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Choco,

I've been trying to find the bit in McAfee that tells me what's blocked and what's allowed so I could compare against your screenshot. I know it's there somewhere because I found it by accident the other day. Do you think I can find it now?

Why do they make these things so blooming complicated?

Sshhh - Dezza thinks we're smart ;)

Housing starts for October will be made public at the bond market open Tuesday morning. Analysts expect a decline from September, down to 1.175 million from 1.191 million. The report is a measure of residential units on which construction is begun each month. Along with housing starts are building permits, which keep track of permits taken out in order to allow excavation. Analysts expect a decline in building permits as well, down to 1.2 million from 1.261 million. Troubles in the housing market are ongoing, making this report important to investors searching for a bottom in the declining market.

The FOMC minutes from the October 30 - 31 revealed at 2:00 pm ET Tuesday will be of a groundbreaking variety. They represent a shift from a system that has been in place since 1979 of bi annual economic projections spanning two years from the Federal Reserve. However, as announced last week, the FOMC revealed that it will now deliver these projections four times a year and extend the projection horizon from two to three years.

Weekly initial jobless claims, the Michigan Sentiment Review, and crude inventories will all be released Wednesday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, on which the markets will be closed. On Friday there is an early close, scheduled for 2:00 pm ET.

Thanks Hils.
So they'll be launching a few mortars then.

And suddenly everything's come to a nail polish moment.
Time for a nice long bubble.

A little bit of reading for those nail polishing moments!

Is Economic Terrorism Right
Around the Corner?

By Andrew Gordon
Dear Reader,
I mustve missed the handshake. You know, the one that consigns the U.S. to second-tier economic status.
Ive been looking all over the Internet for a picture of our president shaking hands with one of Chinas leaders. Cant find it anywhere.
Maybe it happened away from the bright lights of the media. But it mustve taken place. How else can you explain the way these two giant economies mesh?
We give China what they want and they return the favor. Its the perfect marriage.
Or is it?
You already know that weve spent ourselves into a big black hole. Debt stinks that goes as much for countries as it does for people.
But as weve learned in the U.S., debt is not such a big deal if you have a cooperative bank willing to continually lend you money to help you pay bills and buy stuff.
Weve also learned that these banks can turn stingy in a heartbeat.
The U.S. has its own cooperative bank. Its called China. Every time we issue debt (our Treasury notes), China steps to the plate. We couldnt ask for a more understanding bank.
China allows us to keep spending. And when we go to the store and spend, we end up buying lots of Chinese goods.
Were Chinas main market. And all our spending allows China to do what is most important to them grow their economy.
Our top priority? Well, its obviously not getting out of debt.
Could it be economic growth, like Chinas? Seems like when the economy is growing, good things happen.
But the thing is, we cant grow unless we spend. Consumer spending fuels two-thirds of our economy.
government is in hoc. And we, as individuals, are also in hoc.
If it werent for China, wed be feeling a lot poorer right now.
Heaven forbid, we might feel compelled to deal with our debt. And theres really only one way to do that.
Get out of debt.
And the only way to do that is to spend less and save more.
And what if we did?
Theres no doubt that economic growth would suffer. There would be more layoffs and fewer raises. In fact, things could get so bad that we could end up spending less and saving less. After all, if youre unemployed, its pretty hard to save.
Thats why our understanding with China gets so little mention anywhere, including economic summits like the G-20 meeting that just took place this past weekend in South Africa.
The falling dollar dominated discussions. And China got a lot of the blame for protecting the unfair advantage its exporters have, thanks to the undervalued Yuan. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said that the Yuan is causing tensions, and Canada's Jim Flaherty said China (and other Asian countries) need to do more.
That may be true, but the much greater unfair advantage is baked into our economic relationship. China is growing their economy on the back of an expanding American debt.
And instead of telling them to stop, our politicians, economists, and Wall Street shake at the thought of China one day refusing to buy our Treasury notes.
Meanwhile, diplomats everywhere are pushing for a stronger Yuan. But maybe the U.S. (if not other countries) should think twice. If a stronger Yuan does manage to cut back Chinese export earnings, the Chinese government in turn may one day have to cut back on the amount of government debt they buy from the U.S.
Then all hell would break loose.
We should never be this dependent on another country, even if its our closest ally.
And as we all know, China is no ally. Nor is it our enemy. It is something in between, which means that we are just as likely to agree as disagree on an issue.
We have opened ourselves to economic blackmail and the opening is getting bigger, not smaller.
If you think our interests and Chinas are destined to align more closely, maybe this is not such a big deal.
But from Taiwan to the chase for dwindling resources to geopolitical competition in Asia, Africa and South America, our interests diverge. I dont see that changing anytime soon.
As investors in China, we tend to think that all the risks come from an overheated market and an economy where graft and gross inefficiencies go hand-in-hand.
Investors ignore, at their own peril, that our economic relationship with China is plainly said rotten to the core.
Good Investing,

