 102.36-103.02 range that dominated Thursday’s price action last week. There are two ways to look at the current situation. Firstly, we have not created a new low and are simply seeing a deeper retracement of Thursday’s rally. As such, a bullish view remains in place. However, it is also possible that we are simply back into a lower range, which could create a second shoulder. Ultimately the key here will be whether we see a significant break and closed candle below 102.36. Should that occur, we could swiftly return to the 101.40 levels. However, until that happens, it makes sense to remain bullish for the short term.


COMMODITIES
Gold

Having moved higher by leaps and bounds, the question is now whether gold is about to close above $1350, or whether the combination of overbought intraday charts and extremely bullish positioning will lead to a swift reversal. The metal is in an uptrend, so the approach here would be to buy the dips as and when they appear. It is important to note that the steepness of the move since the beginning of June means that we could see a drop back to just below $1280 and still be in an uptrend. A close above $1350 targets the March 2015 highs around $1385.


Brent

Gains since 20 June have been stymied by the $51 level, so although we are still in an uptrend from the Brexit day lows, the metal needs to clear $51 to suggest that more gains are on the way. The next target above here is $52.85, and then on to the October 2015 peak around $54.15.


WTI

There has been a worrying development on the WTI chart, with a series of lower highs since early June. The price needs to close above $50 and quickly, lest further weakening momentum hands the initiative to the sellers. A close above $50 targets $51.60, while further downward momentum below the 50-day SMA ($47.85) would head towards $46.35, which marked support in June and also resistance at the end of April and in early May.


Disclaimer

This research has been produced by an independent third party provider. Further details can be provided on request. Guardian Stockbrokers Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 492519). This report has been prepared using information available from public sources, which are believed to be reliable as at the date of this report. However, Guardian Stockbrokers, its employees and its independent third party provider make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this report. This report should therefore not be relied on as accurate or complete. The facts and opinions on this report are subject to change without notice. Guardian Stockbrokers, its employees and its independent third party provider have no obligation to modify or update this report in the event that any information on this report becomes inaccurate. This report is prepared for informational purpose only, with no recommendation or solicitation to buy or to sell. The background of any individual or other investor has not been considered in providing this report. Individuals and other investors should seek independent financial advice which considers their specific risks, objectives and specific constraints, and make their own informed decisions. Individuals and other investors should note that investing in shares carries a degree of risk and the value of investments can go up or down. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investments should be made with regard to an investor’s total portfolio. Guardian Stockbrokers, its independent third party provider and its employees make no representation or guarantee with regard to any investment noted on this report, and shall therefore not be liable with regard to any loss.

Closing Market Summary