hoping for a steady climb from thus soon. trying to get of the floor. good figures coming in for the amstrad video phone[1st weeks sales]thus providing the connections at 50p a go. any other holders/believers.........??? barty

bought a load more this morning at 12.25p. but i'm a gambler !! barty

From the Scotsman - 25/09/2004

WARNING MAY SIGNAL END OF THUS

THUS, the Glasgow-based telecoms company, saw its future as an independent firm cast into doubt yesterday after it issued its second profit warning in the space of three months.

The struggling internet provider, which first warned of tough conditions Advertisement

in July, lost a third of its market value as it admitted that aggressive pricing tactics from rivals would hamper full-year earnings.

The update saw investors scrambling for the exit, sending the shares down 27 per cent, or 4.5p, to 12.5p. The value of the company has almost halved in three months, despite a steady climb over the past two years.

The pressure on Thus has come from a UK marketplace flooded with competitors such as Cable & Wireless (LSE: CW.L - news - msgs) and Colt, some of which are prepared to offer corporate services at a loss to maintain market share.

Thus's woes have led to renewed speculation that it could become an acquisition target for a rival company, with C&W and former giant Energis (LSE: EGS.L - news) potential suitors.

One analyst said: "This could be the end of the line for Thus as an independent company. The only option for alternative providers is that some supply is taken out of the market and that would need some consolidation."

Thus chief executive Bill Allan agreed, saying that a shake-out "needed to happen". He would not be drawn on whether Thus itself would be a target, although he said he thought the firm was in a better position than at the end of the dotcom crash.

Andrew Darley, an analyst at ING financial markets, said that Energis or a private equity bidder were the most likely suitors. He said C&W was less likely, as it had recently bought UK-based Bulldog.

Thus said the profit warning meant earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITA) will be "not less than 39 million", down from 44m last year and initial forecasts of as much as 58m.

It blamed the setback on cut-throat pricing for corporate accounts by rivals, while a growing transfer from dial-up internet to lower-margin broadband was also hitting profits.

Bill Allan said that pricing conditions had been "much more severe than we had expected", and crucially could not put a date on a likely market recovery. He said: "I hope the environment can be improved. It's not normal for the industry, but predatory pricing is forcing down what we can charge for our services."

His comments confirmed the tough trading environment gripping the UK's splintered corporate telecoms market, marked by overcapacity and the return from bankruptcy of former US giants such as MCI Worldcom.

Allan added: "We have not lost any contracts, but we have had to renew them at a lower cost. Unfortunately, due to our size, we are a price follower not a price leader."

He insisted that Thus was not doing any of its business at an unprofitable level and said that revenue growth would continue to be healthy. Sales at its core business have risen 18 per cent, meaning full year revenues will come in at 360m.

Thus will also maintain its proud record of being cashflow positive for five straight quarters, something Allan claimed was "unique" in the UK sector.

But he confirmed that the firm had shelved plans to make its first operating profit by March 2005, saying that the pressure on margins had put paid to that goal.

Thus rivals such as Cable & Wireless, Colt and Kingston Communications, all of which have been blamed for the "unsustainable" pricing, lost out as the trading session went on. C&W was the biggest faller on the entire FTSE (news) 100, losing 2 per cent, or 2p, to 101p.

LOFTY DREAMS COME CRASHING DOWN

BILL Allan, the chief executive of Glasgow telecoms group Thus, is not a man prone to modesty.

"One day Scotland will be as proud of Thus as it is of the Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS.L - news) ," he told The Scotsman less than a year ago, boosting the shares to a healthy looking 34p.

Sadly, while RBS continues its relentless pursuit of world domination, Thus has suffered two profit warnings and has gone backwards.

Its shares are stranded at 12.5p and analysts reckon that if it does not get swallowed by another firm, it will be a long, hard slog to achieve anything close to Allan's vision.

To recap, Thus was founded by ScottishPower (LSE: SPW.L - news - msgs) in 1994, but was spun off on to the stock market five years later.

The flotation price was originally put at 310p, but rose to the lofty heights of 800p during the height of the dotcom boom.

After the obligatory crash, Allan did better than most of his rivals by managing to keep the firm afloat.

He then set a target to become cash-flow positive by the end June 2004, a target the company made with ease - over three months ahead of schedule.

But now fresh challenges have emerged, forcing Thus to discard its operating profit target of March 2005. RBS is safe for now.

By: JOHN BOWKER -- 25-Sep-04

Also the other article:

Thus woe creates a new dilemma for shareholders

JOHN BOWKER and ALASTAIR REED


THUS has survived the rollercoaster ride of the telecoms sector in recent years, but yesterdays profit warning could grind the journey to a halt.

