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Traders Thread - Monday 4th April (TRAD)     

Greystone - 03 Apr 2005 14:34

Greystone - 04 Apr 2005 06:29 - 9 of 18

Good morning traders!

Asian markets this morning are all pretty flat. Oil-related stocks have been by far the most active.

At 4.30 am, New York's main contract light sweet crude for May delivery was trading at $57.53 a barrel, up 26 cents from $57.27 in New York.

London and Toronto-listed European Minerals Corporation (EMC) is seeking between C$60m-C$90m from an equity issue to fund the development of its majority owned Varvarinskoye copper-gold project in the north Kazakhstan...

Back with breaking news in a mo.....

Happy trading!

G.

Digger - 04 Apr 2005 06:30 - 10 of 18

The following is a compilation of results for UK smaller companies due out in the two weeks to April 15.

MONDAY APRIL 4
Alexon Group PLC watchers will be keen for an update on the consequences of the Allders administration. Alexon said in January that Allders Department Stores owed it 1.5 mln stg in respect of concession takings net of commission and VAT.
Meanwhile, Alexon investors will be looking for a resumption of share buybacks in the near future. In terms of the business, the key issue is whether management can sort out the problems in Bay Trading.
Mark Charnock of Investec Securities sets his sights on year to January 2005 pretax profits of 30.7 mln stg, down from 32.7 mln, for EPS of 35.6 pence against 39.1. The dividend total is expected to rise to 8.5 pence from 7.5.

Burren Energy PLC recently provided an update on operations at M'Boundi in Congo (Brazzaville), where it has a 35 pct interest. Apart from a pair of well results -- one good and one not so good -- Burren also revealed that Total has improved the terms of trade for oil produced from M'Boundi.
Subject to the completion of certain modifications at its Djeno terminal, which should be completed by the end of September, the French oil major will incorporate crude from M'Boundi into the N'Kossa blend.
The alterations necessary at the Djeno terminal will be paid for by the M'Boundi partners and will cost around 15 mln usd.
Nevertheless, even after taking account of this and the relatively low price currently being achieved by M'Boundi crude, Richard Slape of housebroker Seymour Pierce has stepped up his estimate of Burren's net asset value by 9 pence a share to 597 pence.
On the profits front, the analyst looks for year to December 2004 pretax of 51.3 mln stg, up from 18.4 mln. A 3.00 pence dividend total (nil) would be covered by EPS of 25.9 pence against 16.8.

TUESDAY APRIL 5
Whatman PLC, which supplies separations technology to the life sciences industry, warned in December that its restructuring will result in a loss of around 160 jobs, taking the headcount of the combined group to around 1000.
This will give rise to a one off cost of 11.4 mln stg.
Together with other costs, the company's total exceptional charges will be 14.6 mln stg, of which the pretax cash cost is 13.8 mln stg.
Whatman watchers were not particularly concerned that restructuring costs were likely to be some 3 mln stg more than expected, but were rattled by news that revenue was expected to be some 3 pct below consensus forecasts.
Against the backdrop of the higher than expected exceptional charge and slightly poorer performance from the underlying Whatman business, Elizabeth Klein of Baird Equities downgraded her forecasts for the year to December 2004.
The analyst now looks for pretax profits of 16.1 mln stg, up from 13.9 mln. A 4.5 pence (4.3) dividend total would be covered by EPS of 15.2 pence against 7.5.
Over at Investec, Sebastien Jantet predicts pretax of 17.2 mln stg, and a 4.68 pence payout.

WEDNESDAY APRIL 6
Recruitment group MSB International PLC said in January that it was trading in line with market expectations.
With a better temp/perm split likely in 2005 (courtesy of the acquisition of perm business Elite), net fee income should move ahead, helped by the stronger growth in perm activity, said Ian Jermin of Baird Equities.
Meanwhile, Jermin sets his sights on year to January 2005 pretax profits of 700,000 stg, up from 300,000 stg, for EPS of 2.7 pence against 0.8. A similar 3.0 pence dividend is anticipated.

Robotic Technology Systems PLC could pick up around 10 mln stg of cash from its disposal of Wright and surplus property -- and there is the possibility of a substantial return of cash to shareholders and the payment of a maiden dividend for 2005, analysts believe.
The company said in January its expects to post year to December 2004 pretax profits for continuing operations, excluding exceptional items, discontinued operations, goodwill amortisation and currency translation effects of not less than 2.0 mln stg. It incurred losses of 3.6 mln in the previous year.
The 2004 results will, it said, include the impact of restructuring in the Life Science operation, resulting in exceptional costs of about 1.8 mln stg, including the impairment of some capitalised software development costs and a change to specific warranty cost provisioning, it said.
"Each of the three continuing business units is expected to have traded profitably in the year before exceptional items," the company said.
Looking ahead, Teather & Greenwood analyst Mark Paddon predicts 2005 pretax profits of 3.25 mln stg, along with a maiden 1.50 pence payout.

