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Traders Thread - Tuesday 7th December (TRAD)     

Greystone - 07 Dec 2004 06:16

Digger - 07 Dec 2004 07:32 - 9 of 19

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,722.8, down 25.1
FTSE 250 6,635.5, down 20.5
DJIA 10,547.10, down 45.10
Nasdaq Comp 2,151.25, up 3.29
S&P 500 1,190.25, down 0.90
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 10,873.63, down 108.33
Hang Seng midday 14,199.16, down 57.70
Gold 452.25 usd (450.15 usd)
Oil - Brent Jan 39.65 usd (39.36 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* A leading British arms manufacturer accused of paying a 16 mln stg bribe to sell tanks to Indonesia, high court hears; ALVIS is fighting to prevent the Guardian gaining access to court documents about the 160 mln stg sale of Scorpion tanks to the then Suharto regime in Jakarta - Guardian
* Gunmen storm US consulate; eight people die as Saudi forces repel suspected al-Qaeda assault on Jeddah compound; raid casts doubt on anti-terror measures - FT
* Opec members cut exposure to dollar - FT
* BAE SYSTEMS says falling margins on its lucrative Saudi support contract will hit profits next year
* China making an exception to its policy of dampening investment growth by approving construction of three steel mills expected to free the country from its dependence on imports in three years - FT
* BRC says shop sales slid 0.2 pct in November from a year earlier on a like-for-like basis, the first fall since December last year - Guardian
* JARVIS falls 19 pct after urgent call for funding - FT
* Ecclestone loses F1 court battle; banks win first round of fight for control of sport; top teams welcome decision; 'no real defence' against lawsuit, says judge - FT
* WOLSELEY joins list of suitors for WICKES - FT
* Air China cleared for 1 bln usd Hong Kong and London listing - FT
* WestLB begins move to sell Mid Kent Water stake - FT
* WH SMITH shelled out 3.8 mln stg to board directors last year - a rise of 77 pct - despite one of the worst performances in its 212-year history - Mail
* T&N pension fund deficit talks collapse; should scheme fail, the bill to bail out 40,000 members may fall on Protection Fund - Telegraph
* Ernst & Young dumps WEMBLEY ahead of bribery trial in US - Independent

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Opec, SMITHS GROUP (look reasonable value), Legal mergers, OTC markets - GOLDSHIELD (legal wrangling with the Department of Health amid allegations of price fixing last year is acting as a health warning to investors) - NORTHGATE INFORMATION SOLUTIONS (unlikely to nudge much higher until there is more clarity on the company's continuing acquisition plans)
Mail
SPORTINGBET (whispers that HILTON GROUP has made a tentative approach) - FIRST CALGARY PETROLEUM (speculation Statoil is a leading contender to buy it in an auction process to be held early next year)
Express
DUNNLINE (debut today at 3 pence) - WHO'S DEALING: CYPROTEX (chairman buys stock) - SHARE WHISPER: UKBETTING (talk of European predator) - BROKER'S VIEW: WPP (Deutsche Bank supports)
Telegraph
JD WETHERSPOON (dealers speculate it is considering further increasing the prices of its drinks) - QUESTOR: BAE SYSTEMS (take profits, if you must, but braver souls should hold on), ULTRA ELECTRONICS (fully up with events), NORTHGATE INFORMATION SOLUTIONS (should be a good companion for the next couple of years)
Guardian
GOALS SOCCER CENTRES (debuts on AIM today)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: ULTRA ELECTRONICS (hold), VANCO (worth tucking away for the long term), CORIN (hold) - BOW LEVEN (floats today)
Times
DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: BROADCASTLE (two directors buy stock) - TEMPUS: TRAVIS PERKINS (investors should steer clear; those that have enjoyed any or all of the threefold increase in share price over the past five years should sell), MOWLEM (avoid, at least for now), NORTHGATE INFORMATION SOLUTIONS (hold)

Druid2 - 07 Dec 2004 07:46 - 10 of 19

Good morning all. Where is the Xmas rally???

Big Al - 07 Dec 2004 07:53 - 11 of 19

Morning punters!

LVD - trading statement not expecting any better than last year
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700070797G.html

MEG - comment on price moves - strange
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700110836G.html

BLH - new contracts
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700110834G.html

AKT - requests to continue drug use after trials. Hmm
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700130845G.html

CNC - expecting profit, but not as much as last year - warning
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700140852G.html

JRVS - another fire sale? ;-)
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700160866G.html

XNC - share price action past few days leaked this?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700180870G.html

LOK - propertry valuation for next results. Keen to impress?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700180871G.html

EVS - trading statement OK
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700230884G.html

CNM - independent technical review gives bullish assessment? This might fly
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700420918G.html

ROC/DNX - water-bearing well in Oz
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700440926G.html

PAY - interims show good growth, but added expenses - seems reasonable
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700230885G.html

AIE - on track (?) and in profit
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700180875G.html

UTF - shocking results. In the price? Personally don't think so. Outlook crap
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700090825G.html

VCT - had these on the long list. Just beat forecasts, but got the $ shadow
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700050771G.html

GRI - good results, cautious outlook. Interesting reading
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700170869G.html

NBF - been watching these too. Not too bad, but legal costs of Competition Commission.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412070700230883G.html

Well, time runs out. Loads more out there, though.

Have a good day.

daves dazzlers - 07 Dec 2004 07:54 - 12 of 19

Morning all.

Mega Bucks - 07 Dec 2004 08:43 - 13 of 19

s/l hit RTR -6

Mega Bucks - 07 Dec 2004 09:01 - 14 of 19

BUR on the move upwards

Digger - 07 Dec 2004 10:16 - 15 of 19

UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.