Until this summer, it had not done badly. It received several plaudits, not least for its bullish chief executive Bill Allan. Few would have been able to keep a telecoms minnow afloat through the dotcom boom and bust era, but he had somehow managed it.

But yesterdays news spells a tough time for the Cable & Wireless veteran. The UK market is rammed with cut-throat competitors - including his old employers - all prepared to undercut Thus for its market share. Worst of all, they look like they are here to stay.

This is not the end for Thus. A mere slump in EBITA will not have the administrators sharpening their pencils. As Allan says, the firm is not losing customers or revenues - only the margins it once enjoyed.

The real question is whether there is any value in the company for shareholders and this is where the Thus case looks so bleak.

Mere survival has not been welcomed patiently by small investors. Many of them bought into the firm when it demerged from ScottishPower five years ago. Oblivious to the upcoming market collapse, they bought the stock at 310p, a tasty looking price when you look back on it.

During the bubble the shares rose to 800p, but the market crash reduced the company to a barely-breathing penny share. That was when Allan set out his stall.

He asked shareholders to accept that the firm was not on the cusp of returning to that kind of value. He said to trust his ten year plan - a long time in the stock market - and he would deliver a great Scottish company to rival Royal Bank of Scotland. Some investors bought this idea and sat back to wait, even though they were given no promise of ever receiving a dividend.

What these last two profit warnings have shown is that this idea was foolish. As one investor said at the firms AGM in July: "A lot of Thus shareholders are older people and they dont have the years ahead of them to wait for this company to improve its performance."

Allan has given no assurances that the slump is about to close, and judging by recent updates from Cable & Wireless and Colt, it wont be any time soon.

So why keep on the shares? The only real reason is on the off-chance the company is bought up. The premium would perhaps be worth taking - a case of jam today rather than dying of old age with shares in the pocket. The question is who? Most telecoms rivals are in a similar pickle to Thus and C&W last week distanced itself from a UK acquisition (although it has been known to change its mind).

A private equity firm is the most likely buyer. The only issue is that Thus may well not be at its cheapest, even at 12.5p. The VCs may wait a while yet, although not as long as an Allan strategy plan.

At its current price (12.5p), THUS still looks expensive

barty i thought i was the only one who feeds when the water is low,,keep the faith,i like your style.dd

Thus Group wins Computer Cab, Scottish Widows order for Ethernet services

LONDON (AFX) - Telecoms provider Thus Group PLC said Computer Cab, a supplier of licensed radio taxis in London, and fund and life assurance broker Scottish Widows have signed up for its Ethernet services.

Thus said that while the service has been in demand for some time in the local area network, it is now seeing demand in the wide area Ethernet networking grow.

The company said it provided more than 2,200 Ethernet links to customers across the UK, a 100 pct increase in less than a year ...
Tuesday, 28/09/04, 12:15

Thus Group PLC
29 September 2004


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


THUS Group plc ('THUS')

THUS was today informed by Columbia Ventures Corporation that on 28 September
2004 it had a notifiable interest in 70,567,397 THUS Group plc ordinary shares
(representing approximately 5.23% of the THUS Group plc ordinary shares in
issue). These shares are held through Chase Manhatten Bank.
For further information:

THUS
Kathryn Rhinds 020 7763 3126

Smithfield
Nicholas Bastin 020 7360 4900


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

A little background on CVC, could bring a few more 'believers' into THUS:


"Columbia Ventures Corporation completes purchase of Hibernia Atlantic


Vancouver, Washington and Dublin, Ireland, April 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Columbia Ventures Corporation (CVC) announced today that its subsidiaries have completed the purchase of a state-of-the-art 12,200 kilometre fibre optic submarine cable system connecting North America with Europe. Formerly known as 360atlantic, the assets were sold pursuant to Canadian court approval as part of a reorganization plan involving 360networks. CVC has renamed the system Hibernia Atlantic.

Hibernia Atlantic is configured as a self-healing ring on diverse paths, with cable landing stations near Halifax, Nova Scotia; Boston, Massachusetts; Dublin, Ireland; and Liverpool, England. The spacious cable landing stations in the four countries were purpose-built with redundant power and communications equipment to minimize the potential of any service disruptions. The system is currently configured to offer secure and resilient bandwidth services utilizing recent DWDM, SONET/SDH and optical switching technologies. The system has immediate capacity up to 160 gigabits per second on each path. This is equivalent to handling 2.5 million simultaneous phone calls while also delivering 13,000 individual HDTV-quality movies. The system can be upgraded to handle a protected capacity of 1.9 terabits per second, or more than 10 times the current lit capacity."

