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Platinum, Gold or Oil??     

stockbunny - 19 Oct 2003 11:42

Open question to all...
I am looking at putting some money into either the oil or mining sectors as I do not have any coverage in either currently. Any favourites out there? Obviously I intend to research this myself as well but I would appreciate any ideas and don't worry I wont take any ideas as 'recommendations!'so you're safe!! (Laugh) - I would be looking for a dividend return and listing on a main FTSE index, be that 100, 250, smallcap or fledgling rather than Aim or Ofex etc.

redvers - 23 Oct 2003 13:29 - 9 of 10

The problem with the big miners is that they have to replace their reserves every year to maintain their share price. Over the years, there has been a growing trend to buy out small E&P companies rather than looking too hard yourself. Therefore, much of the big gains comes from small cap explorers who strike it rich. However, there's considerable risk there as these companies usually have to keep tapping the market for cash as mines/wells aren't cheap to develop. There's also the problem of them finding nothing (Minmet, Caspian etc).

For oil plays, Russia will become the big supplier over the next 10 years and well worth a look. Both BP and Shell have big programs but my personal favourite is Sibir Energy (recommended by Vintage57 above). Has a large field that they are developing with Shell and expect to be earning revenues of 150m by the end of '05. There is still the obvious political risk in Russia and I don't believe that we will have heard the end of it. You could also look at Lukoil.

Paladin Resources is a safer oil play. They tend to concentrate on buying small fields from the big producers (mainly North Sea) and running these. They pay a small divi and have been steadily expanding. Fantastic management team.

Gas plays are a little harder to find as they tend to come together with oil companies but if you want to look outside the UK, try Admiral Bay (ADB) listed on the Canadian exchange. They have potentially a massive gas deposit which they could sell into the US market. The US market is only going one way price wise as there is not enough gas to supply the ever increasing demand. It's very risky but if it comes off, you could easily take the share price and mulitply by 5.

I believe gold is entering a new bull market (along with other commodities) and small miners/explorers offer good upside. I currently have shares in Celtic Resources who have had some serious ups and downs but now appear to be able to begin mining the massive Nezdaniskoye mine in Eastern Siberia. There is still massive potential here, not least a take over.

Otherwise, putting money into Merryl Lynch Gold and General Fund has seen my 'fund' section of my portfolio increase 20% this year.

Platinum is harder to call as it's long term price depends upon whether cheaper metals can be found for catalytic converters. For a risky play try Southern Era.

You might also want to consider Silver as an investment. Hasn't really taken off as gold has yet but with supply outstripping demand and world reserves almost gone, the price should rise. I don't think I need to add that Mr Buffet has been buying over the last few years to make you understand the potential here! There's a Canadian company that are sat on an enourmous silver mine but the name of the company escapes me. Pan something or other. Could be worth a look.

Finally, with the Chinese and Indian economies expanding, consider other commodities such as zinc, copper or lead.

Hope this helps.

stockbunny - 23 Oct 2003 15:17 - 10 of 10

Redvers - many thanks for the time and trouble you have taken in sharing your ideas and insights. It is sincerely appreciated! Yes I'm beginning to consider the fund route to be honest on these sectors, as they are ones I have little knowledge of. Thanks again and be lucky!!
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