renamed the kindergarden thread in honour of Haystack & Dil

ROTFLMAO - Dil's thread... is dead!!!! LOL!!!

Many people believe that the MMD745 IP Phone offering unparalleled quality, speed and range of capabilities is overpriced at 1,995 for the retail market, but MMD are not presently directing their business to that arena, concentrating instead in taking a small slice (small slice) of the 2billion global video conferencing market.

Currently the only decent competition that MMD has is Tandberg on a 'like for like' basis and the Tandberg 1000 whilst admittedly very slim and ergonomic (sexy) is priced at 5,000 plus 200 a year maintenance per phone. An expensive choice, when you consider that you get two MM745's for the price of one, no maintenance charge AND a host of added benefits to boot.


MMD are aiming at a slice of a marketplace that is growing at a tremendous rate and at 5% market share would capitalise them at what, 100million??. Admittedly that's a big chunk of cash but it makes you realise

that MMD do not have to be a 'world beater' to make a big splash, but they are!!
and MMD don't have to have a 'killer product' to compete, but they have.

If they can do that with the IP videophone over the next couple of years - would you consider a 3.5p a share investment now is worth the risk? or will you wait until their 5 a share before you buy in??

:@)

I think the potential is acknowledged by the market;but too many "blue sky"ideas fail to reach a commercial take-off point.The market is sceptical as to whether MMD can survive long enough to succeed.Where I agree completely with your analysis is that this will fly upward at the speed of light at the first sign of real orders being satisfactorily met.It is,however,a gamble rather than an investment at this stage.

I would be suprised to see the price rise much on announced orders and quickly fall back after. They would have to be making quite a profit to justify a substantial rise in share price in a market like this. Not just a rise in turnover, but a rise in PROFIT (that is from losses every year going back to the start of the company). The cash burn rate is probably the most significant factor in their success though.

Haystack, if you were a figures only man it might be the route you take, but this is a 'risk' fund and there is a lot of 'risk' capital out there that would leap at this share as soon as the future is 'assured'.

To be 'assured' the company would not only have to show there are orders coming in from multiple clients this year, but also a forward order book into 2004-5. This would be sufficient to drive the price very quickly higher while a market scrabbles for a small quantity of the available shares to a peak possibly of 1 before dropping back on a stronger baseline of 25p'ish.

Many investors are acutely aware of this and are sufficiently researched to see, and 'know' the odds are actually in MMD's favour. Not only do they have a product that competes on every level in the video conferencing/telephony arena but, more importantly overwhelmingly excels against every single one of them.

Now the financing is in place, the order book is beginning to bristle with interested companies and it will not be long before those 'excellent' products are in high demand.

Certainly the position is not yet 'assured' and their cashburn rate is significant, (but reduced against last years figures by a substantial amount) and they have orders flowing in on a small level that provides additional income. I would hazard an educated guess that they will not suffer unduly for another 12 months and so long as substantial orders are flowing before the end of the summer, they will be a healthy company in no time at all.

IMHO :@D

"that is from losses every year going back to the start of the company"

Not true.

There does seem to be some interest in the Carestation devices in the health care area, there seems to be no concrete evidence that substantial orders have been made.

Even with a few million pounds in orders the share price could not be justified even at 50p. A price of 1 would be absurd as it would take them a few years to achieve the level of profits to make even a slightly reasonable P/E ratio possible.

We all know that there are rumours about orders as yet unannounced. Even if these are true then some of that must already be in the price as it was on the back of these rumouts that they got new funding. Their other products like the IP videophone are just pie in the sky. I cannot see any amount of these being sold at all for several years to come.

If these rumoured orders turn out to be real then how long is it going to take to get the next batch. Their lead time in getting new orders has always been quite extended.

mrploppy
How far back do you want to go
1996 -0.50m
1997 -1.04m
1998 -1.30m
1999 -0.53m
2000 -2.48m
2001 -6.89m

Haystack - I didn't say the price of 1 was a 'normal' price, but due to the fact that there are ONLY 204million shares in circulation and that the owners of these shares are mainly in for the longterm it is going to be very difficult to prise these shares away from holders without some big incentive.. a 1 seems a likely breakpoint as does 60p.

The only reason this share is sitting at 3.5p is because of market sentiment.. it would/should be around 10-12p at moment and probably with its potential should reside in the 20-35p level... this will come. I

haystack - re losses, these are not really an issue except maybe to the taxman - as the 20m R&D has sucked up a lot of this cash and that is built into the program so to speak... no-one is going to be looking at losses in this type of situation - it's really history and only serves as an offset against future earnings.

This will be totally ignored once the orders start filtering through and will be laughed at within 12 months on the strength of value. IMHO

Haystack

You'll have to go back further than that :-)

I thought Emblaze systems was suppose to be 2 years ahead of the competition. According to its chairman that is.

Emblaze and MMD are not competitors and neither of them would think so either. One makes hardware videophones opersting over ISDN, IP networks and POTS phone sytems. The other is in the streaming media market providing software and hardware solutions mainly for mobile phone companies. It is difficult to compare the two companies as they are in different markets.

Haystack - your right but, many DO feel that these two companies compete.. I'm not sure if it is the lack of understanding of todays technology, or whether it's some form of protectiveness on the part of shareholders who aren't desirous of city attention being taken away from their 'shining light' investment.

It only appears to be Emblaze > Motion Media though, strange that??

I haven't noticed any comments either way. There is no real connection between them. More like the differnce between a greengrocer and a butcher.

I see where you are coming from Haystack.One is for thin people the other for fatcats.Just point me in the right direction.

LOL

These deals that are supposed to have been made are looking more and more uncertain every day. If they don't turn up then how long does the cash last.

Haystack - if the deals don't turn up the cash will last 1 year to 18 months, and by then MMd will have turned a corner and taken a new direction... not that it would matter to us as my shares would by then be almost worthless..for at least a year or two beyond..

You might be following the posts of the last week, or so on ADVFN and if so, you might also note there has been some very balanced discussion on the subject of orders and finance...

You already know the answer to the question you posed - you have done your research [haven't you?], therefore are you attempting to promote negative discussion, or look prophetic?

:-)

It has taken a huge amount of time to get the current deals if they turn up. How long is it going to take get more deals? Probably just as long. I have seen several comments from people who don't think the cash will last long enough and certainly not 18 months. Yes I am negative about MMD. Thye may sell a few Carestation units, but I can't see them selling ordinary videophones at all.