UBS
Downgrade Neutral from buy SABMiller, cuts target to 940 pence from 950 -- Downgrade Neutral from buy Kudelski, ups target to 47 sfr from 42 -- Downgrade Neutral from buy Telecom Italia, ups target to 3.2 eur from 3.0; Downgrade Neutral from buy TIM, ups target to 5.2 eur from 5.1 -- Initiate Buy Mobilcom, target 18.5 eur-- Reiterate Buy Imperial Tobacco, ups target to 1,590 pence from 1,480; Buy Altadis, ups target to 35.8 eur from 32.6; Reduce Gallaher, ups target to 650 pence from 595; Neutral BAT, ups target to 885 pence from 840 -- Neutral Unilever, cuts target to 49 eur from 50 -- Buy De Vere Group, ups target to 545 pence from 525 -- Buy Imerys, ups target to 67 eur from 64 -- Buy Berkeley Group, cuts target to 965 pence from 1,465 -- Buy Tietoenator, ups target to 28 eur from 26 -- Buy Brisa, ups target to 7.75 eur from 7.3; Neutral ASF, ups target to 38.6 eur from 36.0

DEUTSCHE BANK
Upgrade Buy from hold Prudential, ups target to 486 pence from 450, valuation call; Downgrade hold from buy Aviva, ups target to 633 pence from 626, valuation call -- Upgrade Buy from hold Kuhne & Nagel, ups target to 285 sfr from 220 -- Reiterate Buy OPAP, ups target to 20.4 eur from 18.0 -- European Publishers: Reiterate Hold Pearson, cuts target to 600 pence from 630; Hold Reed Elsevier, cuts NV target to 12 eur from 12.4, PLC target unchanged at 550 pence; Buy VNU, cuts target to 28.5 eur from 30.6; Buy UBM, cuts target to 600 pence from 610; Hold Wolters Kluwer, cuts target to 13.8 eur from 14

MERRILL LYNCH
Downgrade Neutral from Buy Centrica, cuts estimates -- Upgrade Buy from Neutral Ryanair -- Diversified mining: Downgrade sector stance to Neutral from Overweight; Cuts estimates across the board; Downgrade Neutral from Buy BHP Billiton; Downgrade Neutral from Buy Anglo American; Downgrade Neutral from Buy Rio Tinto; Downgrade Sell from Neutral Lonmin -- Reiterate Buy Carnival, raises target to 35 from 31

GOLDMAN SACHS
Upgrade Outperform from In-Line Generali

CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY
Upgrade Buy from hold Capgemini

CAI CHEUVREUX
Upgrade Outperform from underperform Rio Tinto, ups target to 1,754 pence from 1,446, switch from BHP Billiton -- Downgrade Underperform from outperform Aviva, target 615 pence, switch to Prudential -- Downgrade Underperform from Selected List Renault, cuts target to 69 eur -- Downgrade Outperform from Selected List France Telecom, fair value 27 eur -- Upgrade Selected List from Outperform Capgemini, target 34 eur -- Reiterate Selected List E.ON, ups target to 72 eur from 70, raises estimates -- Outperform Altadis, ups target to 37.1 eur, raises estimates -- Selected List Thales, ups target to 39 eur from 36

SG SECURITIES
Upgrade Buy from hold Foncia, fair value 92 eur -- Initiate Sell Laurus, fair value 3.9 eur

NOMURA
Downgrade Neutral from buy Telecom Italia

SANFORD BERNSTEIN
Downgrade Market Perform from outperform L&G, ups target to 113 pence from 110

BRIDGEWELL SECURITIES
Downgrade Neutral from Core Holding Halma -- Initiate Core Holding Severfield-Rowen

WILLIAMS DE BROE
Upgrade Buy from hold Bodycote -- Upgrade Buy from hold Swiss Life

ARBUTHNOT
Downgrade Hold from buy Ultraframe

SEYMOUR PIERCE
Upgrade Outperform from underperform Dewhurst

TEATHER & GREENWOOD
General retailers Christmas preview: Upgrade Buy from hold Woolworths; Trading Sell WH Smith (fundamental Hold) and Austin Reed (fundamental Hold); Trading Buy Boots (fundamental Hold), and House of Fraser (fundamental Hold)

ALTIUM SECURITIES
Downgrade Sell from hold Ultraframe

JP MORGAN
European Software & Services: Initiate Overweight Indra Sistemes, target 13.5 eur; Initiate Overweight Capgemini, target 28 eur; Initiate Neutral Tietoenator, target 23 eur; Initiate Overweight Atos Origin, target 60 eur --Reiterate Neutral Smiths Group, ups target to 820 pence from 790, raises estimates

CSFB
Reiterate Underperform Scor, cuts target to 1.15 eur from 6

LEHMAN BROTHERS
Reiterate Overweight BAE Systems, cuts estimates, lowers target to 290 pence from 305

WESTLB
Reiterate Neutral Schwarz Pharma, ups target to 33 eur from 32

PANMURE GORDON
Reiterate Sell Pendragon, cuts target to 230 pence from 250

Mega Bucks - 07 Dec 2004 12:28 - 16 of 19

long ARM 104.25 s/l on

Mega Bucks - 07 Dec 2004 14:22 - 17 of 19

long RGU 89.50 s/l on

Mega Bucks - 07 Dec 2004 14:32 - 18 of 19

long BLND 813 s/l on

Mega Bucks - 07 Dec 2004 14:54 - 19 of 19

short RTO 141.25 s/l on
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