Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Cap'n - some might argue that the statement hasn't changed the view that there is a better than 50% chance that the Fed will cut again in December - the bond market is saying they are still cutting, but Fed officials in speeches during the last few weeks have refuted this.

Here's something for you to ponder though (if you haven't already) with regard to the likes of Cable and Euro. If the debt bubble is totally dependent on rising asset prices which subsequently fall, the debt has to be repaid. Most of the debt originated in US dollars, because their interest rates were the lowest - and as we know it has been recycled into a myriad of other things. If the debt has to be repaid, you have to buy dollars. We had a sharp taster during the first emergence of the credit crunchies in August, resulting in a strong surge in the Dollar and a swift unwinding of the carry trades.

Round and round in circles we go ...

MPC Minutes

I've been trying to learn fx now for 2 weeks. I started out knowing very very little TA. I knew about trendlines support/resistance and rsi.

I guess i've spent about 100 hours watching the market and reading article and article and article trying to work this out.

The first week I spend paper trading and made 92pips. I reckoned that with real money that would probably mean say 50pips. I really hadn't got a clue what I was doing to be honest - all i was using was trendlines and trying to either get on the trend or trade within a channel. Surprisingly this appeared enough to actually make some positive pips although retrospecively i do wonder whether actually the pips may have come trading any pair with a yen in it which in many ways just act as a proxy for the indices and fear and greed.

the second week I made 139 pips so that's 139 ;-)

It was 2 days ago that suddenly a light came on with fx. I can't even remember what it was now but in that instant suddenly that feeling of wallowing around not really knowing what i was doing and feeling as if I was out of my depth was replaced with something along those the lines of "oh that's what those 100 articles I've read were going on about - why didn't I see it before"
And yesterday I had another such moment when in the morning when some of the pairs suddenly moved up and I realised it wasn't chance or "random noise" in the system but it was actually predictable. Same thing happenned again in the evening with the gbpyen and usdyen.

What i'm getting round to saying is that there appear to be a number of traders thinking about trading fx instead of stocks and if they are interested enough to read this thread then maybe this will be useful to them.

This is my outlook on the matter.

Maybe you don't need ever so much skill to turn 20 pips a day but it's taken me best part of 2 weeks to actually get to the stage where I think I may now have enough of an understanding about fx that I have a credible plan of how to make money at this rather than trading by the seat of my pants.
I suspect my plan is actually naive in the extreme as my level of TA is certainly still more like an ant than a giANT but at least i've got something to build on now.

maybe i'm a bit thick and what it took me 100 hours to absorb some could do in half that time but however you look at it I don't think FX is just something you can pick up and succeed at straight away - or maybe you can if all you want to ever make is 20 pips a day

ok here we are at...2.06 ish cable...

lets here the case for...2.1200 again...and the one for...2.0000 by year end since we are 1/2 way inbetween....

dont all rush at once....

Purely for a bit of fun, a quick look at the cable daily chart shows 7 up/down legs in the last 12 months. The average length of each leg is therefore about 52 days.

On the basis that the MACD on the dailies is currently heading down and that we are therefore currently on a down leg since the high of 9th November, then it's probably a fair estimate that the low of the current downleg will occur sometime around Xmas (counting 52 days on).

In addition, rising support for the uptrend since Feb 2006 is currently around $2.02, so I also think it fair to assume that might also prove to be the floor of the downleg.

Unless that support gets broken of course.

Conclusion: I haven't got a Scooby.

:o)

Statistically, a break of the rising support is more likely to happen after it has failed to push up to a higher high rather than before.

It's my best guess therefore that cable will floor above $2.02 before having another crack at $2.11.

"Paulson predicts a long-term dollar recovery - Xinhua, 22/11/07"

Never fear Paulson is here ;-)

Here's something to cheer you all up :

http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/3249

Chocopops,

Are you lurking? Tempted by a EUR/JPY long at around 159.70 to hold over the weekend based on the signals. Normally I'd press the button no questions asked, but a bit unsure today in the quiet trade after Thanksgiving.

Ooops Hils, sorry - was out having my monthly OK and Hello fix when you posted.
Looking just about good to push through on the 1 hourly now, innit - hope you were tempted :o)

I took it and stop's now to entry, Choco, so I can sit back and leave it now.

I was just a bit concerned that the signal might not be 100% genuine what with the holiday. I didn't want to be sat there on a Friday night in a sideways market wondering wondering whether or not I'd done the right thing. But then if you ain't innit, you won't winnit.

edit: Also took some cable too. :o)

wondering if we will wake up to a 107.50 USD / Yen tomorrow morning?

its already there!

No need to wait until tomorrow morning

The dollar slumped in afternoon dealing versus its major counterparts on Monday amid ongoing concerns about the health of the housing and financial sectors. Wall Street stocks turned negative over the course of the day, with concerns about the fallout from the recent credit crunch offsetting encouraging signs from the retail holiday shopping period.The economic calendar is light until Wednesday, when traders will get to assess a deluge of key US data.The dollar softened in late-day dealing versus the euro on Monday, inching closer to last week''s record low. The dollar slipped to 1.4880 by 3:30 pm ET, down from an overnight high of 1.4804. Concerns about the health of the US economy and speculation that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates before the end of the year caused the dollar to hit an all-time low of 1.4966.The dollar plunged to a fresh 2-year low versus the yen on Monday, with most of its losses coming in late-day trading. The dollar fell to 107.50 a half hour before the closing bell on Wall Street, down from an morning level near 108.50.The dollar lost ground to the sterling on Monday, slipping to 2.0730 after starting the day near the 2.06 mark. Versus the Canadian dollar, the dollar remained range-bound, moving near .9850 for much of the session. Despite repeated attempts, the dollar has been unable to rally back above par versus the loonie, having charged back from a record low of .9050 earlier this month.

lol yes...did I say 107.50

must have meant 106.00 :)

I don't know if this is of use to anyone.

http://www.tradingfxonline.com/home.aspx from Man Financial

Spreads appear to be as low as 1 pip even on many crosses. Even audusd and usdchf shown as 1 pip most of the time. gbpjpy at 3 pips or so.

$100,000 minimum trade size I think.

Cable hits the trend line at just above 2.06 but I can't see any good reason to go long.

staying out and waiting for 2.0585 but I probably won't take that either.

Small short Yen around 110.00
Small long...Cable around 2.0600

ok simple question for the all knowing Forex gurus...

The Uk seems less and less likely to be hosting the "3 cuts a charm" anytime soon..

US rates increasingly likely to be cut...

Why is Cable not heading back to 2.10 a bit sharpish...