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy will slow by more than previously thought in 2008 but inflation will remain tame, according to the economic forecasts of top Federal Reserve officials released for the first time on Tuesday. Fed officials said growth would slow to a range of 1.8% to 2.5% next year, down from growth around 2.45% in 2007. Some Fed officials were more pessimistic, putting growth down as low as 1.6% next year. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to about 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2008, up from the latest reading in October. Inflation is expected to remain contained. Headline inflation, as measured by the PCE index, is expected to slow to 1.8%-2.1% in 2008, down from around 2.95% this year. Core inflation will remain steady in a range of 1.7%-1.9%. The Fed forecasts go out to 2010. The Fed sees the economy growing at a moderate pace in the neighborhood of 2.6% in 2009 and 2010, with a steady unemployment rate and continued low inflation

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Many of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee said the quarter-point rate cut on Oct. 31 was a "close call," according to a summary of the closed-door meeting released Tuesday. It was not clear from the summary what tipped the scale in favor of a rate cut. Many FOMC members did say that the Fed easing this fall "could readily be reversed" if necessary. The summary said that "most" FOMC members saw substaintial downside risks to the outlook. They viewed the rate cut as "valuable additional insurance" against unexpected severe weakening. Financial market conditions were viewed as "still fragile." The Fed voted 9 to 1 to trim the Federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5%Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig voted against the cut, predicting "reasonable" growth in coming

some points to be had here if you know what you are doing I guess.

All a bit scary for a newbie like me.

one would like if the last cut was a close call the likelyhood of another is not 96% as was being called beforehand so this would strengthen the dollar yet i don't see alot of evidence of this in the fx markets. Equities don't like it yet cable and eurusd initially went up on the minutes.

If i've got this wrong if someone could take the time to explain I'd be very grateful

anyway took a few points short on eurusd and now long usdchf at 1.170. Fingers crossed. Not planning to be in usdchf for long as i'm fighting the long term trend
edit :closed for -3. Not sure i should have taken the trade in the first place. going long against that severe a downtrend isn't really very clever.

Gulf States ponder their Dollar pegs
Investors to watch GCC meeting next month for any hints of change

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve's policy meeting next month isn't the only meeting that could determine the dollar's near-term direction -- investors will be closely watching the Gulf Cooperation Council's meeting for clues about the future of its member countries' currency pegs to the greenback.

Cap'n - some might argue that the statement hasn't changed the view that there is a better than 50% chance that the Fed will cut again in December - the bond market is saying they are still cutting, but Fed officials in speeches during the last few weeks have refuted this.

Here's something for you to ponder though (if you haven't already) with regard to the likes of Cable and Euro. If the debt bubble is totally dependent on rising asset prices which subsequently fall, the debt has to be repaid. Most of the debt originated in US dollars, because their interest rates were the lowest - and as we know it has been recycled into a myriad of other things. If the debt has to be repaid, you have to buy dollars. We had a sharp taster during the first emergence of the credit crunchies in August, resulting in a strong surge in the Dollar and a swift unwinding of the carry trades.