THURSDAY APRIL 7
Chelford Group PLC made excellent progress in 2004, resulting in a significant improvement over the preceding year in both revenues and pre-tax profits, the IT supply chain software and services company said in its January update.
"A strong order pipeline within both the SSI and SAP divisions gives us confidence for our 2005 financial year," said Trevor Lewis, Chelford's chief executive.
Contracted orders already account for some 66 pct of Chelford's operating costs for the coming year, of which 43 pct is recurring revenue.
The group said both the SSI and SAP divisions traded profitably "and as a result, Chelford will have achieved a profit both before and after tax and goodwill amortisation in line with market expectations".
Progress in the first half was sustained in the second, cash flow continued positive and Chelford has ended the year with net cash of 2.1 mln stg.
Analysts look for year to December 2004 pretax profits of 900,000 stg, up from 400,000 stg.

Last year's acquisitions saw International Energy Group PLC using its balance sheet more -- a move to be welcomed in the context of the company's relatively predictable cash flow.
Growth within Portugal has been slowed by economic recession, and high and volatile LPG prices, and mild weather have left their mark within the Isle of Man/Channell Islands.
Investec Securities' Jonathan Copus believes IEG has further balance sheet capacity, which leaves room for continued organic and acquisitional growth.
The analyst forecasts year to December 2004 pretax profits of 13.5 mln stg, up from 10.7 mln. A 6.47 pence dividend total, up from 6.02, is anticipated.

Greystone - 04 Apr 2005 07:15 - 11 of 18

Nearly 100 fire officers are trying to put out a major fire at a food factory near Hull. Workers on the night shift at Geest's food factory in Barton-upon-Humber have been led to safety.

Digger - 04 Apr 2005 07:18 - 12 of 18

MARKETS
Tokyo: Nikkei midday 11,677.23 down 46.40
Hang Seng midday 13,487.17 down 4.18

BREAKING NEWS - MONDAY
* Mourning for Pope to draw 2 mln pilgrims; Vatican prepares conclave to elect successor; 22 world leaders expected to attend funeral - FT
* PM delays launching election campaign as mark of respect - FT
* Morgan Stanley chief claims critics are risking damage to the bank's business - FT
* TESCO and Asda invest 167 mln stg to fuel supermarket price war - FT
* RDF MEDIA, the independent TV production house behind Wife Swap and Faking It, will announce plans for a listing on AIM valuing the company at 50 mln stg to 60 mln - FT
* o2 will today announce the mobile phone industry's first technology tie-up to provide stock market data, foreign exchange and other financial news to wireless customers; the company has signed a deal with KNOWLEDGE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS to offer real-time market data to mobiles - FT
* South African government could approve a bid by BARCLAYS to buy a majority stake in South African bank Absa for 2 bln stg possibly as early as this week - FT
* Five days to rescue Rover as Chinese blow cold on deal; administration by Friday without 100 mln stg government loan; officials in crisis talks - Independent
* The Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation receives a confidential report by Ernst & Young which suggests that MG Rover's parent company would be insolvent by March 31 - Times
* President of Opec, Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah, urges member countries to begin talks on boosting output in an effort to bring prices down from their current record levels - Express

MONDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Tax, Mandatory bids, Futures exchanges
Independent
Small Talk: Stephen Foley comments on MKM, VOLEX (company's future is far from assured), SINCLAIR PHARMA (wins European permission to launch its latest skin cream), NYATI (float pulled)

Digger - 04 Apr 2005 07:36 - 13 of 18

Shares in Smith & Nephew PLC have been upgraded to 'overweight' from 'neutral' at JP Morgan, dealers said.
The US broker said in a note to clients that despite last week's news that the group has received a subpoena from the US Department of Justice requesting information on its consulting contracts with certain US orthopedic surgeons, it expects a limited impact on the shares' long term fundamentals.
Therefore, given the recent share price weakness, JP Morgan has raised its stance on the shares.
The broker argued the number of surgeons which the investigation is likely to cover is "small" and its timescale should be relatively short.
JP Morgan said it still likes Smith & Nephew for its "high quality EPS growth" and its "proven ability to take share in the global reconstructive implant market".
It maintained its 583 pence price target on the shares.

daves dazzlers - 04 Apr 2005 07:52 - 14 of 18

Morning all.

