Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Purely for a bit of fun, a quick look at the cable daily chart shows 7 up/down legs in the last 12 months. The average length of each leg is therefore about 52 days.

On the basis that the MACD on the dailies is currently heading down and that we are therefore currently on a down leg since the high of 9th November, then it's probably a fair estimate that the low of the current downleg will occur sometime around Xmas (counting 52 days on).

In addition, rising support for the uptrend since Feb 2006 is currently around $2.02, so I also think it fair to assume that might also prove to be the floor of the downleg.

Unless that support gets broken of course.

Conclusion: I haven't got a Scooby.

:o)

Statistically, a break of the rising support is more likely to happen after it has failed to push up to a higher high rather than before.

It's my best guess therefore that cable will floor above $2.02 before having another crack at $2.11.

"Paulson predicts a long-term dollar recovery - Xinhua, 22/11/07"

Never fear Paulson is here ;-)

Here's something to cheer you all up :

http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/3249

Chocopops,

Are you lurking? Tempted by a EUR/JPY long at around 159.70 to hold over the weekend based on the signals. Normally I'd press the button no questions asked, but a bit unsure today in the quiet trade after Thanksgiving.

Ooops Hils, sorry - was out having my monthly OK and Hello fix when you posted.
Looking just about good to push through on the 1 hourly now, innit - hope you were tempted :o)

I took it and stop's now to entry, Choco, so I can sit back and leave it now.

I was just a bit concerned that the signal might not be 100% genuine what with the holiday. I didn't want to be sat there on a Friday night in a sideways market wondering wondering whether or not I'd done the right thing. But then if you ain't innit, you won't winnit.

edit: Also took some cable too. :o)

wondering if we will wake up to a 107.50 USD / Yen tomorrow morning?

its already there!

No need to wait until tomorrow morning

The dollar slumped in afternoon dealing versus its major counterparts on Monday amid ongoing concerns about the health of the housing and financial sectors. Wall Street stocks turned negative over the course of the day, with concerns about the fallout from the recent credit crunch offsetting encouraging signs from the retail holiday shopping period.The economic calendar is light until Wednesday, when traders will get to assess a deluge of key US data.The dollar softened in late-day dealing versus the euro on Monday, inching closer to last week''s record low. The dollar slipped to 1.4880 by 3:30 pm ET, down from an overnight high of 1.4804. Concerns about the health of the US economy and speculation that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates before the end of the year caused the dollar to hit an all-time low of 1.4966.The dollar plunged to a fresh 2-year low versus the yen on Monday, with most of its losses coming in late-day trading. The dollar fell to 107.50 a half hour before the closing bell on Wall Street, down from an morning level near 108.50.The dollar lost ground to the sterling on Monday, slipping to 2.0730 after starting the day near the 2.06 mark. Versus the Canadian dollar, the dollar remained range-bound, moving near .9850 for much of the session. Despite repeated attempts, the dollar has been unable to rally back above par versus the loonie, having charged back from a record low of .9050 earlier this month.

lol yes...did I say 107.50

must have meant 106.00 :)

I don't know if this is of use to anyone.

http://www.tradingfxonline.com/home.aspx from Man Financial

Spreads appear to be as low as 1 pip even on many crosses. Even audusd and usdchf shown as 1 pip most of the time. gbpjpy at 3 pips or so.

$100,000 minimum trade size I think.

Cable hits the trend line at just above 2.06 but I can't see any good reason to go long.

staying out and waiting for 2.0585 but I probably won't take that either.

Small short Yen around 110.00
Small long...Cable around 2.0600

ok simple question for the all knowing Forex gurus...

The Uk seems less and less likely to be hosting the "3 cuts a charm" anytime soon..

US rates increasingly likely to be cut...

Why is Cable not heading back to 2.10 a bit sharpish...

Cos it's Friday :o)

same question for eurusd here.


eur moving up against yen and swiss
gbp moving up against yen

yet neither cable or eurusd are moving up.


most puzzled here - do they have month end rigging on FX the same way they do on stocks ?

More and more I favour yen pair trades.
Dollar's lost any interest for me at the moment.

I can see why....