Round and round in circles we go ...

MPC Minutes

I've been trying to learn fx now for 2 weeks. I started out knowing very very little TA. I knew about trendlines support/resistance and rsi.

I guess i've spent about 100 hours watching the market and reading article and article and article trying to work this out.

The first week I spend paper trading and made 92pips. I reckoned that with real money that would probably mean say 50pips. I really hadn't got a clue what I was doing to be honest - all i was using was trendlines and trying to either get on the trend or trade within a channel. Surprisingly this appeared enough to actually make some positive pips although retrospecively i do wonder whether actually the pips may have come trading any pair with a yen in it which in many ways just act as a proxy for the indices and fear and greed.

the second week I made 139 pips so that's 139 ;-)

It was 2 days ago that suddenly a light came on with fx. I can't even remember what it was now but in that instant suddenly that feeling of wallowing around not really knowing what i was doing and feeling as if I was out of my depth was replaced with something along those the lines of "oh that's what those 100 articles I've read were going on about - why didn't I see it before"
And yesterday I had another such moment when in the morning when some of the pairs suddenly moved up and I realised it wasn't chance or "random noise" in the system but it was actually predictable. Same thing happenned again in the evening with the gbpyen and usdyen.

What i'm getting round to saying is that there appear to be a number of traders thinking about trading fx instead of stocks and if they are interested enough to read this thread then maybe this will be useful to them.

This is my outlook on the matter.

Maybe you don't need ever so much skill to turn 20 pips a day but it's taken me best part of 2 weeks to actually get to the stage where I think I may now have enough of an understanding about fx that I have a credible plan of how to make money at this rather than trading by the seat of my pants.
I suspect my plan is actually naive in the extreme as my level of TA is certainly still more like an ant than a giANT but at least i've got something to build on now.

maybe i'm a bit thick and what it took me 100 hours to absorb some could do in half that time but however you look at it I don't think FX is just something you can pick up and succeed at straight away - or maybe you can if all you want to ever make is 20 pips a day

ok here we are at...2.06 ish cable...

lets here the case for...2.1200 again...and the one for...2.0000 by year end since we are 1/2 way inbetween....

dont all rush at once....

Purely for a bit of fun, a quick look at the cable daily chart shows 7 up/down legs in the last 12 months. The average length of each leg is therefore about 52 days.

On the basis that the MACD on the dailies is currently heading down and that we are therefore currently on a down leg since the high of 9th November, then it's probably a fair estimate that the low of the current downleg will occur sometime around Xmas (counting 52 days on).

In addition, rising support for the uptrend since Feb 2006 is currently around $2.02, so I also think it fair to assume that might also prove to be the floor of the downleg.

Unless that support gets broken of course.

Conclusion: I haven't got a Scooby.

:o)

Statistically, a break of the rising support is more likely to happen after it has failed to push up to a higher high rather than before.

It's my best guess therefore that cable will floor above $2.02 before having another crack at $2.11.

"Paulson predicts a long-term dollar recovery - Xinhua, 22/11/07"

Never fear Paulson is here ;-)

Here's something to cheer you all up :

http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/3249

Chocopops,

Are you lurking? Tempted by a EUR/JPY long at around 159.70 to hold over the weekend based on the signals. Normally I'd press the button no questions asked, but a bit unsure today in the quiet trade after Thanksgiving.

Ooops Hils, sorry - was out having my monthly OK and Hello fix when you posted.
Looking just about good to push through on the 1 hourly now, innit - hope you were tempted :o)

I took it and stop's now to entry, Choco, so I can sit back and leave it now.

I was just a bit concerned that the signal might not be 100% genuine what with the holiday. I didn't want to be sat there on a Friday night in a sideways market wondering wondering whether or not I'd done the right thing. But then if you ain't innit, you won't winnit.

edit: Also took some cable too. :o)