Digger - 04 Apr 2005 07:54 - 15 of 18

Shares in Northern Rock PLC will be eyed in open deals after the mortgage bank released an in-line trading update, though failed to update the market on margins, said traders.
Northern Rock said trading in the first quarter of 2005 had been in line with its long-term targets of achieving annual asset growth of 20 pct and pretax profit growth of 15 pct.
As a result, Northern Rock said it was "comfortable" with the current consensus forecast, which calls for a 2005 pretax profits of around 475 mln stg.
Panmure Gordon reiterated its 'buy' rating on Northern Rock, noting the trading statement looks strong.
The broker highlighted that the group's residential lending pipeline is flat year-on-year at 4.5 bln stg, which is solid given that the industry as a whole is down.
There is no news on margins however, noted Panmure, adding it expects these to be lower.
CSFB recently downgraded Northern Rock to 'underperform' on concerns that mortgage and consumer credit volumes are slowing, which could affect margins.
Traders pointed out Northern Rock's share price was strong on both Thursday and Friday of last week, so they expect to see it trade down around 0.5 pct at the open.

Druid2 - 04 Apr 2005 07:57 - 16 of 18

Morning all.

Digger - 04 Apr 2005 09:45 - 17 of 18

CENTRICA UPPED TO 'BUY' FROM 'ADD' BY ABN AMRO, TARGET 270 PENCE

Digger - 04 Apr 2005 09:53 - 18 of 18

UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.


GOLDMAN SACHS
Europe Oil & Gas: Ups sector stance to Neutral from cautious; raises Brent crude estimates, ups fair values by 10 pct; Upgrade In-line from underperform Statoil; Downgrade Underperform from in-line Royal Dutch; Downgrade Underperform from in-line Shell

UBS
Downgrade Neutral from buy Chrysalis, cuts target to 188 pence from 212 -- Upgrade Neutral from reduce Viridian, ups target to 725 pence from 680 -- Upgrade Buy from hold Actelion, target 145 sfr, valuation grounds -- Downgrade Neutral from buy Taylor Woodrow, ups target to 340 pence from 330, raises estimates -- Upgrade Buy from neutral Swedbank, ups target to 200 skr from 180 -- Reiterate Reduce Arriva, cuts target to 500 pence from 515

CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY
Downgrade Hold from buy Finmeccanica, ups target to 0.78 eur from 0.75 -- Upgrade Hold from sell Fortum, cuts target to 11.5 eur from 13.5 -- Reiterate Buy Continental, ups target to 75 eur from 55, raises estimates

JP MORGAN
Upgrade Overweight from neutral Smith & Nephew, unchanged target 583 pence

ABN AMRO
Upgrade Buy from add Centrica, target 270 pence -- Downgrade Sell from buy Renold, cuts target to 50 eur from 85

BRIDGEWELL SECURITIES
Downgrade Neutral from overweight Cosalt, cuts estimates

INVESTEC
Oil & Gas review: Raises Brent crude forecast by 25 pct for 2005 to 45.5 usd a barrel, ups 2006 by 23 pct to 40 usd, and 2007 by 17 pct to 35 usd; Upgrade to Buy Burren Energy, ups NAV estimates by 16 pct to 543 pence; Reiterate Buy JKX Oil & Gas, ups NAV estimate by 22 pct to 146 pence

SG SECURITIES
Upgrade Buy from hold Inditex, ups fair value by 14 pct to 25.1, raises estimates -- Reiterate Buy Continental, ups fair value to 75 eur from 65

ING
Upgrade Buy from hold Capitalia

SEYMOUR PIERCE
Initiate Buy Xansa

MORGAN STANLEY
European & Global Model Portfolios: Add Schroders (Overweight) -- Reiterate Overweight Slough Estates, cuts target to 550 pence from 620, reduces estimates -- Overweight TPG, ups target to 25 eur from 23 -- Equal-weight Victrex, ups target to 430 pence from 420, raises estimates

LEHMAN
European Recommended Portfolio: Remove Santander; increase weightings in RBoS

CSFB
Reiterate Outperform ABB, ups target to 9.0 eur from 7.7

DEUTSCHE BANK
Reiterate Buy FKI, cuts target to 135 pence from 145 -- Hold Scottish & Southern Energy, ups target to 800 pence from 625 -- Hold RHI, ups target to 24 eur from 18 -- Hold Tele Atlas, ups target to 14.5 eur from 8.6

CA CHEUVREUX
Reiterate Outperform Assystem Brime, ups target to 25 eur from 23 -- Outperform Manitou, ups target to 35 eur from 32, raises estimates

EXANE BNP PARIBAS
Reiterate Underperform San Paolo IMI, ups target to 11.0 eur from 10.2 -- Outperform Assytem Brime, ups target to 21.0 eur from 18.8

PANMURE GORDON
Reiterate Buy Barclays, ups target to 625 pence from 590
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