RNS Number:5790D
Thus Group PLC
01 October 2004







1 October, 2004

THUS Group plc ("THUS"

THUS was today informed by Columbia Ventures Corporation that on 30 September
2004 it acquired a further 17,071,190 shares and that it now has a notifiable
interest in 87,638,587 THUS Group plc ordinary shares (representing
approximately 6.5% of the THUS Group plc ordinary shares in issue

This accumalation of shares by CVC could be the precursor to a takeover.

Couldn't agree more - at this price very susceptible to a bid in a sector that needs desperate to consolidate. Looking at the potential acquisition valuation one could reasonably expect a range of 35-45 pence per share.

joehargon1,
Simplistic and optimistic assessment. I hope you are right, but I can't help but think that your expectations are quite high at 35/40p. Yet I would be very happy if they were achieved.
Good luck
opto

Optomistic, thanks for the vote of confidence - I arrived at this range after running the numbers on an adjusted book value (net asset) method taking the equity of Thus which is arrived at after the values of assets and liabilities are adjusted against market cap and then restated this as a target range. This model represents one common M&A tool to estabish the estimated market value. There are clearly many diverse measures of deriving a fair market value but this is one of the most generally best accepted measures. A lot then clearly depends then on the non-science part of a particular company placing a value on how much that business is actually worth. DYOR but I stand by 35-45 pence with all aspects of an assumed hostile bid factored in. Either way, at the current level there is no doubt that any attempted bid will move the share price only in one direction and that's up!

Why is it so undervalued by analysts then? I assume they run something similar.
I think any takeover would be welcomed as the present management aren't taking the co forward. Can't see much resistance. I would accept a bid of 22p (although I would be losing)as I can't see what is going to drive this up any further.

35p is a long way away.

I wonder if anyone can help me i am confused!!!!!!!

There were 11 million buys on thus today and 2.5 million sells and the price never moved all day! Can anyone explain how it works?..... thanks

Colcaz
Not all trades were recorded or many were selected by the computer as buys when they were actually sells. Not satisfactory I know but all you can do is hope most of the time they are reasonably accurate.
It can be taken for fact that when the price drops there are likely to be more sellers than buyers and reverse.
Out of interest I did a trade today via a web broker and it was not recorded, how many times does this have to happen to make a nonsense of the figures.
opto
edit: trade was not in THUS, I have quite enough!!

thanks for that..optomistic.. it explains a lot.. just hope they go up soon so i can sell them

Another nice contract win announced today from THUS. Rewarded of course by a small drop in share price, but we could be kind here and put that down to the miserable market today.
However:


25 October 2004

THUS chosen to Support TELE2 Internet Service Launch
THUS Wins Contract With Tele2
25 October 2004 - THUS plc today announced it has signed a contract with Tele2, one of Europe's leading telecommunications companies, to provide the systems to support Tele2's new dial-up Internet service for residential customers, the company's entry into the UK Internet market.

Using THUS's dial-up platform and modem technology as the backbone of its Internet solution, Tele2 can expand its service in the future and set-up costs will be reduced without affecting the end user experience. By keeping costs and administrative demands of the service low, Tele2 will be able to replicate its successful telephony business model, passing on cost savings to its customers.

Tele2 launched its UK telephony service in October 2003, offering one of the UK's lowest call tariffs, and has seen considerable market success as an aggressive competitor to BT for the residential market. Tele2 already uses THUS's advanced national fibre optic network for its domestic voice traffic and is now extending the relationship to include provision of the infrastructure for Tele2's new dial-up Internet service.

THUS's network will allow Tele2 to minimise administration for the new Internet service by removing the need for each customer to be issued with a login and password. Tele2 customers will automatically be able to access the Internet using their home phone number as identification. This is possible because THUS's network can attribute an IP address upon connection, and authenticate that the home phone number supplied as a login is the number from which the machine has dialled out, providing added security for Tele2's customers.

Bill Butler, Managing Director of Tele2, commented, "We have experienced THUS's cost effective service and innovative approach to its customers' needs first hand over the last 18 months and we are confident that THUS is the best provider to support our first steps into the UK ISP market. This is an important development for Tele2 as offering a package of value communications services, both Internet and phone, with a single monthly bill is a very compelling proposition for our customers. We have seen great success with this business model across Europe."

"Tele2 has brought much needed competition to the UK's residential telephony sector and THUS has been pleased to support the company in its challenge to BT," commented Phil Male, Chief Operating Officer, THUS plc. "Tele2's move into Internet service provision using the same low cost model is a natural progression for the company and will bring more choice to the UK's home Internet users."

Getting more interesting